Age old collecting conundrum
 

Very scarce item on eBay. . .

Not in great demand as its been sitting for months . . . .

Never see it . . .

Could literally wait for years to see another . . .

Or never see another . . .

Not cheap . . .

Way over priced . . . .

If I buy it will kick myself for paying a stupid price . . .

If someone else grabs it I will kick myself for not biting the bullet.

Question is?
 

Do you want it? Can you afford it? Do you plan to keep it?

If all three are a "YES!"... Buy it!

Yeah. . . and next week one will show up at an auction in better shape at half the price. lol.

If I can hold out for eBay bucks and at least get $100 credit in the process will take the plunge.

How many cards, things etc. have you NOT bought that STILL haunt you to this day?

How many cards, things, etc. have you bought that you look at and say "I paid WAAAAAY too much for this" versus "You know, I'm glad that I bought this!"...

BUY IT!

As they say on tv, "the time to buy one of these is the time you see it."
I usually talk myself into thinking that I was right to buy whatever I buy.

Then dollar cost average;)

The way I look at this is, if $100 is really enough to sway you, and it’s as scarce as you say it is, then buy it immediately. If a nicer one shows up for half the price, buy that one too and sell the first one for what you bought the second one for and consider it a free upgrade!

Yeah, that's a good strategy.

I have never once regretted employing said justification strategy. :)

If it is that scarce how do you even know it is overpriced? If there is enough of a recent history of sales to analyze and determine that the item is overpriced then it isn't scarce.

I run across this all of the time with the stuff I like to collect. How do you evaluate a team-issued card or piece of stadiana that no one has seen before, other than at auction?

You can't distract yourself with 'what if' questions. Odds are your item is not unique and odds are another one will surface. Some day. Maybe. But you can't control that. And even if there is another one for sale next week, so what? So there will then be two of them. They are still scarce.

What the other guys said goes: if you want it and can afford it, go for it.

Well that’s determining a fair price where there is not a readily identifiable market for the item. To say the price is fair because I can afford it is a bit of a slippery slope, isn’t it?

I hated economics in college. Now it’s the most interesting subject in the world to me.

Not really. if the item is so rare that there is no way to research a past price, you just have to rely on personal criteria, can you afford it being one of them. I can only echo what many here have already said: the times I've bought something costly but rare and ended up happy far exceed the times i've bought something costly but rare and ended up regretting it. I recently purchased a very expensive (relatively speaking) previously unknown regional basketball issue. I gulped once and hit the BIN. I do not regret it. Quite the opposite as I now have a pre-rookie Jerry West that i like way more than a 1961 Fleer 'standard' RC. When I go to sell it, if ever, I am confident that a West collector will pay nicely to have it. I can cite item after item where I've done the same thing over the years. There have been clunkers to be sure, but overall it has been both lucrative and enjoyable as a collector to own something unique and valuable.

The other metric that occurs to me as influential is the subject matter. I am way more confident buying a rare item related to a major star than a common from some obscure issue. The superstar item has an appeal far beyond the novelty of the issue. If the choice is between paying $150 for an obscure Cuban tobacco card of an amateur player versus an NL HOFer I am way more likely to pony up for the NLer. That said, I am more of a player than a type collector; others may differ. Having any T231 is appealing to many, but not to me: I would buy a Joe Blow T231 card only to flip it.

Great comments Adam. All true. And I’ve seen some of your exhibits collection. Amazing rare stuff.

I collect art work of one artist. I have an extension collection. I buy every one I can that comes up for auction. Sometimes I’m out bid at a price I’m willing to pay which is usually way more than I want to. My saying is if it was meant to be I’d own it. If not another collector will enjoy it and may sell it again someday.
Buy it If you can afford it and won’t have buyers remorse.

Rare item
 

There is also another angle that you did not mention.
What if you don't buy it and someone else does .
Than another comes up for auction and sells for much more than the one you didn't buy you would also be kicking yourself.
If it makes you happy to own this item I say go for it.
Sometimes you just need to treat yourself and not worry so much about what it will sell for down the road.

Regards
John P

Steve - I hope you buy it. I have "overpaid" for Koufax tickets and programs and other ephemera. A couple of times, it turned out that the seller had 2 tickets or I find another scorecard so I ended up buying the second one for cheaper to dollar cost average down. My regret at seeing another item sell for less than I paid was short-lived. I know it happened, but I can't tell you for which ticket or program. Other times, I still have not seen another (like the Koufax Motel key chain or matchbook) and am glad that I "overpaid".

After you buy it, please post a picture.

Thanks for all the comments. Yes, I bought it. Was made easier last night when I was priced out of a much higher priced item on Goldin. Buying this one seemed like an easy call. An awesome addition to my Gehrig collection.