State Of The Hobby

[todeen]

Where are we going? Nothing can go up forever. There will be a correction of inflated prices with the next economic turn, just like the hobby crashed in 2008. Die hards will be happy with deflated prices that allow them to complete sets more easily, investors will be upset and the hobby will take ten years to recover again.

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[Stampsfan]

Originally Posted by todeen

Where are we going? Nothing can go up forever. There will be a correction of inflated prices with the next economic turn, just like the hobby crashed in 2008. Die hards will be happy with deflated prices that allow them to complete sets more easily, investors will be upset and the hobby will take ten years to recover again.

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Not so sure. Not everyone has the guts to purchase stocks when they are deflated, but they seem to pop back up (remember Christmas Eve, 2018). If prices fall off, would people have the guts to buy back in?

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by Stampsfan

Not so sure. Not everyone has the guts to purchase stocks when they are deflated, but they seem to pop back up (remember Christmas Eve, 2018). If prices fall off, would people have the guts to buy back in?

This is an excellent point. I am in financial services and many advisors had been telling clients wait for the pullback to deploy cash and when the violent move lower took place they sat on their hands or the clients said lets wait and see what happens.

The other big issue with stocks is the daily volatility can shake you out very easily. With cards at least there is a longer selling cycle generally so in my view they are easier to hold and this is one of the appeals from an investment standpoint.

The hobby is very healthy. When it takes as long as it does to get your cards back from third party graders it isn't because they don't want to get them back to you quickly it is because there are so many being sent in.

I was just having a brief discussion last night with a neighbor about the rate of return that can be achieved in cards and it is astonishing. You don't have to have a lot of money to at least see a positive return on the funds you spend and you get the benefit of owning the hard asset. Buying a card for $20 and selling it for $50 isn't going to change anyone's life but find me another area where the investment minimums are so low and the percentage returns can be so outsized. I don't know of one.

[SAllen2556]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

I was just having a brief discussion last night with a neighbor about the rate of return that can be achieved in cards and it is astonishing. You don't have to have a lot of money to at least see a positive return on the funds you spend and you get the benefit of owning the hard asset. Buying a card for $20 and selling it for $50 isn't going to change anyone's life but find me another area where the investment minimums are so low and the percentage returns can be so outsized. I don't know of one.

Doesn't "astonishing" make you nervous? Doesn't this feel a lot like the early 90's when everyone was buying cards and card shops were everywhere and everyone thought you could pay for your kids' college with cards?

Today we have a gazillion online auction houses. Ebay prices continue to only go up. People are entering the hobby only for the investment.

I dunno. On the one hand I love seeing prices increase, but right now seems like a great to sell - not buy.

[bbcard1]

It may be a stretch, but when you compare the card market to the art market it's pretty mild.

[yanksfan09]

Overall I think the hobby seems quite healthy by all measurements. I do wonder about the ultra high end of the modern market though. The gem mint Brady's, Jordans, Lebrons, Trouts, etc... When you start talking about the 6 figure cards there. Also the price of the rare prospect rookies make you shake your head too at times. For every Mickey Mantle coming up there's 1000 or so Ruben Riveras or Todd Van Poppels. It's certainly a lottery ticket with prospecting. Even the Mike Trout's of the world could have a career ending injury tomorrow.

I don't know how sustainable some of those astronomical prices are when you get into the PSA 10's selling for large multiples of 9's in some cases and when you have 30 different parallels of the same card with the most limited going bonkers.

But who knows maybe those (or at least some of them) will have lasting power too in the hobby but with many of them the quantity(especially combined quantity of different parallels) is too much to sustain the prices in the long term I think.

I still think the scarce - ultra rare HOF pre-war cards and rookies seem to still be a great buy in many instances, even with increasing prices. Especially when compared to cards like the recently auctioned 1997 Metal Green Jordan (PSA Authentic) that goes well into the 6 figures. When compared to cards like that or 6 figure Lebron and Brady RC's, some of these cards seem like bargains still.

[Econteachert205]

The best will continue to outperform. The rest is doomed long term.

[LincolnVT]

One of the things that I struggle with, is how do new and current players and cards become or stay relevant in the future? Most of the items that I am attracted to are of legends that have come and gone...many of those players cards are scarce, desirable and of value simply because they have been found and still exist. Many more modern stars seem to have scarce cards just because they have been manufactured (intentionally) in a way that makes them valuable...1/1, 1/25, 1/50...with different color schemes, autographs and refractors...

It will be interesting to see if these 1/1 type cards of modern stars continue to trend upwards in say 25 years. Some have sold recently for more than rookie cards of HOF pre-war stars!

