Vintage Card Performance During A Recession

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

There are absolutely ZERO signs for a recession. That seems to be the new buzz word by the liberal media to make SOMETHING...ANYTHING stick against this president that they loathe. The economy is buzzing along.

No politics on Net54 please. There is too much of this garbage lately- keep politics off this board.

[packs]

Not really sure how anyone can deny the reality of what's coming for the economy. The economy is not a political entity and neither party needs to believe in it for it to be true. Economists are the ones predicting it, not political pundits.

[Johnny630]

2021 yes possible 2020 No

[TUM301]

Originally Posted by packs

Not really sure how anyone can deny the reality of what's coming for the economy. The economy is not a political entity and neither party needs to believe in it for it to be true. Economists are the ones predicting it, not political pundits.

Nothing will be more political, and important, to both parties during the upcoming election cycle, than the economy.

[bobbyw8469]

I will say this. Certain "economist" would love nothing more than the see a recession under the current administrations watch. They are literally salivating at the mouth. Since the Russian narrative fell apart and what not. That is why I take everything the "economist" are saying with a grain of salt. I know MY situation is the best it has been in a long time. All except for my crappy insurance. And that was the previous administrations fault. Not the current one.

[trdcrdkid]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

i will say this. Certain "economist" would love nothing more than the see a recession under the current administrations watch. They are literally salivating at the mouth. Since the russian narrative fell apart and what not. That is why i take everything the "economist" are saying with a grain of salt. I know my situation is the best it has been in a long time. All except for my crappy insurance. And that was the previous administrations fault. Not the current one.

no politics please. Thank you.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by trdcrdkid

no politics please. Thank you.

Thanks David.....Infractions and suspensions are going to start being handed out. There is way too much political talk on the board the last few days.

As far as cards in a recession, almost nothing is recession proof.

[Touch'EmAll]

My tinker money is/has been going to stocks last chunk of years. Very few card acquisitions. Stocks have done well past few years. When the economy tide turns, will likely get out of stocks and will buy more nice cards if they decline.

[Exhibitman]

You know, economists have predicted six of the last three recessions. The best indicators are businesses that get cut first when things slow up: construction, public relations, executive recruitment. My wife works in recruiting and her company has seen a marked slowdown in business. But my construction and public relations clients haven’t been hit yet. When I get a spike in collections cases from them it is time to batten down the hatches. Last time around my entire construction and real estate practice went from deals to collections virtually overnight...a year before the sh** hit the fan. Right after the 2007 NSCC. The cycle before that it was an onslaught of collections work against dot com companies and developers that collapsed and stopped paying vendors. The first cycle I experienced was right out of law school. It took the legs out of the construction industry to such an extent that the firm I was with (a construction practice) laid off 75% of its associates.

My research on boxing cards showed a lag between recession and effect of about one year. Prices were good in the months after the debacle but dropped after that. Bottomed out around October 2010.

[packs]

The economy exists as it is regardless. Nothing about the likely recession is steeped in politics. Politicians might want to use the economy to support their rhetoric, but a recession happens whether your political party believes in it or not.

[oldjudge]

Unfortunately, I don't believe what you are saying is true. If politicians say something often enough, true or not, the general public may start to believe it. If the message is there is economic trouble ahead people may alter their consumption patterns which can lead to a slowing economy. Do I expect a recession in 2020-no. Can two successive quarters of negative GDP growth happen (classic definition of a recession), especially with the current trade war, absolutely.

[tulsaboy]

To get this thread back on track a little, I would be interested in opinions on what areas of the hobby might be softest in the next decade or so, recession or not. For instance, do you think that pre-war will take a hit as even boomers age into retirement homes and start to pass away in greater numbers? Do you think that post-war vintage will suffer for the same reason? Do you think unopened is a bubble waiting to burst, but is getting an unreasonable boost right now as the children of the 80's start having more and more discretionary income? Do you think that all of the shiny new stuff will be like 1988 Donruss- way overproduced and ready to plunge? And if a recession hits, are there areas you think are softer than others due to people possibly selling off as much as they can to raise cash?
kevin

[packs]

I have always thought that sometime in the next 10 to 20 years, when most boomers will be in their 70s and 80s you'll see mass sell offs of lifetime collections, which will mean diluting the market and disrupting supply vs demand pricing. If that does actually happen I don't see any way around a significant price drop on cards that are easily found in many collections: T206 Cobbs, Mattys, Johnsons, Youngs, Goudey Ruths, Gehrigs, etc.

