Fake Signed T206 Cards (Too Many to List in the Title, See First Post for List)

[Bigdaddy]

As others have mentioned, it remains to be seen what effect this will have on the hobby - and particularly the prices of pre-war signed cards.

Looking at things from an economics standpoint, we have a market with a small, fixed supply of signed cards. With some of those cards now turning out to be forged, there is a real and significant impact on the supply. As opposed to other players and mediums where the supply is almost limitless (think Bob Feller autographs). So one would think that with supply going down, that prices for authentic autographed cards would rise.

On the other hand, the demand will probably take a hit as some previous buyers will become disillusioned and exit the market. How much, we don't know, but I certainly wouldn't see the demand increasing due to this mess.

So with supply and demand both going down, where does that leave the market? I think it's really up in the air at this time and will depend mostly on what happens to the demand, which is up to us as collectors. And by that I mean a small number of folks - I'd put the over/under at 100 as to the number of folks collecting signed T206s, but I may be way off. Maybe 3 to 5 times that for pre-war cards in general (Goudeys, etc.)

Thoughts?

[oldjudge]

I don't have a dog in this fight, but I think demand will suffer a lot more than supply. I don't believe collectors will trust graders to get it right and I think prices will weaken/crater. I would love to be wrong since I think this will be bad for the hobby, but that is what I believe.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

I don't have a dog in this fight, but I think demand will suffer a lot more than supply. I don't believe collectors will trust graders to get it right and I think prices will weaken/crater. I would love to be wrong since I think this will be bad for the hobby, but that is what I believe.

From my own no dog in the fight perspective I disagree somewhat. I think people WANT to believe the autographs are real, so many or most will tell themselves yeah there was a problem but it's cleaned up now. Wishful thinking will always outstrip cynicism.

[T206Collector]

I still don’t really know where this all will sit with me as time goes on.

But, consider that the Mastro Wagner is still encased in the PSA holder it was given nearly 30 years ago, while a $900 Doyle auto that may very well be legit is viewed as too risky to keep in the PSA holder it was placed into 5 years ago.

By all means, PSA can change its mind, but a little consistency would be appreciated.

[RedsFan1941]

i'd much rather a grading company evaluate the signature itself instead of when it was previously slabbed or what "find" a card might be from.

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by RedsFan1941

i'd much rather a grading company evaluate the signature itself instead of when it was previously slabbed or what "find" a card might be from.

The definition of provenance is “a record of ownership of a work of art or an antique, used as a guide to authenticity or quality.” I’d argue that judging the signature entirely out of context will lead to more mistakes than fewer.

[RedsFan1941]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

The definition of provenance is “a record of ownership of a work of art or an antique, used as a guide to authenticity or quality.” I’d argue that judging the signature entirely out of context will lead to more mistakes than fewer.

and i'd argue that placing too much importance on when a "signed" card was purchased and/or surfaced will end with a collection containing numerous forgeries.

[T206Collector]

I will tell you that one thing I have definitely learned thus far is to preserve the provenance. For years, once the TPA put the signed card in the case, the value of provenance was significantly diminished. The card once entombed was supposedly forever authentic just because a TPA said so. Who needs the letter enclosing the card from Fred Snodgrass when that happens? Auction houses have been separating letters from cards, and throwing the envelopes into even another lot because the player wrote his last name in the return address.

The 2018 Spring Steiner Auction had four signed T206 cards in it from a wonderfully large through the mail collection. Steiner broke the entire collection up and failed to share the evidence of where the cards were obtained, by whom, and how. Did you know, for example, that the baseball address list that the collector used to find his ballplayers was also included deep in the auction, as just a random, soulless vintage baseball player address list?

http://auction.steinersports.com/lot-104975.aspx

There was space for a “description” like “This is how our consignor of hundreds of TTM autographs found his players” but instead it was left appallingly blank. I spent several hours today combing through two different Steiner Auctions to piece back together the fabric and soul of this collection, which by the way happened to include four signed T206 cards. I’ll post more about it when I complete my research.

