The Long-Term Future of Vintage Cards

[wdwfan]

I open 1980s-1990s Topps packs from time to time just for fun when I find them at a good price. For instance, I found 3 from 1988 Topps at a store on Friday, so I bought them. Was actually an opened box, but I only bought 3. I always find joy in pulling the HOFers (Gwynn, Rose, although not a HOFer, Jackson, etc.). I hang on to those. I don't think they'll skyrocket in the future, but a HOFer is a HOFer.

Originally Posted by todeen

As for my opinion about 1980-1993 cards, I think you will find that Hall of Famers' cards will increase, but the rest will be left in the dust. It's slowly happening now.

[OlderTheBetter]

Originally Posted by wdwfan

I always find joy in pulling the HOFers (Gwynn, Rose, although not a HOFer, Jackson, etc.). I hang on to those. I don't think they'll skyrocket in the future, but a HOFer is a HOFer.

I do the same. I enjoy opening the late 80s packs just for the fun of that.

Several years ago I went through a heavy case-breaking phase where I bought 1989, 1900 and 1991 Topps sealed cases cheaply from BBCE.

I busted every pack! Took several months but so much fun. I kept all the hall of famers and key rookies. I now have about 50 each of Johnson, Biggio, Smoltz, Thomas, Chipper, etc. I'm not sure where they'll end up -- but there have to be some kids out there that will some day want these hall of famers and rookies.

My oldest grandson is only five so not yet following baseball so it will be a while before we can open wax boxes together but I will do what I can do to keep the tradition alive.

[jchcollins]

Just in general, baseball differs from other sports in the reverence for it's own history, and it's place in American society for marking time and nostalgia. Football may be more popular today in terms of fans and TV ratings, but it never will own the lock on our imaginations from a historical perspective that baseball does. Due in large part to this I think, vintage cards have always had a huge following and just based on what we know right now, it's hard to see that changing dramatically - especially for prewar where the supply in comparison to demand is so low. I would agree that junk era cards and especially commons aren't likely to suddenly rise in value. For the rest, and in the wheelhouse of stuff that I collect from the 1950's and 60's it's difficult to imagine them suddenly losing a lot of value, but I suppose there are unforeseen events, economic or otherwise - which could happen and lead to that.

I hope to be around in a quarter century or more to see how it goes...

[mferronibc]

Great discussion, thanks everyone. Anyone think that continued globalization may someday increase the demand for vintage cards? Although baseball hasn't really shared the same international explosion of popularity as say the NBA and now even the NFL, there has always been a sort of "status symbol" to owning high value vintage cards and wondering if as China for example continues to develop and mature, this sense of owning a piece of American history (or at least a valuable collectible like a piece of art that many US CEOs and top 1%ers chase) could continue to improve the market overall in the future? Not that I have any ambitions of someday owning a 52 Mantle or am close to that socioeconomic level, just that if there's more attention in other countries that Mr X businessman just bought an expensive Mantle card, the desire to own some emulation of that on a smaller scale could boost the market in general in that country/region? It's one thing if millions of Americans make up the market for cards when only a few thousand exist but image the impact if 10x that many globally become interested and have the access to them on Ebay and consignment sites. This may already be happening to some degree or it may be a completely asinine thought.

[seanofjapan]

Originally Posted by mferronibc

Great discussion, thanks everyone. Anyone think that continued globalization may someday increase the demand for vintage cards? Although baseball hasn't really shared the same international explosion of popularity as say the NBA and now even the NFL, there has always been a sort of "status symbol" to owning high value vintage cards and wondering if as China for example continues to develop and mature, this sense of owning a piece of American history (or at least a valuable collectible like a piece of art that many US CEOs and top 1%ers chase) could continue to improve the market overall in the future? Not that I have any ambitions of someday owning a 52 Mantle or am close to that socioeconomic level, just that if there's more attention in other countries that Mr X businessman just bought an expensive Mantle card, the desire to own some emulation of that on a smaller scale could boost the market in general in that country/region? It's one thing if millions of Americans make up the market for cards when only a few thousand exist but image the impact if 10x that many globally become interested and have the access to them on Ebay and consignment sites. This may already be happening to some degree or it may be a completely asinine thought.

I doubt it. Basically the hard limit you have is that baseball is only popular in a few countries other than the US.

I live in Japan and baseball is hugely popular here. Its also got the third biggest economy in the world, so lots of consumers with money. And of course there are a lot of Japanese players in the US so awareness of the US sport is quite high.

But....while there is a market for American cards, even here its not that big, and most of it is focused on current cards (particularly of Japanese MLB players). Vintage, particularly pre-war, American cards are off the radar here except maybe for a handful of collectors.

And if that is in the country that would be probably the most likely to develop a market for American vintage cards, everywhere else (except Canada) its going to be non-existent.

Baseball cards aren't really like the art market, which is global because people in all societies can at some level appreciate art even if it is produced in a different country from their own. Baseball cards though are so tied to interest in the sport that unless baseball itself becomes more popular, interest in baseball cards isn't going to catch on.

A wealthy Chinese businessman will gladly splurge huge sums on a piece of art by a famous American painter because he can claim bragging rights among his peers, who at least will know that art by famous artists is expensive. Perfect vanity purchase, which is what all these things are at the high end. A T206 Wagner though? None of his peers will be impressed with that even if he knows what it is. Forget about it.

I mean, ask yourself if you are interested in investing big money on cards of old cricket players from the UK and you can get an idea of how unappealing these things are in societies where baseball isn't popular.

[mferronibc]

Wow incredible insights Sean especially form someone living it first hand! Makes sense Japan would be the place if any to witness this and if little to no market there that’s prob the best test case.

[seanofjapan]

Originally Posted by mferronibc

Wow incredible insights Sean especially form someone living it first hand! Makes sense Japan would be the place if any to witness this and if little to no market there that’s prob the best test case.

Just thinking about it you might also draw comparisons with the stamp and coin collecting worlds. Those are both very international since stamps and coins are produced and collected pretty much everywhere. So the market is bigger. But its a double edged sword too: supply is also bigger since so many countries have made so many of those things. Baseball cards on the other hand are only made in a few countries (The overwhelming majority in the US, but also some in Japan, Canada, Korea, Taiwan, Australia, Mexico and a few other countries where it is popular).

Also, baseball isn't popular in mainland China yet but there is reason to think it might become popular there in the future. Its massively popular in the other countries in the north east Asian region which all have pro leagues and that includes Chinese speaking Taiwan, and the PRC has fielded teams in international competition. SO there might be a latent interest there which hasn't been developed much yet but could be in the future, which might spur interest in baseball cards in the world's second biggest economy, which would obviously be big.

So there might be some potential for a more global market to emerge, but its probably still going to be limited by the lack of interest in baseball everywhere else!