Pre-War Correction underway?

[barrysloate]

I'm sure some buyers are a little jittery right now, so we'll see whether things calm down or whether we are in a market correction. I really don't know.

[Rhotchkiss]

Btw- I could site dozens of other recent examples- I just have better things to do- And I do acknowledge its only been a few weeks, so I’m that regard the temporal period is no doubt short/small. However, I do think there has been an immediate reaction- the real question is whether it’s a anomaly or it becomes a trend.

While the net54 society is small, I do believe it represents a relatively larger pool of prewar baseball collectors than in other areas/genres, and thus the opinions, polls and feelings expressed on this site, if they play out in real life, could have a material impact on prewar. And based on examples from the past few weeks, I do believe that is happening.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Btw- I could site dozens of other recent examples- I just have better things to do- And I do acknowledge its only been a few weeks, so I’m that regard the temporal period is no doubt short/small. However, I do think there has been an immediate reaction- the real question is whether it’s a anomaly or it becomes a trend.

While the net54 society is small, I do believe it represents a relatively larger pool of prewar baseball collectors than in other areas/genres, and thus the opinions, polls and feelings expressed on this site, if they play out in real life, could have a material impact on prewar. And based on examples from the past few weeks, I do believe that is happening.

It's almost like all the people who said they wouldn't bid in PWCC auctions anymore aren't bidding in PWCC auctions anymore.

[Stampsfan]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

It's almost like all the people who said they wouldn't bid in PWCC auctions anymore aren't bidding in PWCC auctions anymore.

I'm not. Friggin done.

There are some cards from the '60's in their latest auction that I would have normally been interested in, and they are so short in the PSA holders it is a joke.

[Rhotchkiss]

Thanks for the feedback guys.

James, I agree some of the examples I site are lesser quality (especially the matty dark cap that does look like it should be in a 4 flip), but the prices are lower than what I would expect nonetheless, especially given the looks of some of the other comps I am comparing them to. To use an absolute example, the same e106 Wagner batting PSA has sold 5 times since 2015, and in it sold for less (by over $1300) in this last pwcc auction than any of the previous 4 sales going back to 2015; I know that one of the mile high sales did not actually occur/high bidder did not pay for the card, but still...

[scooter729]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Thanks for the feedback guys.

James, I agree some of the examples I site are lesser quality (especially the matty dark cap that does look like it should be in a 4 flip), but the prices are lower than what I would expect nonetheless, especially given the looks of some of the other comps I am comparing them to. To use an absolute example, the same e106 Wagner batting PSA has sold 5 times since 2015, and in it sold for less (by over $1300) in this last pwcc auction than any of the previous 4 sales going back to 2015; I know that one of the mile high sales did not actually occur/high bidder did not pay for the card, but still...

I was watching that E106 Wagner as it approached its closing time at $8k. Heck, I think I have bid more on it myself in the past. But as I considered bidding, I just felt it wasn’t the right time or the right seller. I may regret it later, but I just watched it end at a lower price than I would have done just a couple of months ago.

[Goudey77]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Btw- I could site dozens of other recent examples- I just have better things to do- And I do acknowledge its only been a few weeks, so I’m that regard the temporal period is no doubt short/small. However, I do think there has been an immediate reaction- the real question is whether it’s a anomaly or it becomes a trend.

While the net54 society is small, I do believe it represents a relatively larger pool of prewar baseball collectors than in other areas/genres, and thus the opinions, polls and feelings expressed on this site, if they play out in real life, could have a material impact on prewar. And based on examples from the past few weeks, I do believe that is happening.

I think it was already destined to happen. We were on the peak. The scandals may have just triggered it. I think that upward trend was unsustainable. There are only a limited amount of buyers with so much cash.

Also need to factor in resale. If you depend on flipping cards to buy more cards then even a temporary dip in prices could halt that activity.
Even if prices remained stable its a loss on the sales end. At that point where's the new money to support the higher prices?

[sb1]

Just like the equities market, there is no way to know when or where the bottom is, until well after it's been established …..and it's too late to do anything at that point. So, again like that scenario, if you were buying to hold, just keep holding and wait for price stabilization and reappreciation, which might take some time. If you were buying and selling for the short term, it will be tough to get back to a point of recouping costs and most will have to sell at a loss to buy in it at new lows.

