PWCC Auction Ending Tonight - Interesting Results

[LincolnVT]

I need to agree with Leon on this one. The BSW cards have provenance...if one wants to purchase a high grade card, now more than ever provenance is important. My reason for picking one up while I was able. And yes, I think close to 40k in the next non-PWCC auctions for a PSA 9...I think the average sale for BSF 9s is in the 35k to 38k range based on past PSA 9 sales.

Originally Posted by Leon

Definitely not true.
Actually, except for conspiracy theorists there is no authenticity question on the Black Swamp cards. The rest of the stuff I agree with and have almost always gone for rarity over condition.
I have held off bidding on some cards due to the scandal. I can't imagine collecting high grade stuff after what has been shown. But many, if not most collectors, have stuck their head in the sand or don't care if they have high grade altered cards in their collections. Personally it would bug me.

There could be several factors as to why PWCC isn't getting the prices right now. We all know what they are.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by LincolnVT

I need to agree with Leon on this one. The BSW cards have provenance...if one wants to purchase a high grade card, now more than ever provenance is important. My reason for picking one up while I was able. And yes, I think close to 40k in the next non-PWCC auctions for a PSA 9...I think the average sale for BSF 9s is in the 35k to 38k range based on past PSA 9 sales.

Ethan, with all respect, and I'm not trying to harsh your buzz, but the card went for under 21K because that's what it's worth. Maybe on a good day it's worth 25K? Had your SGC 9.5 been won in a bidding war I'd tend to have more empathy for your argument but you were the only one who bid on it -- for a reason. No one else wanted it at 36K -- for a reason. Unlike you, additionally, I have no personal financial bias for my argument, i.e. I wasn't the sole bidder on the card which makes up the bulk of my collection.

[drcy]

Originally Posted by calvindog

Ethan, with all respect, and I'm not trying to harsh your buzz, but the card went for under 21K because that's what it's worth.

That may be what people here are saying. In this hobby, cards often don't sell, or "sell", for what they are worth.

I haven't trusted, or at least take with a large grain of salt, hobby "final prices realized at auction" for a long, long time. Beyond artificially raised prices due to shilling and valuations based on these artificially high or false prices, we all know that VCP and other 'price realized' lists include "sales" where there was no sale. And, with the current scandal, the hobby is realizing that, even if there was a sale, they can't even be sure what was sold-- though they sometimes find out the next week on BO.

Fake cards, or fake grade cards as in the case of the current scandal, can affect the market values of the cards that are known and proven to be real. Fro Joy Ruths are perhaps the best example. We know which Fro Joy Ruths are genuine, but all the past confusion has been "institutionalized" into the book and market prices. When sellers have to give each every potential bidder a history lesson, two-page essay and links to further reading to explain that "this PSA 9 is considered genuine but those others we don't know about and some are probably false and, to be candid, there are serious and widespread questions in the hobby as to whether PSA can even identify if a card is altered or not," the market value for PSA 9s across the board will be affected.

[Rhotchkiss]

Let’s get back to the generally low prices of the pwcc auction and off the specific e98 Cobb.

Jeff, I just shot you an email on a totally unrelated (fun card stuff) matter.

[calvindog]

David, fake sales prices are usually high ones, not low ones like the E98 last night.

And Ethan, no, I think the PSA 9 that sold last night is authentic. I just think high end E98s are not for everyone with money because of the huge populations in high grades. It's just not that special a card to everyone for that reason. The important thing is you love your card and that's all that should matter, no need to flog it here.

[drcy]

Originally Posted by calvindog

David, fake sales prices are usually high ones, not low ones like the E98 last night.

That's exactly what I said (or implied).

The strikingly low auction price(s) may be because it's a real, honest sale without the common hobby "bells and whistles" (euphemism).

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Let’s get back to the generally low prices of the pwcc auction and off the specific e98 Cobb.

Jeff, I just shot you an email on a totally unrelated (fun card stuff) matter.