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by SAllen2556

Doesn't "astonishing" make you nervous? Doesn't this feel a lot like the early 90's when everyone was buying cards and card shops were everywhere and everyone thought you could pay for your kids' college with cards?

Today we have a gazillion online auction houses. Ebay prices continue to only go up. People are entering the hobby only for the investment.

I dunno. On the one hand I love seeing prices increase, but right now seems like a great to sell - not buy.

The card market is just like the stock market. There are always cards moving in every direction and so there may certainly be areas that are overheated but I don't believe there is going to be a melt down in cards and you see it daily on various forums where people are coming back to the hobby.

When I use the term astonishing returns that has been my experience. In the financial world a 6% rate of return with limited volatility is considered great. I just sold a card on EBAY a week ago for over three times what I paid for it a maybe two months earlier. It has no material impact on my life but a 207% return in a few months is an astonishing one.

When you actively submit cards to third party graders is where the huge percentages can occur. Last week a Jack Brisco from the 1982 Wrestling All Stars Series A sold for $660 and is a Pop 3. I own the 10 and 2 of the 9's. One of the 9's I self subbed and paid $2 for the card and with grading I am in at lets say $9. That is over a 73 fold increase. It is incredible.

The math certainly suggests on some cards that the results will be different buying at current prices but just like in the stock market there are loads of instances where someone does great buying high and selling even higher.

I just don't think the doom and gloom is going to play out with cards. Time will tell.

[AGuinness]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

Buying a card for $20 and selling it for $50 isn't going to change anyone's life but find me another area where the investment minimums are so low and the percentage returns can be so outsized. I don't know of one.

I flip cards at COMC and have been pretty successful at doing this, sometimes for not as great a profit, occasionally better and with a hit-and-miss sprinkled in, too. I'm not a big player there or in the hobby in general, but flipping at COMC in addition to my other hobby ventures makes for a diverse and fun hobby.
I think COMC's rise over the past 10 years, in particular, is a strong point for the health of the hobby (in general). The site's foundation is in buying and selling of lower valued cards and in set builders, and the company has grown tremendously. It's now one of the bigger sellers on eBay and elsewhere, I believe.
And here's a hair-brained theory on the state of the hobby, in general, and recent price increases...
Access to the hobby has increased dramatically over the past 10-20 years. eBay is now readily available on most everyone's phone, major auction houses offer numerous auctions every year and people can participate from anywhere in the world, and collectors have the ability to purchase and learn about the hobby at a level that is unprecedented. So, in terms of the demand side, it is easier than ever for a seller to access a greater population of the people who want a card. With the greater access to the demand side, prices have gone up - but perhaps this isn't a bubble for prices, perhaps this is actually more of an accurate representation of true price when it comes to supply and demand.
In this way, despite some high profile scams recently (forged T206s, trimmed cards in high-graded slabs, shilling, etc.), perhaps the state of the hobby is actually as healthy as ever.

[clydepepper]

I'm still having fun, but I use far more resources before making purchases.

[Leon]

Good analysis. I remember about 20 yrs ago when I first started ebay. I knew it was a game changer. I remember putting quite a bit of savings into it, as such. It worked out fairly well back then. Just pick the right cards and don't sell short. And then try to time the stock market.

Originally Posted by AGuinness

I flip cards at COMC and have been pretty successful at doing this, sometimes for not as great a profit, occasionally better and with a hit-and-miss sprinkled in, too. I'm not a big player there or in the hobby in general, but flipping at COMC in addition to my other hobby ventures makes for a diverse and fun hobby.
I think COMC's rise over the past 10 years, in particular, is a strong point for the health of the hobby (in general). The site's foundation is in buying and selling of lower valued cards and in set builders, and the company has grown tremendously. It's now one of the bigger sellers on eBay and elsewhere, I believe.
And here's a hair-brained theory on the state of the hobby, in general, and recent price increases...
Access to the hobby has increased dramatically over the past 10-20 years. eBay is now readily available on most everyone's phone, major auction houses offer numerous auctions every year and people can participate from anywhere in the world, and collectors have the ability to purchase and learn about the hobby at a level that is unprecedented. So, in terms of the demand side, it is easier than ever for a seller to access a greater population of the people who want a card. With the greater access to the demand side, prices have gone up - but perhaps this isn't a bubble for prices, perhaps this is actually more of an accurate representation of true price when it comes to supply and demand.
In this way, despite some high profile scams recently (forged T206s, trimmed cards in high-graded slabs, shilling, etc.), perhaps the state of the hobby is actually as healthy as ever.

[swabie2424]

Fun thread. The age old question!

Lots of excellent points made so I won't rehash.

