Are UZIT cards as scarce as BROAD LEAF 460 cards ?

[tedzan]

Originally Posted by Pat R

Ted, I think Jay touched on this in his post using the pop reports and
confirmed subjects for each back.

I know using the pop reports won't be a completely accurate number because
of the crossovers, crack outs ect... but I think between the two backs they
would be close enough to give a general idea.

Uzit = SGC 119 PSA 143 Total 262 @ 58 subjects = 4.51
Broad Leaf 460 SGC 46 PSA 37 Total 83 @ 28 subjects = 2.96

If you go by these numbers the BL460's would be 41.49% scarcer
than Uzit.

I don't agree with that the "262" number regarding actual UZIT cards. The real number is considerably less than 262, as UZIT's have been re-graded (or crossed-over) often.
If I can account for 2 re-grades in the Pop reports, you can bet that there are many, many more. Pop report data (PSA & SGC) regarding UZIT's is misleading as it lists many
more cards than actually exist in the real world. This kind of data skews any scarcity factor calculation when comparing these two rare backs.

The BROAD LEAF 460 Pop report data is less affected by this overstating problem, since many of the BL 460 cards are unique (1/1). Furthermore, we really do not know how
many BL 460 cards are in circulation, since PSA did not identify BL 460 cards for many years. Therefore, the PSA Pop report data on BL 460 cards is incomplete.

My opinion, after chasing UZIT's & BL 460's (amid many other tough T206 backs) for 35 years, is that these 2 scarce backs are equally rare with BL 460 having a slight edge.


TED Z

T206 Reference
.

[Pat R]

Originally Posted by tedzan

I don't agree with that the "262" number regarding actual UZIT cards. The real number is considerably less than 262, as UZIT's have been re-graded (or crossed-over) often.
If I can account for 2 re-grades in the Pop reports, you can bet that there are many, many more. Pop report data (PSA & SGC) regarding UZIT's is misleading as it lists many
more cards than actually exist in the real world. This kind of data skews any scarcity factor calculation when comparing these two rare backs.

The BROAD LEAF 460 Pop report data is less affected by this overstating problem, since many of the BL 460 cards are unique (1/1). Furthermore, we really do not know how
many BL 460 cards are in circulation, since PSA did not identify BL 460 cards for many years. Therefore, the PSA Pop report data on BL 460 cards is incomplete.

My opinion, after chasing UZIT's & BL 460's (amid many other tough T206 backs) for 35 years, is that these 2 scarce backs are equally rare with BL 460 having a slight edge.


TED Z

T206 Reference
.

Well at least we agree on something Ted. I don't think the 262 number for
the Uzit's is accurate either. I took the actual numbers from the pop reports
because just like the Uzit's there are crossovers with the BL460's too and I
think % wise with two rare backs like these the number of crossovers
would be close.

The recently discovered Cobb that sold this spring was crossed over
already and SGC still lists two 1/10's in their pop reports.
Cobb Broadleaf 460 SGC.jpgCobb Broadleaf 460 PSA.jpg

Here's a Rucker that was crossed.
Rucker BL460.jpg

and how many of the SGC's that were 1/1's do you think David Hall picked up
for his master set that are now in PSA holders but still in SGC's pop reports?


For as long as I can remember PSA had the Broad Leaf 460's in their
pop reports they just didn't have them separated from the 350's.

Here's an old pop report from early 2012 and they're in it 16-138 are BL460's
PSA BL pops 1 - Copy.jpg
PSA BL pops 2 - Copy.jpg
PSA BL pops 3 - Copy.jpg

[Rhotchkiss]

Scott, those are great looking cards. I think I saw the BL 460 at the National (I am the dude who bought the E107 Plank). Put the BL 460 in your next auction!

[Baseballcrazy62]

Just a quick question from a relative newcomer to collecting tobacco era cards. Is there a reason no one mentions Beckett’s pop reports? Seems that PSA and SGC are always quoted as sources but never Beckett. Just wondering.

[t206kid]

I of course agree that the pop reports are not the end all be all given cross overs and failure to denote proper back or card variation. But pointing out one-off errors I believe is unhelpful given the magnitude of the pop reports as a data tool. Comparing what the pop report lists for both Uzits and BL460s is going to have a margin of error, but is a useful comparative tool which is what I was getting at here:

Uzit = SGC 119 PSA 143 Total 262 @ 58 subjects = 4.51
Broad Leaf 460 SGC 46 PSA 37 Total 83 @ 28 subjects = 2.96

This ~40% difference in scarcity is a pretty big difference to just quickly explain away and conclude that they're pretty similar.

[Luke]

I agree with Jay. There are going to be cross-over duplications in both the Uzit and BL460 Pop Reports. There's no reason to assume that one of the two backs would have more phantom cards in the report than the other.

There are only a handful of players who have a BL350 and a confirmed BL460. So if PSA gave a generic label to a BL460, we are talking about only a few possible cards. Here are the confirmed BL460 players who also have a pose that was printed with BL350 back:

-Doolan
-Downey
-Snodgrass
-Street

If we assume PSA gave a generic label to a few BL460s featuring the above players, it's still not a significant number. Even assuming 5 would be very generous.


A 40% difference is definitely statistically significant in this case.

[RedsFan1941]

i wish we could hear from some old time t206 collectors who don't post on N54 who could share their lifelong experiences with Uzits and Broad Leaf 460's

[hcv123]

Originally Posted by Luke

I agree with Jay. There are going to be cross-over duplications in both the Uzit and BL460 Pop Reports. There's no reason to assume that one of the two backs would have more phantom cards in the report than the other........

A 40% difference is definitely statistically significant in this case.

Actually the greater the population, the greater chance of error - so I would argue that whatever error rate you want to work with, in absolute terms means more errors in the Uzits due to a larger population.

I agree a 40% difference is statistically significant.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Luke

There are only a handful of players who have a BL350 and a confirmed BL460. So if PSA gave a generic label to a BL460, we are talking about only a few possible cards. Here are the confirmed BL460 players who also have a pose that was printed with BL350 back:

-Doolan
-Downey
-Snodgrass
-Street.

Luke, Evers yellow sky comes in a BL 350 and BL 460 back. I have owned two BL 350s and Derek owns the 460 (and we can’t seem to come to terms on that one, damn it!!).

Whoops, I see Ted posted already posted the others; I thought all super prints came in both.