Vintage Card Performance During A Recession

[packs]

Why would inflation be a silver lining for low tier cards? During inflation the rate of everything rises proportionally.

[Santo10Fan]

Originally Posted by packs

Why would inflation be a silver lining for low tier cards? During inflation the rate of everything rises proportionally.

I was wondering about that comment also, but it appears Manny was banned this year

[Johnny630]

The best to sell cards is now.....the best time to buy is in a recession.

[MR RAREBACK]

as long as your job is safe I would not worry

[Exhibitman]

Cards were a mixed bag in the last recession. Even the most popular vintage was soft; take a PSA 4 T206 Cobb red bg as an example (prices from PSA):


7/21/2017
$3,099.99
4
132268288467
eBay
discountcdtoolsdvd
Buy It Now
18295420

7/6/2017
$2,700.00
4
263058172309
eBay
biglin847tl8
Buy It Now
31737907

6/29/2017
$3,120.00
4
80027
Heritage Auctions
2017 June 29 Premium Sportscard Catalog Auction - Dallas Ended Jun 29th
Auction
18295420

11/7/2015
$1,912.00
4
10464
Heritage Auctions
2015 November 5 - 7 Sports Collectibles Catalog ... Nov 7, 2015
Auction
19199199

7/23/2015
$2,220.00
4
6
Greg Bussineau Auctions
Summer 2015 Vintage Trading Cards and Memorabilia Auction
Auction
15658217

6/6/2013
$1,367.31
4
372
Goodwin and Co. Auctions
Masterpieces and Uncommon Commons XLIX
Auction
12498648

1/8/2008
$1,819.00
4
93
SCP Auctions
SCP Auctions January 2008 Internet Auction
Auction
90661364

12/16/2007
$2,031.58
4
133
Memory Lane, Inc.
Serious Rarities - December 8th Auction
Auction
04791456

[oldjudge]

People lose jobs in a recession. Bonus money for those receiving this type of compensation tends to be less. I see no argument where collectibles would gain in value during a recession. How much value is destroyed is anyone’s guess. It is most probably a function of the length and severity of the recession.

[Mark]

Good points, and thanks for some stats, Adam. I knew a guy who thought that sports memorabilia is a good investment during recessions, but I don't think that is the general view. It might be time to sell some cards and raise some cash so that I can buy on the dip when the recession hits in a year or two.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by MR RAREBACK

as long as your job is safe I would not worry

AND the only way that is if you work for yourself. There is no such thing as job security, maybe you didn't get the memo.

[tschock]

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

AND the only way that is if you work for yourself. There is no such thing as job security, maybe you didn't get the memo.

Not true either. You may be your own boss, but you don't work for yourself. Who pays you?

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by tschock

Not true either. You may be your own boss, but you don't work for yourself. Who pays you?

Your customers (clients)

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by tschock

Not true either. You may be your own boss, but you don't work for yourself. Who pays you?

The companies that are affected pay me.... I still get paid, just not as much which is evident from the last recession At least, I'm not out of a job.

Personal Care Products aren't goin anywhere...ask your wife or your mother

[seanofjapan]

Originally Posted by packs

Why would inflation be a silver lining for low tier cards? During inflation the rate of everything rises proportionally.

Not sure if this is what was meant, but I assume he meant that if the rate of everything rises proportionally, including cards, then they are a safe asset compared to cash, which will lose its value over time.

Of course there are way too many assumptions built into that line of reasoning for it to hold up in actual practice, but I think that must have been what he was getting at.

About the bigger question of what happens to cards in a recession, there is this article here about the art market, which is an obvious parallel:

https://medium.com/@masterworksio/wh...s-2cc9c20451b8

[bobbyw8469]

There are absolutely ZERO signs for a recession. That seems to be the new buzz word by the liberal media to make SOMETHING...ANYTHING stick against this president that they loathe. The economy is buzzing along.

[obcbobd]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

There are absolutely ZERO signs for a recession. That seems to be the new buzz word by the liberal media to make SOMETHING...ANYTHING stick against this president that they loathe. The economy is buzzing along.

Not an economist so can't comment on your ZERO signs of a recession proclamation, but I don't think there is any need for the media (liberal or otherwise) to make things up to disparage the president. He does that quite well for them with his twitter feed :-)

[Econteachert205]

Right now the bond market and stock market are in disagreement over the possibility of a recession with the bond market saying it is likely.

Inflation most greatly impacts the things you need. The assets best suited to fight it are the most desired. In the world of cards that would be your blue chip items.

The previous statements about paring down to your core collection to raise cash for the future is a good strategy right now in my opinion. Having said that I would not sell anything that I would truly miss.

[bbcard1]

Originally Posted by Econteachert205

Right now the bond market and stock market are in disagreement over the possibility of a recession with the bond market saying it is likely.

