Pre-War Correction underway?

[Exhibitman]

Too small a sample to tell whether those were aberrant sales (perhaps due to vacation or similar distractions). Ask again in 6 mos. after hundreds of cards have moved.

[ullmandds]

While I agree with Adam that the sample size is way too small at this point to know if a correction is underway...it would not surprise me in the least if this is the beginning of one. A lot of the younger collectors/investors were paying crazy money for pretty common t206's lately...with the mindset that valuations will just keep going up...and I think some maybe spooked and are selling/leaving the hobby.

[barrysloate]

Ryan- the sales you cited occurred simultaneous with the revelations of the past several weeks. It would be more interesting to see if in a month or two everything returns to normal. This does need to be tracked over a longer period of time.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Way too little, way too early to tell.

[barrysloate]

I'm sure some buyers are a little jittery right now, so we'll see whether things calm down or whether we are in a market correction. I really don't know.

[Rhotchkiss]

Btw- I could site dozens of other recent examples- I just have better things to do- And I do acknowledge its only been a few weeks, so I’m that regard the temporal period is no doubt short/small. However, I do think there has been an immediate reaction- the real question is whether it’s a anomaly or it becomes a trend.

While the net54 society is small, I do believe it represents a relatively larger pool of prewar baseball collectors than in other areas/genres, and thus the opinions, polls and feelings expressed on this site, if they play out in real life, could have a material impact on prewar. And based on examples from the past few weeks, I do believe that is happening.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Btw- I could site dozens of other recent examples- I just have better things to do- And I do acknowledge its only been a few weeks, so I’m that regard the temporal period is no doubt short/small. However, I do think there has been an immediate reaction- the real question is whether it’s a anomaly or it becomes a trend.

While the net54 society is small, I do believe it represents a relatively larger pool of prewar baseball collectors than in other areas/genres, and thus the opinions, polls and feelings expressed on this site, if they play out in real life, could have a material impact on prewar. And based on examples from the past few weeks, I do believe that is happening.

It's almost like all the people who said they wouldn't bid in PWCC auctions anymore aren't bidding in PWCC auctions anymore.

[Stampsfan]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

It's almost like all the people who said they wouldn't bid in PWCC auctions anymore aren't bidding in PWCC auctions anymore.

I'm not. Friggin done.

There are some cards from the '60's in their latest auction that I would have normally been interested in, and they are so short in the PSA holders it is a joke.

[Goudey77]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Btw- I could site dozens of other recent examples- I just have better things to do- And I do acknowledge its only been a few weeks, so I’m that regard the temporal period is no doubt short/small. However, I do think there has been an immediate reaction- the real question is whether it’s a anomaly or it becomes a trend.

While the net54 society is small, I do believe it represents a relatively larger pool of prewar baseball collectors than in other areas/genres, and thus the opinions, polls and feelings expressed on this site, if they play out in real life, could have a material impact on prewar. And based on examples from the past few weeks, I do believe that is happening.

I think it was already destined to happen. We were on the peak. The scandals may have just triggered it. I think that upward trend was unsustainable. There are only a limited amount of buyers with so much cash.

Also need to factor in resale. If you depend on flipping cards to buy more cards then even a temporary dip in prices could halt that activity.
Even if prices remained stable its a loss on the sales end. At that point where's the new money to support the higher prices?

[sb1]

Just like the equities market, there is no way to know when or where the bottom is, until well after it's been established …..and it's too late to do anything at that point. So, again like that scenario, if you were buying to hold, just keep holding and wait for price stabilization and reappreciation, which might take some time. If you were buying and selling for the short term, it will be tough to get back to a point of recouping costs and most will have to sell at a loss to buy in it at new lows.

Unfortunately some items never come back. Take a look at where most E-card prices are today versus 10 years ago, only a few top tier HOFers are in the plus column.

[MVSNYC]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I'm sure some buyers are a little jittery right now, so we'll see whether things calm down or whether we are in a market correction. I really don't know.

I think Barry is right, simply put, people have pumped the brakes somewhat with aggressive bidding (due to being a little "jittery"). Time will tell if a correction will(is) happen(ing). I do think, however, as mentioned above, true rarity will always hold it's value and command strong prices.

[Throttlesteer]

I honestly hope it is a slight correction, as several cards I've had my eye on have been a bit more than what I'm willing to spend. But, I also believe the jitters are contributing to the lower realized prices; Especially the PSA graded stuff.

There's a bit of irony, considering 6 months ago everyone was throwing their money at dead-centered, lighthouse PSA-graded cards. Now it appears the safest bet might be older flip, off-centered, low grade cards.