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#1
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These modern flippers have bid cards up six fold in many cases. When something goes parabolic and finds itself on the other side it can be viscous on the downside. I think we need to look at cards in the aggregate and the game is far from over. My little niche is not indicative of the overall card market but there are zero deals to be had. Every item that has any perceived value is highly contested. When I see Jordan PSA 9's in some cases going for 10k it is hard to suggest the market is soft. My largest client has a lot of business in China. It died for two months and has come roaring back overnight. If this is the case as most expect in the US it isn't long enough of a slump to hurt the market. If someone has to sell during this environment perhaps it is soft but the reality is most of the high profile cards from every genre are in strong hands. I get constant emails asking me to sell cards but the reality is I have no interest. This means higher prices not lower prices. When you control such a large amount of the available inventory it means even higher prices. The people shouting for lower prices don't own the cards. It is that simple. |
#2
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The ebayers have begun trying to strike a chord
"Due to the world's condition, I really shouldn't be buying cards, but I'd offer you half of you asking price"
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"Trolling Ebay right now" © Always looking for signed 1952 topps as well as variations and errors |
#3
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I predict that the market for junk wax is going to take off once their absorptive qualities become better known.
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My blog about collecting cards in Japan: https://baseballcardsinjapan.blogspot.jp/ |
#4
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what We’re seeing is credit deflation in a longer term debt cycle. Each time we had losses, 2001, 2008, 2020, global central banks would reflate is through more debt. At first the debt was mostly at first private, until the great financial crisis (GFC) which was a generational transfer of price to public debt in. Bid to bail out private sector. But each reflation, due to unnaturally low interest rates, market participants understated their cost of capital and led to misuse of capital, ala tech bubble in 2001, real estate in 2008 and the everything bubble in 2019. And each bailout became larger and larger until it is now (hopefully not) seem to be pushing on a string in fed policy.
Coming back to cards, cards appreciated along with every other asset class in this race to zero interest rate policy (zirp). But as we are now in a period of deflation, we will embark on an even bigger globally coordinated stimulus plan so we can one more day, blow bubbles. Which will lead to even higher asset prices, attack of the middle class, further capital moral location and an even larger potential debt crisis down the road. Back to your point, I do believe the stock market volatility will adversely impact the prices in our hobby. at the same time I believe there will be the mother of all qE that will be unleashed soon, as we never had such a quick shut down on Main Street and Wall Street. |
#5
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#6
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What will all this mean for our Stocks and Bonds?
Brian |
#7
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Hopefully it will mean
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Pride of the Yankees movie project - ongoing Catfish Hunter Regular Season Win Tickets - 25/224 Post Season 0/9 1919 Black Sox - I'm calling it complete...maybe! 1955 Dodger Autographs...41/43 1934 Gas House Gang Autographs...Complete 1969 Cubs Autographs...Black Cat ticket plus 30/50 1960 Pirates autographs...Complete 1961 Yankees autographs...Complete 1971-1975 A's Playoff/WS roster autos...Complete |
#8
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If we are entering a recession, 401k values will fall. Moreover, some people will lose their jobs. Those that do not have jobs will not have disposable income to spend on cards. Those that do not lose their jobs will save for a rainy day in case they lose their jobs. They will choose not to spend their disposable income on cards. The demand will significantly decrease. When this occurs, the prices will fall. Those that have large inventories (supply) have two options. One: they can stop selling and try to ride out the storm. However, who knows how long the recession could last. It could take years for a recession to play out and then years for the prices to return to pre-recession levels. Two: they can sell into the weak demand at lower prices. Basic economic laws disagree with your premise that higher prices will prevail. Good luck. |
#9
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If one thinks this destroys the economy and it takes us years to get back on track then in that scenario it certainly could hurt card values. So much of card values depends on who is buying and who owns the cards. Using only macro trends to predict these micro trends are impossible. I have only been active online since 2010 and there has been no shortage of reasons as to why the card market was going to get hit. It has somehow prevailed and third party graders are backed up as far as the eye can see. I am in finance and I am seeing first hand the damage that is being done to asset prices in real time. Then I flip over to EBAY and look at the nearly 8,000 auctions that PWCC has running right now and I can't see a similar scenario in real time. What got me more interested in cards and diverting a large percentage of my disposable income in late 2009 and in subsequent years was how quickly I watched money evaporate trading options then. I liked the concept that even if I was wrong it wasn't going to zero. There are many of us who have been working on our collections for a long time and quite frankly during environments like this it makes me happy I own it even more. |