The inverted yield curve...I get it but compare to Germany which is paying NEGATIVE interest on bonds.

I know there are some cards that I own that I could sell quite easily. Sadly, they are the ones I most want to hang on to.

[glynparson]

Originally Posted by obcbobd

Not an economist so can't comment on your ZERO signs of a recession proclamation, but I don't think there is any need for the media (liberal or otherwise) to make things up to disparage the president. He does that quite well for them with his twitter feed :-)

Exactly. But even the Jack ass is looking into more tax cuts because of the signs of a recession. so it looks like one of those typical talk out of both sides of your mouth moves from this POTUS. Take both sides of a position so you always claim to be right.

[tschock]

Originally Posted by glynparson

Take both sides of a position so you always claim to be right.

And the other side can claim he's always wrong. That's the beauty. Works both ways.

[bobbyw8469]

I'd be willing to bet we WON'T see a recession. However, should a Dem win in 2020, all bets are off.

[mq711]

Originally Posted by glynparson

Exactly. But even the Jack ass is looking into more tax cuts because of the signs of a recession. so it looks like one of those typical talk out of both sides of your mouth moves from this POTUS. Take both sides of a position so you always claim to be right.

Not a political forum for your rude reference to the president, no matter what your personal feelings towards him are.

Leon, request at least a warning/reminder please.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

There are absolutely ZERO signs for a recession. That seems to be the new buzz word by the liberal media to make SOMETHING...ANYTHING stick against this president that they loathe. The economy is buzzing along.

No politics on Net54 please. There is too much of this garbage lately- keep politics off this board.

[packs]

Not really sure how anyone can deny the reality of what's coming for the economy. The economy is not a political entity and neither party needs to believe in it for it to be true. Economists are the ones predicting it, not political pundits.

[Johnny630]

2021 yes possible 2020 No

[TUM301]

Originally Posted by packs

Not really sure how anyone can deny the reality of what's coming for the economy. The economy is not a political entity and neither party needs to believe in it for it to be true. Economists are the ones predicting it, not political pundits.

Nothing will be more political, and important, to both parties during the upcoming election cycle, than the economy.

[bobbyw8469]

I will say this. Certain "economist" would love nothing more than the see a recession under the current administrations watch. They are literally salivating at the mouth. Since the Russian narrative fell apart and what not. That is why I take everything the "economist" are saying with a grain of salt. I know MY situation is the best it has been in a long time. All except for my crappy insurance. And that was the previous administrations fault. Not the current one.

[packs]

The economy exists as it is regardless. Nothing about the likely recession is steeped in politics. Politicians might want to use the economy to support their rhetoric, but a recession happens whether your political party believes in it or not.

[trdcrdkid]

Originally Posted by packs

Not really sure how anyone can deny the reality of what's coming for the economy. The economy is not a political entity and neither party needs to believe in it for it to be true. Economists are the ones predicting it, not political pundits.

Economists are notoriously poor at predicting recessions, basically no better than the ordinary man on the street. There will certainly be another recession in the U.S. at some point, but neither you nor I know when it will be, or how bad it will be.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by trdcrdkid

Economists are notoriously poor at predicting recessions, basically no better than the ordinary man on the street. There will certainly be another recession in the U.S. at some point, but neither you nor I know when it will be, or how bad it will be.

Nearly every day since after the bottom in 2009 I have seen some article online by one economist or another predicting imminent and catastrophic collapse of the markets and the economy. Indeed, many of them claimed it had already begun. They always identify the same reasons and present the same doomsday graphs showing supposedly infallible indicators.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

No politics on Net54 please. There is too much of this garbage lately- keep politics off this board.

+1 Those who want to believe this kind of shit, please keep it to yourself and your loony friends. This is a collecting board in case you didn't notice. As for a recession, when it comes it will affect everything depending on how severe it gets. And if you think the business cycle has been repealed, see the previous sentence.

[barrysloate]

The only reason people are discussing a recession is that there are certain signs that have presaged past recessions that are beginning to show up now. This doesn't mean that there will definitely be one, and it doesn't tell us when it will occur. It merely means there are worrying signs out there so it is in everyone's best interest to pay attention.

As far as the future of the hobby, we can only guess. I think there will always be money available for the very rare and the highest graded cards. Where the hobby might have problems is that there will likely be fewer collectors piecing together 1958 Topps sets in VG-EX condition. That area of the hobby is likely to shrink over time.

Things are changing and I think baseball cards will head in the same direction as coins and stamps- collectors are getting older and for every young collector who comes in, two or three older ones will either drop out or die. That could be troublesome for the future of the hobby. But this is only a prediction, not a guarantee of what will happen.

[JackW]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

The only reason people are discussing a recession is that there are certain signs that have presaged past recessions that are beginning to show up now.

I don't think "certain signs" are the *only" reason discussions of a recession are picking up.