Will this stock market madness affect cards?

[hcv123]

Death rates of people infected with the disease have been running at between 3.6 and 3.7 percent globally (under 2% in the US). IF there are ultimately a million cases in the US that amounts to 20,000 and 37,000 deaths nationally - incredibly tragic for sure, but not the "sky is falling" scenario many are painting.

If "shutting down the country" for 2-3 weeks would be sufficient time to contain the virus, then our leaders need to stop pulling the band aid off slowly and just hit the pause button - it will ultimately hurt a lot less on a lot of levels then allowing all of the state and local responses that while well intentioned are insufficient at resolving a national problem.

That all said - I guess I land somewhere in the middle of what has been stated on the card market. For sure there are simple economics in play - supply and demand. Last time I checked a hard asset is only worth what a willing seller and a willing buyer agree on - not set by the seller or buyer alone. I believe for reasons mentioned above items in our hobby with larger supply will likely be affected negatively by the current environment as there will likely be less buyers and more sellers. I further believe items with limited supply will largely hold their values.

My 2 cents.

[obcmac]

How does your analysis change if we have 100-200 million cases in the U.S.?

Originally Posted by hcv123

Death rates of people infected with the disease have been running at between 3.6 and 3.7 percent globally (under 2% in the US). IF there are ultimately a million cases in the US that amounts to 20,000 and 37,000 deaths nationally - incredibly tragic for sure, but not the "sky is falling" scenario many are painting.

If "shutting down the country" for 2-3 weeks would be sufficient time to contain the virus, then our leaders need to stop pulling the band aid off slowly and just hit the pause button - it will ultimately hurt a lot less on a lot of levels then allowing all of the state and local responses that while well intentioned are insufficient at resolving a national problem.

That all said - I guess I land somewhere in the middle of what has been stated on the card market. For sure there are simple economics in play - supply and demand. Last time I checked a hard asset is only worth what a willing seller and a willing buyer agree on - not set by the seller or buyer alone. I believe for reasons mentioned above items in our hobby with larger supply will likely be affected negatively by the current environment as there will likely be less buyers and more sellers. I further believe items with limited supply will largely hold their values.

My 2 cents.

[Johnny630]

Who believes a lot of the sales for vintage post war cards in auction since 2014 were fiction ?

I do.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Who believes a lot of the sales for vintage post war cards in auction since 2014 were fiction ? I do.

How so? What percentage?