#10
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![]() It's an old school way of living that I learned from mentors that came before me and that I respect. If I had their money, I'd burn mine and it worked for them. Of course I have stocks, mutual funds and alike and just dollar cost average for the tax benefits and the fun of it and have done so for many years. I feel that I am diversified and hold many different assets. Some like the cars go down in value but I didn't buy them for that. I like to look at them in the garage and be able to relive 1976 & VROOM around when ever I want. ![]() ![]() Baseball cards are supposed to be fun. The scammers that have ruined it for me including PSA who are going to get "McMillion$$ed" in due time. Then, it will be fun for me again. Good luck and good health to everyone. Last edited by Fuddjcal; 03-16-2020 at 10:36 AM. |
#11
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That doesn't make much sense. At best, you don't sell the cards at the price you want because no one is willing to pay that much. Which means your "prices/values" are imaginary. eBay "museum sellers" have a similar philosophy: "My card is worth $10,000. No one's willing to pay half that much, but it's worth $10,000 because I say so." Market values are identified prices realized, which means buyers and what they are willing to pay most definitely are part of the value equation. Last edited by drcy; 03-16-2020 at 12:53 AM. |
#12
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I get the feeling most of this board doesn't actually watch EBAY completed sales or follow active auctions. Right now there is a Jeter at 140k, a Kobe Bryant insert at 111k, and numerous other cards getting major action. In a different thread someone asked about a Lebron that is from a year ago and I watched the final action and it went for over 11k. The stock market and the card market are so much different in the way they trade. I believe we will hear about some high profile hedge funds that were over leveraged going into this and there could be some actual blow ups. Those that own cards unless they are forced to use those assets for liquidity can simple sit on them. Two months from now or six months from now people will still want to own tangible assets and enjoy collecting. If this hurts the economy for a much longer period of time then yes it will create demand issues. China got back to work in two months and if that is the road map here I just don't see the catastrophic outlook for cards. There are plenty of people like me that own cards that you can't simply get on EBAY and buy. Unless those same people who want the cards exit the market their interest doesn't wane but it grows. Over time that means higher prices. I have lived through a number of corrections in the markets since 1998 when I began investing and trading. This is clearly the strangest one because it came out of no where. Comparing this decline to 2008 and 2009 in my view is not a good comparison. We had a two and half year slow down brewing where there were millions of people not paying their mortgages and upside down on home equity values. The stock market is important but so is the real estate market. I live in a pocket of Orlando and all through this so far homes listed are being snapped up at the same prices. This means at the moment that perceived equity is still in place for folks. In 2008 and 2009 that wasn't the case. The stock market collapsed, unemployment trends had been on the rise for quite awhile and homes values were decimated. I only talk directly to a handful of collectors but none of them are heavy in the stock market and have plenty of resources and cards. I think you will find that there are lots of collectors who have positioned a larger percentage of their net worth in cards and aren't seeing drastic hits to their balance sheets in real time. My largest asset is my 401k and it is in cash. Time will tell how this plays out and I know I will be checking EBAY daily looking for things to buy and hopefully some supply shows up that I want. Last edited by Dpeck100; 03-16-2020 at 05:48 AM. |
#13
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#14
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Death rates of people infected with the disease have been running at between 3.6 and 3.7 percent globally (under 2% in the US). IF there are ultimately a million cases in the US that amounts to 20,000 and 37,000 deaths nationally - incredibly tragic for sure, but not the "sky is falling" scenario many are painting.
If "shutting down the country" for 2-3 weeks would be sufficient time to contain the virus, then our leaders need to stop pulling the band aid off slowly and just hit the pause button - it will ultimately hurt a lot less on a lot of levels then allowing all of the state and local responses that while well intentioned are insufficient at resolving a national problem. That all said - I guess I land somewhere in the middle of what has been stated on the card market. For sure there are simple economics in play - supply and demand. Last time I checked a hard asset is only worth what a willing seller and a willing buyer agree on - not set by the seller or buyer alone. I believe for reasons mentioned above items in our hobby with larger supply will likely be affected negatively by the current environment as there will likely be less buyers and more sellers. I further believe items with limited supply will largely hold their values. My 2 cents. |
#15
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How does your analysis change if we have 100-200 million cases in the U.S.?
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#16
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Who believes a lot of the sales for vintage post war cards in auction since 2014 were fiction ?
I do. |
#17
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How so? What percentage?
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