Does WAR mean anything??

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

So after 15 games he has supposedly cost his team close to a full game compared to the average outfielder? That sounds insane.

According the baseball reference, he is the worst defensive player in the National League and 3rd worst in MLB. Also, WAR is unrelated to team wins, it is just a number.

[packs]

Originally Posted by rats60

According the baseball reference, he is the worst defensive player in the National League and 3rd worst in MLB. Also, WAR is unrelated to team wins, it is just a number.

No one should use BR as a reference for defense. They have Mattingly with a negative dWAR for his career despite him winning 9 Gold Gloves and being seen universally as an elite defender.

[tschock]

Based on Peter's question and subsequent comments, I believe I've found the answer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01-2pNCZiNk

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by tschock

Based on Peter's question and subsequent comments, I believe I've found the answer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01-2pNCZiNk

“Dick, it has a great beat and is easy to dance to. Edwin is really cute as well. Thumbs up for WAR.”

[Rookiemonster]

I once brought up this point and got attacked by every angle. I think you can make a better judgement with the basic stats and a good old fashioned eye test.

[nat]

Defensive measures tend to swing around wildly. The problem is probably that Harper had a few bad games defensively and hasn't yet had enough good games to make up for them. By the end of the season he almost certainly will though.

Same deal with Dickerson, just the other way around. Dickerson isn't a good fielder. He's probably made a few spectacular plays early this season, and his usual lackluster plays haven't made up for them yet. But they will.

Think about it this way: Jed Lowrie isn't going to lead the majors in RBIs this season. But he is leading the majors in RBIs right now. He's had unusual success batting with men on base early this season, but by the end of the year his batting in clutch situations will drop off and Springer or somebody like that will lead the league in RBIs. Same deal with Harper/Dickerson on defense.

[Exhibitman]

Reversion to the mean. Look it up. Cruddy players and teams may be great for a short time and vice versa but over time they go back to their natural places in the pecking order. Brian Doyle hit .438 in the 1978 Series; his lifetime BA is .161. He had a hell of a hot hand in 6 games but went back to being a scrub after that. See also Brosius, Scott.

[Peter_Spaeth]

That said, there have been some players who for some reason played way above their "mean" for an entire season. Norm Cash 1961 comes immediately to mind. Steve Stone I forget which year. Brady Anderson but that probably had an explanation.

[drcy]

The answer is never go by just one metric, and it's the fool who uses just one. Just as in science (or authentication) where you never go by one type of test. A metric or scientific test often gives useful, and even essential, information, but you should never come to a final conclusion by just the one.

And when doing or looking at precise mathematical or statistical calculations, keep in mind what Economics Nobel Prize winner Wassily Leontief said: "Page after page of academic journals are filled with mathematical formulas leading the reader from sets of more or less plausible but entirely arbitrary assumptions to precisely stated but irrelevant theoretical conclusions."

Someone just yesterday asked what was my definition of genius, and I said "Someone who sees the forest not just the trees, where others see just the trees." Some would call that enlightenment.