Allow me to say I totally agree about technology aiding in the success of the market these past 10-20 years. It's just quite simply way easier to buy and sell. My collecting life changed with the ebay app... not having to run back to a computer X number of times per day. Alerts, bid sniping, message boards etc etc. Basically the world is your card store/show and opportunity abounds to build a collection or invest in any way a person desires! Also, in the internet age, with ease of access to quick/solid research, there's just such an awareness of value to possessions for the average non-moron. What once may have been tossed in the trash or thrown into a yard sale bin for a quarter is now posted on an auction site for market value.

To add a new angle, and focus in on the vintage... I've been wondering at what point grading populations are going to begin to completely plateau on pre-war and then subsequently on the pre-70's post-war star player markets. Obviously there's a ways to go but at some point in the coming decades I have to imagine the vast, vast majority of the truly grade-worthy cards will have been slabbed (assuming the grading phenomenon doesn't implode/explode!) At some point, the days of finding major vintage collections in attics, in barns and at yard sales... or that co-worker staggering into work with his deceased dad's ungraded vintage collection... will come to end (with the rarest of exceptions becoming like unicorns.)

When those star player pop reports truly grind to a halt, and there are basically no more 1950's Mantles left to grade if you will... it's going to be very interesting to see what happens to the market.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by swabie2424

Fun thread. The age old question!

Lots of excellent points made so I won't rehash.

Allow me to say I totally agree about technology aiding in the success of the market these past 10-20 years. It's just quite simply way easier to buy and sell. My collecting life changed with the ebay app... not having to run back to a computer X number of times per day. Alerts, bid sniping, message boards etc etc. Basically the world is your card store/show and opportunity abounds to build a collection or invest in any way a person desires! Also, in the internet age, with ease of access to quick/solid research, there's just such an awareness of value to possessions for the average non-moron. What once may have been tossed in the trash or thrown into a yard sale bin for a quarter is now posted on an auction site for market value.

To add a new angle, and focus in on the vintage... I've been wondering at what point grading populations are going to begin to completely plateau on pre-war and then subsequently on the pre-70's post-war star player markets. Obviously there's a ways to go but at some point in the coming decades I have to imagine the vast, vast majority of the truly grade-worthy cards will have been slabbed (assuming the grading phenomenon doesn't implode/explode!) At some point, the days of finding major vintage collections in attics, in barns and at yard sales... or that co-worker staggering into work with his deceased dad's ungraded vintage collection... will come to end (with the rarest of exceptions becoming like unicorns.)

When those star player pop reports truly grind to a halt, and there are basically no more 1950's Mantles left to grade if you will... it's going to be very interesting to see what happens to the market.

Grading will never end, thank God. Cracked slabs will be weaponized and constitute an essential element of national security. The most popular bumper sticker of 2026 will read

CRACK IT FOR UNCLE SAM

[NYYFan63]

Originally Posted by AGuinness

I flip cards at COMC and have been pretty successful at doing this, sometimes for not as great a profit, occasionally better and with a hit-and-miss sprinkled in, too. I'm not a big player there or in the hobby in general, but flipping at COMC in addition to my other hobby ventures makes for a diverse and fun hobby.
I think COMC's rise over the past 10 years, in particular, is a strong point for the health of the hobby (in general). The site's foundation is in buying and selling of lower valued cards and in set builders, and the company has grown tremendously. It's now one of the bigger sellers on eBay and elsewhere, I believe.
And here's a hair-brained theory on the state of the hobby, in general, and recent price increases...
Access to the hobby has increased dramatically over the past 10-20 years. eBay is now readily available on most everyone's phone, major auction houses offer numerous auctions every year and people can participate from anywhere in the world, and collectors have the ability to purchase and learn about the hobby at a level that is unprecedented. So, in terms of the demand side, it is easier than ever for a seller to access a greater population of the people who want a card. With the greater access to the demand side, prices have gone up - but perhaps this isn't a bubble for prices, perhaps this is actually more of an accurate representation of true price when it comes to supply and demand.
In this way, despite some high profile scams recently (forged T206s, trimmed cards in high-graded slabs, shilling, etc.), perhaps the state of the hobby is actually as healthy as ever.

This is a great point. With access to ebay from a smart phone, the demand side has probably increased over the years.

You know what happens when demand exceeds supply...

[conor912]

Originally Posted by NYYFan63

This is a great point. With access to ebay from a smart phone, the demand side has probably increased over the years.

You know what happens when demand exceeds supply...

This is a great point. Never underestimate the power of the uneducated impulse buy.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by conor912

This is a great point. Never underestimate the power of the uneducated impulse buy.

Can there be an educated impulse buy? I think I have made a few of those.

Yes, hobby appears strong in a lot of places.

.