Black Swamp Find E98 set break

[hshrimps]

I feel bad to the owner who owned the nicest E98 set from Black Swamp Find losing $200k+ in 5 yrs. Just the PSA 10 E98 Wagner alone already lose $130k.

Truly sad....... Anyone feel the same? Or it is kind of expected?

[ullmandds]

the writing was on the wall regarding this find...atleast to me. based on the shear # of high grade cards in this find.

this find changed the whole price structure for this issue.

[rjackson44]

with pete smart words

[hshrimps]

I guess it is expected but whoever can afford the nicest set together probably doesn't care the $200k hit..... probably can write off from taxes.

[sterlingfox]

I think it will eventually start going back up again, but it will take some time.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by sterlingfox

I think it will eventually start going back up again, but it will take some time.

nope...I disagree.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by hshrimps

I guess it is expected but whoever can afford the nicest set together probably doesn't care the $200k hit..... probably can write off from taxes.

agree. many in the hobby are still leary of these cards.

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by hshrimps

I guess it is expected but whoever can afford the nicest set together probably doesn't care the $200k hit..... probably can write off from taxes.

I'm pretty sure he cares. No one wants to take that kind of hit regardless of their net worth.

I've wondered on finds like that if someone would be better off not announcing the big find and introducing the cards to the hobby one at a time every few months or so.

[Gradedcardman]

The cards were amazing but simply brought to market the wrong way. I am sure the owners of the cards wanted them all done quickly so they could capitalize on the novelty and immediate interest but many many dollars left on the table by not being patient.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by pokerplyr80

I'm pretty sure he cares. No one wants to take that kind of hit regardless of their net worth.

I've wondered on finds like that if someone would be better off not announcing the big find and introducing the cards to the hobby one at a time every few months or so.

exactly...if say a psa9 or 10 cobb or wags was put up for auction with no mention of the find it would have brought huge money as no e98 had ever been graded so high.

but then again...there were so many cards in this find that eventually the jig would be up...but those first few cards could have brought huge huge $$$$$$.

[sterlingfox]

As they get absorbed into collections and become less available, they will gradually begin the upward trend. It's only a matter of time.

Look at how many high grade T206s are out there, and they continue to rise.

The only thing to be leery about is paying what they sold for a few years ago.

You'll also notice that the player/background combos that weren't a part of the find have maintained healthy values in mid to low grade.

Originally Posted by ullmandds

nope...I disagree.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by sterlingfox

As they get absorbed into collections and become less available, they will gradually begin the upward trend. It's only a matter of time.

Look at how many high grade T206s are out there, and they continue to rise.

The only thing to be leery about is paying what they sold for a few years ago.

You'll also notice that the player/background combos that weren't a part of the find have maintained healthy values in mid to low grade.

i'll agree to disagree with you on this one. you can't compare desirability of e98 to t206.

factors that will keep e98 bs find cards down are as follows:

-there will always be those skeptical of this find's legitimacy.

-the fact e98 is not associated with any "brand"

-the highest graded big names will always price many collectors out of the running

i see trend mirroring the rest of the hobby...common bsf cards will continue to be priced low...exp off centered ones.

the cobbs/wagners will maintain much of their value but less than initially sold for in some cases.

I do agree that colors/players not in the find will maintain/appreciate somewhat more than those present.

[hshrimps]

But it would be tough to inject hundreds of PSA 8 & 9 quality vintage card into the market (even slowly). Someone will definitely flag those as high quality reprints and people start asking where/how the printer found those vintage cardboard and printing plates etc.

[hshrimps]

All auction houses would suggest using "honest approach" to notify the hobby of such important find and make them available (pretty much) all at once. Since they all know if they wait and introduce them into a few auctions then the opportunities may swim to other auction houses. We are talking about quarter to half a millions of consignment/buyers fees.

[sterlingfox]

At the very least, I can see the BSF cards maintaining their current levels, which are abysmally lower than what they initially sold for - especially the HOFers. Some of them have sold for as little as 20% of their initial sale price in the past year or so.

The trend upward may take another decade or more to begin and will be extremely gradual. At a much slower rate than the popular T cards.

If it's determined that these were all fakes, then of course they will become worthless, but otherwise, they are incredibly beautiful for their age, regardless of no branding.

The off centered ones will always be much cheaper, but that's a trend across the entire hobby.

Highest graded big names in any release will always "price many collectors out of the running".

Originally Posted by ullmandds

i'll agree to disagree with you on this one. you can't compare desirability of e98 to t206.

factors that will keep e98 bs find cards down are as follows:

-there will always be those skeptical of this find's legitimacy.

-the fact e98 is not associated with any "brand"

-the highest graded big names will always price many collectors out of the running

i see trend mirroring the rest of the hobby...common bsf cards will continue to be priced low...exp off centered ones.

the cobbs/wagners will maintain much of their value but less than initially sold for in some cases.

I do agree that colors/players not in the find will maintain/appreciate somewhat more than those present.

[ullmandds]

for the record...I DO NOT believe they are fake/repro.