The best case scenario for anyone is to try to time that period and sell high. Then buy back in when it hits and end up with better cards for less.

[NYYFan63]

During a recession, some will have less disposable income to spend on a hobby item. The lower the demand for a product will result in a lower price for that product.

[trdcrdkid]

Originally Posted by packs

Not really sure how anyone can deny the reality of what's coming for the economy. The economy is not a political entity and neither party needs to believe in it for it to be true. Economists are the ones predicting it, not political pundits.

Economists are notoriously poor at predicting recessions, basically no better than the ordinary man on the street. There will certainly be another recession in the U.S. at some point, but neither you nor I know when it will be, or how bad it will be.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by trdcrdkid

Economists are notoriously poor at predicting recessions, basically no better than the ordinary man on the street. There will certainly be another recession in the U.S. at some point, but neither you nor I know when it will be, or how bad it will be.

Nearly every day since after the bottom in 2009 I have seen some article online by one economist or another predicting imminent and catastrophic collapse of the markets and the economy. Indeed, many of them claimed it had already begun. They always identify the same reasons and present the same doomsday graphs showing supposedly infallible indicators.

[Leon]

+1
I see the same articles with all of the indicators yet no one can ever tell what the market is going to do. I am sure more than a few great investors have said as much. (The only thing for sure is nothing is for sure). That all said, it is more fun to collect cards than stocks....at least to me. A balance is always best.

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Nearly every day since after the bottom in 2009 I have seen some article online by one economist or another predicting imminent and catastrophic collapse of the markets and the economy. Indeed, many of them claimed it had already begun. They always identify the same reasons and present the same doomsday graphs showing supposedly infallible indicators.

[Santo10Fan]

Originally Posted by Leon

...That all said, it is more fun to collect cards than stocks....at least to me. A balance is always best.

I agree, I caught a little of the antiquing bug from my mother and hers. Is that one of the genes we can edit now? Can they keep the gene active and add the balancing part? I'm in!

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

No politics on Net54 please. There is too much of this garbage lately- keep politics off this board.

+1 Those who want to believe this kind of shit, please keep it to yourself and your loony friends. This is a collecting board in case you didn't notice. As for a recession, when it comes it will affect everything depending on how severe it gets. And if you think the business cycle has been repealed, see the previous sentence.

[barrysloate]

The only reason people are discussing a recession is that there are certain signs that have presaged past recessions that are beginning to show up now. This doesn't mean that there will definitely be one, and it doesn't tell us when it will occur. It merely means there are worrying signs out there so it is in everyone's best interest to pay attention.

As far as the future of the hobby, we can only guess. I think there will always be money available for the very rare and the highest graded cards. Where the hobby might have problems is that there will likely be fewer collectors piecing together 1958 Topps sets in VG-EX condition. That area of the hobby is likely to shrink over time.

Things are changing and I think baseball cards will head in the same direction as coins and stamps- collectors are getting older and for every young collector who comes in, two or three older ones will either drop out or die. That could be troublesome for the future of the hobby. But this is only a prediction, not a guarantee of what will happen.

[JackW]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

The only reason people are discussing a recession is that there are certain signs that have presaged past recessions that are beginning to show up now.

I don't think "certain signs" are the *only" reason discussions of a recession are picking up.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by JackW

I don't think "certain signs" are the *only" reason discussions of a recession are picking up.

There are different opinions, of course, but that is my take. Am I right or wrong? I haven't a clue.

[Econteachert205]

Yield curve inversion (2yr/10yr) is the indicator that is driving much of the speculation.

[Throttlesteer]

Originally Posted by JackW

I don't think "certain signs" are the *only" reason discussions of a recession are picking up.

I'm picking up what you're putting down. Some seem more than excited about it too.

[trdcrdkid]

Originally Posted by JackW

I don't think "certain signs" are the *only" reason discussions of a recession are picking up.

I honestly don’t know what you’re trying to say here.

[KCRfan1]

People who look for recession indicators typically look at the following: GDP ( gross domestic product number ) , actual or real income , employment numbers , retail sales , and industrial production.

None of these areas are really lagging.

However, nobody has a crystal ball.

Recessions come and go, bull markets come and go. Neither lasts forever.

In terms of collectables, buy what you like and what you love, AND WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE IF IT GOES TO ZERO VALUE.

[egri]

Regardless of when the next recession hits (and I’ve been hearing for 4-5 years that it’s just around the corner) I would not look to cards as a safe haven. It’ll be a good time to be buying, not selling.