The Long-Term Future of Vintage Cards

[mferronibc]

Wow incredible insights Sean especially form someone living it first hand! Makes sense Japan would be the place if any to witness this and if little to no market there that’s prob the best test case.

[seanofjapan]

Originally Posted by mferronibc

Wow incredible insights Sean especially form someone living it first hand! Makes sense Japan would be the place if any to witness this and if little to no market there that’s prob the best test case.

Just thinking about it you might also draw comparisons with the stamp and coin collecting worlds. Those are both very international since stamps and coins are produced and collected pretty much everywhere. So the market is bigger. But its a double edged sword too: supply is also bigger since so many countries have made so many of those things. Baseball cards on the other hand are only made in a few countries (The overwhelming majority in the US, but also some in Japan, Canada, Korea, Taiwan, Australia, Mexico and a few other countries where it is popular).

Also, baseball isn't popular in mainland China yet but there is reason to think it might become popular there in the future. Its massively popular in the other countries in the north east Asian region which all have pro leagues and that includes Chinese speaking Taiwan, and the PRC has fielded teams in international competition. SO there might be a latent interest there which hasn't been developed much yet but could be in the future, which might spur interest in baseball cards in the world's second biggest economy, which would obviously be big.

So there might be some potential for a more global market to emerge, but its probably still going to be limited by the lack of interest in baseball everywhere else!

[Exhibitman]

Guys, I think we are overthinking this. A hobby is supposed to be fun. If you can't have fun collecting a certain class of item because you have to worry about profitability, go buy a mutual fund instead.

There are myriad budget ways to collect postwar mainstream cards. Look at 'collector grade' stuff. You may find it more fun to assemble a cheap collection of lesser condition cards than stressing over the long term prospects for return on your 'investment'.

[seanofjapan]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Guys, I think we are overthinking this. A hobby is supposed to be fun. If you can't have fun collecting a certain class of item because you have to worry about profitability, go buy a mutual fund instead.

There are myriad budget ways to collect postwar mainstream cards. Look at 'collector grade' stuff. You may find it more fun to assemble a cheap collection of lesser condition cards than stressing over the long term prospects for return on your 'investment'.

Just to be clear, I don't collect cards as an investment. I'm at the lower end of the economic totem pole and mostly just buy ungraded cards for sets I'm working on for fun.

BUT my day job is one that involves economic analysis, and I have fun applying the principles from that to my hobby and debating it with people. Not because I'm stressing about profitability, I haven't sold a card in over 25 years, but because speculating about the macro future of the hobby is part of the "fun" in it to me.

To each his own I say.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Guys, I think we are overthinking this. A hobby is supposed to be fun. If you can't have fun collecting a certain class of item because you have to worry about profitability, go buy a mutual fund instead.

There are myriad budget ways to collect postwar mainstream cards. Look at 'collector grade' stuff. You may find it more fun to assemble a cheap collection of lesser condition cards than stressing over the long term prospects for return on your 'investment'.

It seems like a lot are much more interested in making money from cards then enjoying/collecting them. Would be cool to take a poll how many on board are full time dealers, part time dealers, eBay sellers, auction houses, flippers or pure collectors. . I’m sure this would never get completely honest responses....hobby/ industry is Full of Big Fishermen Stories /Big Whoopers ...Would get the well I sell what I upgraded from my collection or I sell to buy more stuff for my PC blah blah it is what it is people....calling this a hobby for most people that ship has sailed it’s a industry/money making side thing or full time gig for many.

All are generalized statements with no dislike towards any....it’s all good in my book either way :-) having fun is most important !