[Republicaninmass]

Paul's post brings up the "many 52 topps" in the market. 2 enormous finds were sold after the last few years. One find of about 500 sold though LOTG, and another few hundred from long time collector Hugh Critz. There were more than a handful of ttm and auto seekers in the 50s, many I've had the pleasure of meeting on this board and in my pursuit of a signed 1952 set. Provenance is, or should be, a big part of authentication.

[Peter_Spaeth]

It's probably been mentioned already but one consequence may be TPGs become gun shy and decline to authenticate lots of real autos.

[Lordstan]

that is also my concern. Will they now become so conservative that items will fail or be deemed inconclusive. This could also affect auction houses as will they now wind up rejecting more submissions? I think more scrutiny is better in the long run. Hopefully things will fall into a place where getting it right becomes more important that getting more submissions.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It's probably been mentioned already but one consequence may be TPGs become gun shy and decline to authenticate lots of real autos.

Ots already happened at PSA worh the additional of Corcoran and Keating. Its been very tough getting cards passed. I'd think the addition of people at SGC would straighten things out.

[tonyo]

Is the LOTG Doyle Batting one of the t206's that the sleuths on this thread have found the un-signed version of the same card?

What makes everyone think PSA is correct that it is a forgery? What if Al removes a legit card from the hobby?

[Republicaninmass]

Didnt psa authenticated a trimmed wagner, which Mastro admitted to trimming The t206 market wasn't affected and that is the top card in the set, arguably the hobby. It was swept under the rug in a matter of months. I'm betting there are multiple more trimmed cards in holders than forged autos. Is this that much worse?




This should bring even more scrutiny to signed cards, help collectors to do their own diligence, and will boost psa fees and probably prices in the long run.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Didnt psa authenticated a trimmed wagner, which Mastro admitted to trimming The t206 market wasn't affected and that is the top card in the set, arguably the hobby. It was swept under the rug in a matter of months. I'm betting there are multiple more trimmed cards in holders than forged autos. Is this that much worse?




This should bring even more scrutiny to signed cards, help collectors to do their own diligence, and will boost psa fees and probably prices in the long run.

I'm probably as guilty of it as anyone else. We convince ourselves that whatever problems are out there, don't affect us.

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by tonyo

Is the LOTG Doyle Batting one of the t206's that the sleuths on this thread have found the un-signed version of the same card?

What makes everyone think PSA is correct that it is a forgery? What if Al removes a legit card from the hobby?

Agreed. Given that PSA reverted the same Flick from the same original consignment that brought the Doyle, I think there’s a decent chance of that.

And no, it’s from 2013, which predates the current activities which are the subject of this thread.

[conor912]

Originally Posted by Bigdaddy

Looking at things from an economics standpoint, we have a market with a small, fixed supply of signed cards.

Not anymore, we don't.

[obcbobd]

Originally Posted by Bigdaddy

As others have mentioned, it remains to be seen what effect this will have on the hobby - and particularly the prices of pre-war signed cards.

I would think demand would go down big time. I'm just one person, but my dream has been to one day own a signed Goudey Ruth. I figured as long as it was authenticated by JSA I could be comfortable in that it was authentic. As I approach the time where I could afford such a purchase, I am no longer comfortable doing so.

Reminds me of the one time I did by an autograph 25 years ago. It came with a cert. The index card was signed "Robert Clemente", the description in the cert said the card was signed "Best Wishes, Robert Clemente". I called the seller and they said, "no problem, I'll have our auto guy draw up a new cert for you". I returned the card.

[canjond]

Originally Posted by obcbobd

..."no problem, I'll have our auto guy draw up a new cert for you". I returned the card.

At least he didn’t say “no problem, I’ll have our auto guy add the ‘Best Wishes’ for you.”

[mr2686]

Originally Posted by canjond

At least he didn’t say “no problem, I’ll have our auto guy add the ‘Best Wishes’ for you.”

Oh man, you just made me spit up my cereal and milk all over the keyboard. LOL