Pre-War Correction underway?

[sb1]

Just like the equities market, there is no way to know when or where the bottom is, until well after it's been established …..and it's too late to do anything at that point. So, again like that scenario, if you were buying to hold, just keep holding and wait for price stabilization and reappreciation, which might take some time. If you were buying and selling for the short term, it will be tough to get back to a point of recouping costs and most will have to sell at a loss to buy in it at new lows.

Unfortunately some items never come back. Take a look at where most E-card prices are today versus 10 years ago, only a few top tier HOFers are in the plus column.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by sb1

Just like the equities market, there is no way to know when or where the bottom is, until well after it's been established …..and it's too late to do anything at that point. So, again like that scenario, if you were buying to hold, just keep holding and wait for price stabilization and reappreciation, which might take some time. If you were buying and selling for the short term, it will be tough to get back to a point of recouping costs and most will have to sell at a loss to buy in it at new lows.

Unfortunately some items never come back. Take a look at where most E-card prices are today versus 10 years ago, only a few top tier HOFers are in the plus column.

I agree with this statement completely. I am a collector, or at least I am very long on cards. I am buying with an eye toward leaving them to my kids or selling in 20+ years (of course best laid plans....). In that case, like with real estate (and I assume stocks), the ups and downs over the relative shorter period are irrelevant - buy what you think will increase in value over the long-term and don't worry about the short term. That's what I try to do.

That said, as a buyer, I am trying to figure out whether there may be "bargains" in the next few months-years, in which case I may go a bit stronger on cardboard than I otherwise might have. I am approaching this as a buyer conundrum, not a seller.

Also, while some items don't come back (see E Cards, but I have some hope there)- some items just NEVER come up for sale, like this Wolverine Cobb. So I am a buyer on items like this when they can be had, regardless of where the economy or card market stands.

[pokerplyr80]

It doesn't take much to move the needle one way or the other with how often many prewar cards come to market. A few guys jumping out or sitting a few auctions out and it can look like the market is crashing. A few guys with deep pockets decide they all want similar cards and prices can jump so fast it looks like market manipulation.

There are a couple prewar cards I'd like to add to the collection. If a drop in prices let's me get in a little cheaper I won't be complaining.

[griffon512]

the matty dark cap psa 6 in ebay currently looks like a 4 at best with the corner wear. not sure what's going on there -- may not be legit. the one with the same grade that sold for $3,100 is off center and has the paper loss you mentioned. the cy young sgc 6 portrait had very poor registration, to the point where part of his face looks removed. it is also miscut. i would have guessed it wouldn't have gone for less than $5k, so $5,800 seems like a good price. i haven't looked at the others you cited, but if i'm surprised by anything it's the resilience of the market overall to this point, ignoring outliers. i think the card market is much more likely to correct from a sustained stock market correction versus any other scenario. the suspension of disbelief is strong.

[barrysloate]

Ryan- be patient and buy good quality cards when the opportunity arises. Don't feel you have to overpay to get nice cards. Things you think will never come around again will in fact come around again, and may be cheaper the second time. You've already put together a beautiful collection so keep adding to it. Being in for the long term is a great way to go.

There may be a short term blip due to this grading fiasco, but long term the hobby will right itself and you should do just fine.

[oldjudge]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Ryan- be patient and buy good quality cards when the opportunity arises. Don't feel you have to overpay to get nice cards. Things you think will never come around again will in fact come around again, and may be cheaper the second time. You've already put together a beautiful collection so keep adding to it. Being in for the long term is a great way to go.

There may be a short term blip due to this grading fiasco, but long term the hobby will right itself and you should do just fine.

Barry--Your advice works to a point. On truly rare cards you buy them when you see them. Pass now and you may never get an opportunity again. I can think of several good examples in 19th century cards and I know you can too.

[HobokenJon]

We'll know soon enough if there's a near-term correction for T206 rare backs, when we see how the current Heritage auction turns out.

It looks like David Hall is selling. I haven't seen any discussion about this on the board yet. Was there a thread that I missed? (I don't post here often, and it's possible I missed it.)

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Barry--Your advice works to a point. On truly rare cards you buy them when you see them. Pass now and you may never get an opportunity again. I can think of several good examples in 19th century cards and I know you can too.

Sorry for the late post Jay, just saw this now.

Yes, there are 19th century cards that are unique, or nearly so, so if you can afford them you take advantage of the opportunity when it's there.

But we have a whole class of investors entering the hobby and do you think they are adding Four Base Hits hall-of-famers to their portfolios? It's more like green Cobbs, 52 Mantle's, 49 Leaf Robbys, etc.

So I repeat what I said. Be patient!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by griffon512

the matty dark cap psa 6 in ebay currently looks like a 4 at best with the corner wear. not sure what's going on there -- may not be legit. the one with the same grade that sold for $3,100 is off center and has the paper loss you mentioned. the cy young sgc 6 portrait had very poor registration, to the point where part of his face looks removed. it is also miscut. i would have guessed it wouldn't have gone for less than $5k, so $5,800 seems like a good price. i haven't looked at the others you cited, but if i'm surprised by anything it's the resilience of the market overall to this point, ignoring outliers. i think the card market is much more likely to correct from a sustained stock market correction versus any other scenario. the suspension of disbelief is strong.

Yup. You can't just analyze flips and prices to do a meaningful comparison sometimes. Particularly with just one or two examples of a card. To call a trend I think you would need much more data over a sustained period. Just my opinion.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

some items just NEVER come up for sale, like this Wolverine Cobb. So I am a buyer on items like this when they can be had, regardless of where the economy or card market stands.

And that is the beauty of collecting truly rare things. Other than when everything goes down the tubes (2008 for example), rarity is never having to be sorry.

[BeanTown]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I agree with this statement completely. I am a collector, or at least I am very long on cards. I am buying with an eye toward leaving them to my kids or selling in 20+ years (of course best laid plans....). In that case, like with real estate (and I assume stocks), the ups and downs over the relative shorter period are irrelevant - buy what you think will increase in value over the long-term and don't worry about the short term. That's what I try to do.

That said, as a buyer, I am trying to figure out whether there may be "bargains" in the next few months-years, in which case I may go a bit stronger on cardboard than I otherwise might have. I am approaching this as a buyer conundrum, not a seller.

Also, while some items don't come back (see E Cards, but I have some hope there)- some items just NEVER come up for sale, like this Wolverine Cobb. So I am a buyer on items like this when they can be had, regardless of where the economy or card market stands.

I think you are approaching it with the right idea. Buying HOFers on low pop issues gives you a very high ceiling for growth. Investing in rare cards at next year prices pays off many times. Not too mention, if its a public sale, it sets the bar higher for the next sale. Great Cobb postcard BTW which is extremly under valued. I would gladly over pay for that one.

Terry Knouse "TIK" coined this phrase with me, as he would say this everytime I tried negoiating with him "Last I checked, they weren't making anymore of these" then we wouod shake hands and my purchase became my new favorite card.