[sycks22]

Originally Posted by hshrimps

I feel bad to the owner who owned the nicest E98 set from Black Swamp Find losing $200k+ in 5 yrs. Just the PSA 10 E98 Wagner alone already lose $130k.

Truly sad....... Anyone feel the same? Or it is kind of expected?

I was debating making a thread that talked about this too. No way someone who spent over $300k on that Wagner thought they'd make profit on it. I think they were trying to cut their losses and move on.

[iowadoc77]

Originally Posted by sycks22

I was debating making a thread that talked about this too. No way someone who spent over $300k on that Wagner thought they'd make profit on it. I think they were trying to cut their losses and move on.

i think this makes a lot of sense. I am also with Pete on the plateau of these cards. i certainly would like them to go up, but won't hold my breath. I have the E98 set and it is pieced together with some BSF and most non-BSF and I think I am more optimistic about the future value of the non-BSF cards.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by hshrimps

I feel bad to the owner who owned the nicest E98 set from Black Swamp Find losing $200k+ in 5 yrs. Just the PSA 10 E98 Wagner alone already lose $130k.

Truly sad....... Anyone feel the same? Or it is kind of expected?

How much of this is because of who auctioned it off and how little it was promoted. Heritage made a big deal when they sold these cards. Do you think they would have brought more eyes to the resale? What about REA? Their auctions seem to always bring big bucks. Several people must have been bidding to get the Wagner up to 300k. Where are the underbidders or new investment blood? Did they even know the card was up for sale again?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by rats60

How much of this is because of who auctioned it off and how little it was promoted. Heritage made a big deal when they sold these cards. Do you think they would have brought more eyes to the resale? What about REA? Their auctions seem to always bring big bucks. Several people must have been bidding to get the Wagner up to 300k. Where are the underbidders or new investment blood? Did they even know the card was up for sale again?

I don't think the current sale was advertised well at all. If I were the consignor to that auction house I might have a conversation with them about where they market and advertise . That said, it is always the higher the value the greater chance of a big loss. When Heritage auctioned it, it was in all of the National headlines and very well advertised on this forum. (I am biased)

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Leon

I don't think the current sale was advertised well at all. If I were the consignor to that auction house I might have a conversation with them about where they market and advertise . That said, it is always the higher the value the greater chance of a big loss. When Heritage auctioned it, it was in all of the National headlines and very well advertised on this forum. (I am biased)

Not biased, but I don't understand why auction houses don't take advantage of the large customer base here. If something is advertised here, I am at least going to look through the auction to see if there is anything that I am interested in. The more eyes on an auction, the potential for more bids and higher ending prices.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by rats60

Not biased, but I don't understand why auction houses don't take advantage of the large customer base here. If something is advertised here, I am at least going to look through the auction to see if there is anything that I am interested in. The more eyes on an auction, the potential for more bids and higher ending prices.

The auction houses that don't advertise here usually have some baggage they don't like being discussed on this forum. And they know they get very little protection from it (as they shouldn't). Therefore their consignors suffer. I hope our members will continue to use our advertisers for their consignments and buying. There might be a new Net54baseball consignment service coming too. Who doesn't want their consignments to reach the largest audiences they can AND get the best rates too? That said I would also like to welcome Steiner Sports as our newest advertiser. Ya'll will be seeing more from them soon....

[MikeGarcia]

..".There might be a new Net54baseball consignment service coming too. Who doesn't want their consignments to reach the largest audiences they can AND get the best rates too?"


....I see a lot of beverages being sprayed out onto a lot of keyboards and monitors , if my reaction is typical....

..this is awesome to contemplate...thanks for even thinking in that direction...

..

[T206Collector]

I'm a little confused by the "Black Swamp Find" and this latest auction highlights my concern.

The original poster said "I feel bad to the owner who owned the nicest E98 set from Black Swamp Find losing $200k+ in 5 yrs." But, there were a number of E98s sold in this Memory Lane auction that were not previously sold (at least not publicly) through Heritage Auctions. There are a few examples, but here is the E98 Green Davis PSA 7:

https://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/...e?itemid=44260

The PSA Serial Number 19872196 appropriately places this Davis within the Davis E98 Swamp population based on the sales of that card through Heritage, but you will notice that it never appears in their prior listings:

https://www.ha.com/c/search-results....rch-A-K-071316

I also do not think it came from a previously sold SGC version (but, I could be proven wrong on this, I suppose, if someone has contrary evidence).

In short, it does look like to me that a number of these E98 Swamp cards had not previously been sold to the public. But not only do I not think this was necessarily the "nicest E98 set" -- which was sold here and may very well still be together somewhere....

The Near Set that Heritage Sold as a Group:
https://sports.ha.com/itm/baseball/1...ription-071515

The Color Variations that Heritage Sold as a Group:
https://sports.ha.com/itm/baseball/1...ription-071515

...but we don't really know how the consignor to Memory Lane did based on a prior sale of many of the cards.

Still, I don't really take issue with the notion of the prices going down so hard lately. I am more interested in whether there is some funny business going on in terms of additional "new" E98 Swamp cards being "leaked" into the public in different ways in an attempt to address the concerns raised about maximizing sale prices -- e.g., by not going only through Heritage and in this case going through Memory Lane.