Exactly...... the tide is turning over there.... the so called market, developed by them, in the general/grand scheme of things is set up perfectly for a major pull back.......

[RedsFan1941]

expect more black swamp cards to hit the market for the first time in the coming months and years. this isn’t an opinion. it doesn’t question the authenticity of any of the bsf cards. it just means they are many more of them than was disclosed at the time of the find. nothing wrong with that either.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by RedsFan1941

expect more black swamp cards to hit the market for the first time in the coming months and years. this isn’t an opinion. it doesn’t question the authenticity of any of the bsf cards. it just means they are many more of them than was disclosed at the time of the find. nothing wrong with that either.

I have heard the same thing, that the family, or perhaps it was only some family members, held a large portion back. I guess these finds can be a double edged sword. I recall there was a huge find of high number 52 Bowmans at one point that drove prices way down.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by LincolnVT

I need to agree with Leon on this one. The BSW cards have provenance...if one wants to purchase a high grade card, now more than ever provenance is important. My reason for picking one up while I was able. And yes, I think close to 40k in the next non-PWCC auctions for a PSA 9...I think the average sale for BSF 9s is in the 35k to 38k range based on past PSA 9 sales.

Sure, riddle me this. Why were they so miscut, when not a single example had ever surfaced before nor after bearing this trait?

[barrysloate]

I predicted in another thread that this Cobb would sell for quite a bit less than its last auction appearance, so I am not surprised at all. There are simply too many BSF cards, and correct me if I'm wrong, but the appearance is the same ones keep being offered for sale again and again. When was the last time anyone has seen a major auction without multiple BSF cards? There seems to be a never ending supply, and the market is burned out.

Add to that the possibility that the family held back a lot more E98's, and you can see why prices are going down. There is no sense of these being rare. Instead, they are seen by many as The Black Swamp Glut.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Sure, riddle me this. Why were they so miscut, when not a single example had ever surfaced before nor after bearing this trait?

Theory?

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Theory?

Cast offs? No clue but it always seemed strange most these examples are unique in that way

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[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Cast offs? No clue but it always seemed strange most these examples are unique in that way

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A run that was rejected perhaps, and now people are paying 50K for one.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

A run that was rejected perhaps, and now people are paying 50K for one.

Aint that a kick in the rear! I always felt the real nice centered minor HOFers in psa 9 would eventually see a spike in price.

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[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Theory?

I suppose it’s possible that whoever originally owned the black swamp cards had them in uncut sheets and may be hired out someone to cut them and maybe that’s how they got cut that way??

Yet as soon as I typed this I realize that doesn’t make sense how does one account for there being so few Jennings cards?

[ullmandds]

Perhaps a new thread should be started to discuss these cards? Are there known e98 uncut sheets??

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

I suppose it’s possible that whoever originally owned the black swamp cards had them in uncut sheets and may be hired out someone to cut them and maybe that’s how they got cut that way??

Yet as soon as I typed this I realize that doesn’t make sense how does one account for there being so few Jennings cards?

Almost no Mathewsons, right?

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Almost no Mathewsons, right?

I believe so?

[Baseball Rarities]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Almost no Mathewsons, right?

Very few, if any, cards of Jennings, Lajoie, Mathewson, Tinker and Walsh.

[Leon]

This.
Not sure why there were fewer of certain players but there is 0 doubt in my mind, and most other collectors, that the cards are real and authentic....and almost untouched. BTW the family members couldn't have been nicer. I met them at the National (with Heritage) when they were originally found.

The PWCC auction had some lower prices but we'll just have to see how it goes in the future. I imagine a lot of factors play into it and one of them is less bidders.

Originally Posted by ullmandds

I suppose it’s possible that whoever originally owned the black swamp cards had them in uncut sheets and may be hired out someone to cut them and maybe that’s how they got cut that way??

Yet as soon as I typed this I realize that doesn’t make sense how does one account for there being so few Jennings cards?

[Exhibitman]

How are the non-find E98s selling?