State Of The Hobby

[bbcard1]

It may be a stretch, but when you compare the card market to the art market it's pretty mild.

[yanksfan09]

Overall I think the hobby seems quite healthy by all measurements. I do wonder about the ultra high end of the modern market though. The gem mint Brady's, Jordans, Lebrons, Trouts, etc... When you start talking about the 6 figure cards there. Also the price of the rare prospect rookies make you shake your head too at times. For every Mickey Mantle coming up there's 1000 or so Ruben Riveras or Todd Van Poppels. It's certainly a lottery ticket with prospecting. Even the Mike Trout's of the world could have a career ending injury tomorrow.

I don't know how sustainable some of those astronomical prices are when you get into the PSA 10's selling for large multiples of 9's in some cases and when you have 30 different parallels of the same card with the most limited going bonkers.

But who knows maybe those (or at least some of them) will have lasting power too in the hobby but with many of them the quantity(especially combined quantity of different parallels) is too much to sustain the prices in the long term I think.

I still think the scarce - ultra rare HOF pre-war cards and rookies seem to still be a great buy in many instances, even with increasing prices. Especially when compared to cards like the recently auctioned 1997 Metal Green Jordan (PSA Authentic) that goes well into the 6 figures. When compared to cards like that or 6 figure Lebron and Brady RC's, some of these cards seem like bargains still.

[Econteachert205]

The best will continue to outperform. The rest is doomed long term.

[Snapolit1]

My suspicion is that people are making the same dire observations and critiques on this board in April 2019 that they were making somewhere else in April 1979.

"Can you believe some lunatic just paid $5,000 for a Honus Wagner card. Investors are invading and ruining the hobby. This is going to end really badly!"

Hell, I was supposedly late to the Brooklyn, NY land rush of the 1990s. Bought a condo for $85,000 and it was sheer utter insanity. Heard it from a lot of people. Sold long ago and is now on the market for $1.3M.

I will stick with the old line "nobody knows nuthin. . . and if they do they ain't tellin' anyone."

[rjackson44]

david peck is right on the money ,,,

[Arazi4442]

Personally, I'm just a collector. Like many, I got back into collecting once I had some steady employment and a little disposable income. I think I've sold only one or two cards in the past couple years and that was because I was able to locate upgrades.

Leon's point about the number of "investors" in the hobby now would scare me a little if I was in it to turn a profit. We've seen a bull market for close to a decade or more now. I'm sure some of that money is going into collectibles. If the market turns and those investors are suddenly in need of cash, I could see the high-end market taking a nose-dip.

Of course, once the market/economy turned again, we'd probably see another influx of investors vs. collectors driving that high-end market up again. It's probably a cycle, like most things.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I will stick with the old line "nobody knows nuthin. . . and if they do they ain't tellin' anyone."

+1

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Econteachert205

The best will continue to outperform. The rest is doomed long term.

100% agree. However, my definition of best not only includes "highest graded", but also (perhaps more so) ultra-blue chip players, especially rarities of them, and super rare type-cards (like rare back T206s, T214, T215, T216, E92 Crofts/Nadja/Blank, E104-II, etc).

Anyone have an M131 Baltimore Newsboy Cobb to sell?!

[Yastrzemski Sports]

A key to the hobby is the young players in the league. In the past 8 years baseball has thrived starting with Trout and Harper, Altuve, Baez, Bryant and a big swell with Judge and Ohtani. Getting kids into the hobby is a key and they are. I have seen Judge turn a lot of casual fans into buyers. I see more and more shops opening up and staying open. The other factor is breakers. They seem to be running the hobby and open a ton of product. Overall baseball is very strong. Basketball is stronger. Football is doing well and Hockey seems to hold its own. The young talent in sports brings people in who then branch out to the old stuff. Things seem to be going well.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Yastrzemski Sports

A key to the hobby is the young players in the league. In the past 8 years baseball has thrived starting with Trout and Harper, Altuve, Baez, Bryant and a big swell with Judge and Ohtani. Getting kids into the hobby is a key and they are. I have seen Judge turn a lot of casual fans into buyers. I see more and more shops opening up and staying open. The other factor is breakers. They seem to be running the hobby and open a ton of product. Overall baseball is very strong. Basketball is stronger. Football is doing well and Hockey seems to hold its own. The young talent in sports brings people in who then branch out to the old stuff. Things seem to be going well.

This is a bit of tangent, but is football really doing well? In absolute terms, sure, but my understanding is that the NFL is significantly less popular now than it was just 5 years ago. And even if that's not true, there are significantly fewer kids playing football, largely because of the greater awareness about CTE and about concussions in general. I certainly don't want my boys playing football.

[darwinbulldog]

To the original question though, I'd say that the hobby (prewar baseball cards) is about as strong as I've seen now, but only in retrospect will I be able to say if that was a good sign or a bad sign.

There are some cards that I'm a little hesitant to pick up right now, just because they're behaving as if there's a bubble, and there are other things I'm buying up because I think they're undervalued, but again, who knows?

[LincolnVT]

One of the things that I struggle with, is how do new and current players and cards become or stay relevant in the future? Most of the items that I am attracted to are of legends that have come and gone...many of those players cards are scarce, desirable and of value simply because they have been found and still exist. Many more modern stars seem to have scarce cards just because they have been manufactured (intentionally) in a way that makes them valuable...1/1, 1/25, 1/50...with different color schemes, autographs and refractors...

It will be interesting to see if these 1/1 type cards of modern stars continue to trend upwards in say 25 years. Some have sold recently for more than rookie cards of HOF pre-war stars!