[mferronibc]

I don't know guys, I feel like it is so sacrilegious on these boards to discuss the value of cards because you inevitably get blasted for not being in the hobby for the "right" reasons. In my humble opinion, no one can tell anyone else their reasons for collecting ANYTHING are invalid or inappropriate. Yes part of the excitement of collecting cards to me is the possibility of retaining or increasing in value - some of that value is the non-quantifiable owning a piece of history and some of it is feeling like the $100 I may "invest" in a card today won't be worth $0 in 20 years. But the comparisons to mutual funds are a stretch to me. Yes this is fun - but part of that fun for me is the inherent value of the cards (just like it was when I was 10 thinking that a $5 Kevin Maas RC was the most precious thing I owned).

I just have low tolerance when people defend this holier than thou "honor" of collecting cards and tell others "go do xxx instead" if you are looking for an investment. I'm sorry, but that is not your call to make. Part of the fun of collecting for me is speculating about the future of cards - no, not to put my kids through college but wondering if my $500 collection will be worth $1000 or $5 in 20 years. Neither one may make me collect any more or less today but it is definitely a driver of the enjoyment.

[Zach Wheat]

One offshoot to collecting cards in this era is trying to document and find errors, print variations etc.

[Exhibitman]

Matt, I am not trying to be condescending; what I am saying is that if concerns over investment returns make this hobby stressful for someone, that person should either find a way to make it fun again or invest in something more stable than cards. For me, it was going into low grade cards from the postwar era. I am comfortable spending $500 on 100-200 raw cards; I put 'em in an album and enjoy thumbing through them, and I pretty much know that the 'collection' will sell for close to what I paid for it even in bad times: I watched the activity at shows during the recession and the one reliable inventory to have was collector grade, modestly priced stuff. I found that I am not comfortable buying a very expensive single card and then wondering whether I made a prudent purchase, so I rarely do so.

It isn't about being in the hobby for the 'right' reasons (I don't care why someone is a card collector), it is about considering whether the hobby is stressing out the hobbyist because of the money. If that's where a collector is, he should do himself a favor and bail, because this isn't really a stable investment: the cost to exit runs about 13%-20% of the gross sale price, it may take months to even get a large collection to market, and prices are fairly sensitive to general economic conditions, especially for niche collecting.

I'm planning on using my collection as my part time business when (if) I retire. I think it would a fun change of pace. But I have no illusions that my cards will allow me to retire.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by mferronibc

I don't know guys, I feel like it is so sacrilegious on these boards to discuss the value of cards because you inevitably get blasted for not being in the hobby for the "right" reasons.

Quoting someone from over six months ago, but....

I've found that those who blast people that way are the ones who don't have sharp money-making skills (and so they get petty, jealous, and uncomfortable when the business angle is brought up). Or afraid that evil speculators will drive up prices on them.

This industry has naturally become a fairly large one that involves plenty of speculation, and to infer problems with trying to make some bucks is absurd.

When I was buying and selling in high school during the junk wax era, the profit angle was mostly my focus. But now, it's a combination of both that and the collectible/nostalgia aspect, as some others have noted for themselves. Actually, the latter has taken precedence for now.

I actually find that dichotomy to be fascinating, and it's part of what got me interested in it all again

[midwaylandscaping]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

Quoting someone from over six months ago, but....

I've found that those who blast people that way are the ones who don't have sharp money-making skills (and so they get petty, jealous, and uncomfortable when the business angle is brought up). Or afraid that evil speculators will drive up prices on them.

This industry has naturally become a fairly large one that involves plenty of speculation, and to infer problems with trying to make some bucks is absurd.

When I was buying and selling in high school during the junk wax era, the profit angle was mostly my focus. But now, it's a combination of both that and the collectible/nostalgia aspect, as some others have noted for themselves. Actually, the latter has taken precedence for now.

I actually find that dichotomy to be fascinating, and it's part of what got me interested in it all again

Since getting back into cards in 2012 nostalgia has been a main part of my buying/collecting. Mostly on the football side thus far but I'm slowly adding baseball, basketball etc. Should always be a market, how strong who knows. Nothing like finding good looking vintage. For now, this is my oldest on the baseball side, if 67 counts as vintage . Reggie Smith, very, very good oft forgotten player [/IMG]