someone explain the new card market?

[Dpeck100]

It is impossible for every person who speculates on cards from any era to all win. I think your point is well taken and this guy is a baseball fanatic so his chances are immensely better than the person just playing momentum. He does research and really attempts to understand the players fundamentals on the field and lets that drive his speculative activity. Just like stocks you have to sell. So this means you will miss out on some monster gains and you must get comfortable with that. This is a major headwind for the participants chances of success as outliers can make it appear that ones ability to consistently be right is much better than it really is so if you get an outlier on the way down you can be toast. For the most part every hot card is better to be sold into the hype and fast thin markets push a few sales much further than can be sustained in a short window of time and in many cases permanently so most of the time you should take the money. Some of the moves have been simply incredible. Jeremy Lin was an obvious sell! Probably a ton of others could be named.

[Dpeck100]

Peter just for the record I have no valid opinion on the long term for Trout cards or Curry or whomever that is a current player. I just understand the reason the prices are so distorted compared to vintage or more sure fire items and it is simply because of on purpose scarcity to try and lead to this outcome.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

It is impossible for every person who speculates on cards from any era to all win. I think your point is well taken and this guy is a baseball fanatic so his chances are immensely better than the person just playing momentum. He does research and really attempts to understand the players fundamentals on the field and lets that drive his speculative activity. Just like stocks you have to sell. So this means you will miss out on some monster gains and you must get comfortable with that. This is a major headwind for the participants chances of success as outliers can make it appear that ones ability to consistently be right is much better than it really is so if you get an outlier on the way down you can be toast. For the most part every hot card is better to be sold into the hype and fast thin markets push a few sales much further than can be sustained in a short window of time and in many cases permanently so most of the time you should take the money. Some of the moves have been simply incredible. Jeremy Lin was an obvious sell! Probably a ton of others could be named.

Here's a list I just found of 2007-2009 top 10 prospects obviously from people who know a lot, Baseball America. How would you have done betting on these fellas? It looks to me like more bust than boom but don't know.

2007
1.Daisuke Matsuzaka
2.Alex Gordon
3.Delmon Young
4.Phil Hughes
5.Homer Bailey
6.Cameron Maybin
7.Evan Longoria
8.Brandon Wood
9.Justin Upton
10.Andrew Miller

2008
1.Jay Bruce
2.Evan Longoria
3.Joba Chamberlain
4.Clay Buchholz
5.Colby Rasmus
6.Cameron Maybin
7.Clayton Kershaw
8.Franklin Morales
9.Homer Bailey
10.David Price

2009
1.Matt Wieters
2.David Price
3.Colby Rasmus
4.Tommy Hanson
5.Jason Heyward
6.Travis Snider
7.Brett Anderson
8.Cameron Maybin
9.Madison Bumgarner
10.Neftali Feliz

[Dpeck100]

One thing to remember is that plenty flame out but there is massive upside volatility where someone wins and someone loses.


Short term gyrations in tradable assets create opportunity. Plenty of that here.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

One thing to remember is that plenty flame out but there is massive upside volatility where someone wins and someone loses.


Short term gyrations in tradable assets create opportunity. Plenty of that here.

Sure, but there is also a very high risk is my only point. And my guess is that like the stock market, most people who speculate lose.

[Dpeck100]

I think you are right. That said not all strategies carry the same risk. When I have had good runs in trading options it was actually lots of singles and doubles that produced the results not home runs. When I have gotten killed it was going for home runs. I am sure this applies to modern day baseball card traders. I call them traders because that is what they are. People like you and I work on collections. Entirely different mindset.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

I think you are right. That said not all strategies carry the same risk. When I have had good runs in trading options it was actually lots of singles and doubles that produced the results not home runs. When I have gotten killed it was going for home runs. I am sure this applies to modern day baseball card traders. I call them traders because that is what they are. People like you and I work on collections. Entirely different mindset.

Yeah thus my thoughts on (e.g.) Jose Ramirez, less of an upside than some kid still not shaving whose autograph Bowman is already worth 5K, but less of a risk because he has proven he can play, and play well.

Sure, people do get very lucky, but it's only with hindsight that it looks like an obvious move. For example, as a Sox fan, I had a hunch Mookie was due to have a breakout year. And of course had I bought a ton of his cards at the beginning of the year I'd have made a big profit as his best cards have really climbed. But ex ante, was it a good risk? I easily could have felt the same way about Carlos Correa, who is mired in a massive slump.

[VoodooChild]

When I first got back into collecting around 2010, it was the modern card speculating that drew me in. You're right Peter, for every Trout (obviously) but even guys like Arenado that I "hit" on, there were at least ten guys like Rasmus and Snider that were big misses. Then I got into pre-war and vintage in 2013 and sold a lot of my modern. While I did make out very good on my "hits", my profits were limited due to the amount of misses. I still did ok though due to hitting more often with football.

Now, I just do a little prospecting for fun. I'll pick a few guys each year and not top-100 prospect guys. I do spend some time researching and I only buy hitters as pitchers are just way too risky and injury prone. I'll buy the lowest #'d chrome auto I can get for under $20 which is normally a /250 or /150. Then I just throw them in a box and see what happens in 5 years.

I just checked on a guy I bought a couple years ago named Hudson Potts (although his last name was Sanchez when he was drafted). Apparently he hit 20 dingers last year in A ball with a ton of K's though and is doing well in high-A now and striking out less. I think I got his chrome auto #'d/150 for like $15 and it's selling for 4 to 5 times that right now. I should probably cash out, but I'll roll the dice and see how he turns out. Like I said, it's just for fun.

[tschock]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yeah thus my thoughts on (e.g.) Jose Ramirez, less of an upside than some kid still not shaving whose autograph Bowman is already worth 5K, but less of a risk because he has proven he can play, and play well.

Sure, people do get very lucky, but it's only with hindsight that it looks like an obvious move. For example, as a Sox fan, I had a hunch Mookie was due to have a breakout year. And of course had I bought a ton of his cards at the beginning of the year I'd have made a big profit as his best cards have really climbed. But ex ante, was it a good risk? I easily could have felt the same way about Carlos Correa, who is mired in a massive slump.

Peter,

You have a retirement investor mindset in a day trader world. So do I, which is why I couldn't play this game. Even a few months in a season is a relatively long time for these traders.

It's not so much that those successful in this know much more than others, it's just that when there is movement, they move (more) quickly (than others).