Unfortunately some items never come back. Take a look at where most E-card prices are today versus 10 years ago, only a few top tier HOFers are in the plus column.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by sb1

Just like the equities market, there is no way to know when or where the bottom is, until well after it's been established …..and it's too late to do anything at that point. So, again like that scenario, if you were buying to hold, just keep holding and wait for price stabilization and reappreciation, which might take some time. If you were buying and selling for the short term, it will be tough to get back to a point of recouping costs and most will have to sell at a loss to buy in it at new lows.

Unfortunately some items never come back. Take a look at where most E-card prices are today versus 10 years ago, only a few top tier HOFers are in the plus column.

I agree with this statement completely. I am a collector, or at least I am very long on cards. I am buying with an eye toward leaving them to my kids or selling in 20+ years (of course best laid plans....). In that case, like with real estate (and I assume stocks), the ups and downs over the relative shorter period are irrelevant - buy what you think will increase in value over the long-term and don't worry about the short term. That's what I try to do.

That said, as a buyer, I am trying to figure out whether there may be "bargains" in the next few months-years, in which case I may go a bit stronger on cardboard than I otherwise might have. I am approaching this as a buyer conundrum, not a seller.

Also, while some items don't come back (see E Cards, but I have some hope there)- some items just NEVER come up for sale, like this Wolverine Cobb. So I am a buyer on items like this when they can be had, regardless of where the economy or card market stands.

[pokerplyr80]

It doesn't take much to move the needle one way or the other with how often many prewar cards come to market. A few guys jumping out or sitting a few auctions out and it can look like the market is crashing. A few guys with deep pockets decide they all want similar cards and prices can jump so fast it looks like market manipulation.

There are a couple prewar cards I'd like to add to the collection. If a drop in prices let's me get in a little cheaper I won't be complaining.

[griffon512]

the matty dark cap psa 6 in ebay currently looks like a 4 at best with the corner wear. not sure what's going on there -- may not be legit. the one with the same grade that sold for $3,100 is off center and has the paper loss you mentioned. the cy young sgc 6 portrait had very poor registration, to the point where part of his face looks removed. it is also miscut. i would have guessed it wouldn't have gone for less than $5k, so $5,800 seems like a good price. i haven't looked at the others you cited, but if i'm surprised by anything it's the resilience of the market overall to this point, ignoring outliers. i think the card market is much more likely to correct from a sustained stock market correction versus any other scenario. the suspension of disbelief is strong.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

some items just NEVER come up for sale, like this Wolverine Cobb. So I am a buyer on items like this when they can be had, regardless of where the economy or card market stands.

And that is the beauty of collecting truly rare things. Other than when everything goes down the tubes (2008 for example), rarity is never having to be sorry.

[BeanTown]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I agree with this statement completely. I am a collector, or at least I am very long on cards. I am buying with an eye toward leaving them to my kids or selling in 20+ years (of course best laid plans....). In that case, like with real estate (and I assume stocks), the ups and downs over the relative shorter period are irrelevant - buy what you think will increase in value over the long-term and don't worry about the short term. That's what I try to do.

That said, as a buyer, I am trying to figure out whether there may be "bargains" in the next few months-years, in which case I may go a bit stronger on cardboard than I otherwise might have. I am approaching this as a buyer conundrum, not a seller.

Also, while some items don't come back (see E Cards, but I have some hope there)- some items just NEVER come up for sale, like this Wolverine Cobb. So I am a buyer on items like this when they can be had, regardless of where the economy or card market stands.

I think you are approaching it with the right idea. Buying HOFers on low pop issues gives you a very high ceiling for growth. Investing in rare cards at next year prices pays off many times. Not too mention, if its a public sale, it sets the bar higher for the next sale. Great Cobb postcard BTW which is extremly under valued. I would gladly over pay for that one.

Terry Knouse "TIK" coined this phrase with me, as he would say this everytime I tried negoiating with him "Last I checked, they weren't making anymore of these" then we wouod shake hands and my purchase became my new favorite card.

[MVSNYC]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I'm sure some buyers are a little jittery right now, so we'll see whether things calm down or whether we are in a market correction. I really don't know.

I think Barry is right, simply put, people have pumped the brakes somewhat with aggressive bidding (due to being a little "jittery"). Time will tell if a correction will(is) happen(ing). I do think, however, as mentioned above, true rarity will always hold it's value and command strong prices.

[Throttlesteer]

I honestly hope it is a slight correction, as several cards I've had my eye on have been a bit more than what I'm willing to spend. But, I also believe the jitters are contributing to the lower realized prices; Especially the PSA graded stuff.

There's a bit of irony, considering 6 months ago everyone was throwing their money at dead-centered, lighthouse PSA-graded cards. Now it appears the safest bet might be older flip, off-centered, low grade cards.