Any thoughts?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

I'm a little confused by the "Black Swamp Find" and this latest auction highlights my concern.

The original poster said "I feel bad to the owner who owned the nicest E98 set from Black Swamp Find losing $200k+ in 5 yrs." But, there were a number of E98s sold in this Memory Lane auction that were not previously sold (at least not publicly) through Heritage Auctions. There are a few examples, but here is the E98 Green Davis PSA 7:

https://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/...e?itemid=44260

The PSA Serial Number 19872196 appropriately places this Davis within the Davis E98 Swamp population based on the sales of that card through Heritage, but you will notice that it never appears in their prior listings:

https://www.ha.com/c/search-results....rch-A-K-071316

I also do not think it came from a previously sold SGC version (but, I could be proven wrong on this, I suppose, if someone has contrary evidence).

In short, it does look like to me that a number of these E98 Swamp cards had not previously been sold to the public. But not only do I not think this was necessarily the "nicest E98 set" -- which was sold here and may very well still be together somewhere....

The Near Set that Heritage Sold as a Group:
https://sports.ha.com/itm/baseball/1...ription-071515

The Color Variations that Heritage Sold as a Group:
https://sports.ha.com/itm/baseball/1...ription-071515

...but we don't really know how the consignor to Memory Lane did based on a prior sale of many of the cards.

Still, I don't really take issue with the notion of the prices going down so hard lately. I am more interested in whether there is some funny business going on in terms of additional "new" E98 Swamp cards being "leaked" into the public in different ways in an attempt to address the concerns raised about maximizing sale prices -- e.g., by not going only through Heritage and in this case going through Memory Lane.

Any thoughts?

I would be shocked if the M L ones were new to the hobby. I am willing to bet they are retreads.

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by Leon

I would be shocked if the M L ones were new to the hobby. I am willing to bet they are retreads.

Maybe I'm getting mixed up by some combination of the PSA pop report, the consecutive serial numbers, a few that were graded by SGC (either first run, or retread), and other re-grades or re-submissions.

PSA has 17 Green Davis BSF in their pop reports. 15 of those can be attributed to the following serial numbers from Heritage Auction history:

2179
[GAP]
2181
[GAP]
2183
2184
2185
[GAP]
2187
2188
2189
2190
2191
2192
2193
2194
2195
[GAP] --> Memory Lane 2196
2199 --> this largest serial number (and apparently last in the grouping) was part of this auction from 2012 -- when the Find started going live on Heritage:

https://sports.ha.com/itm/baseball/1...ription-071515


Basically, there are a few gaps here -- and one of the gaps just showed up in Memory Lane. Maybe it's a cross-over or re-holder, but does PSA leave gaps in its serial numbers for just such an occasion? Seems unlikely to me.

[tbob]

I remember well when I put together the first of several E98 sets that the highest grades (then) were 4s and 5s on some of the players. The current master set I have contains mostly 4s and 5s but there are several Black Swamp Find high graded cards mixed in. I patiently waited while the crazy prices for the early releases gradually slid down in to normalcy and paid a much more reasonable amount for 8's on several cards.
The one thing I wanted to chime in on are the orange and more specifically the blue backgrounds which weren't a part of the Black Swamp Find. While the prices on the reds have taken a nose dive with the BSF and many greens have followed suit, oranges have remained solid in their pricing and blues are continuing to climb. There are several blues which are extremely hard to find in high grade and even some which are difficult to find in 4 or 5.
Oh well, as long as a huge cache of E94s don't show up in a "White Rock Find" I'm good.

[egbeachley]

I believe the family told Heritage that they did NOT want the cards slowly released to maximize results as they thought it would be unfair to trick the first buyers into paying more.

Possibly a few were held back per the wishes of a family member who wanted to keep a few? Then he decided to sell?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by egbeachley

I believe the family told Heritage that they did NOT want the cards slowly released to maximize results as they thought it would be unfair to trick the first buyers into paying more.

Possibly a few were held back per the wishes of a family member who wanted to keep a few? Then he decided to sell?

They did tell them that.
A few could have been held back but I don't think so. That family, with whom I met several of its members including the main gentleman dealing with the collection, were stellar folks and no way in heck would have played shenanigans or not been truthful. No way....I think they all came out in Heritage and are being traded after that from different venues and, sometimes, different holders.

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by egbeachley

Possibly a few were held back per the wishes of a family member who wanted to keep a few? Then he decided to sell?

That would be my guess as well -- that someone in the family (or with pre-Heritage access) decided to sell, and went with an auction house other than Heritage to sell. I thought I saw some in the Memory Lane auction that had previously been sold through Heritage, but a quick glance at a few suggests I might be wrong about that...

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by Leon

They did tell them that.
A few could have been held back but I don't think so. That family, with whom I met several of its members including the main gentleman dealing with the collection, were stellar folks and no way in heck would have played shenanigans or not been truthful. No way....I think they all came out in Heritage and are being traded after that from different venues and, sometimes, different holders.

Not suggesting that they're not being truthful or that they're being sneaky. I have exchanged a few correspondence with the family as well, and understand that their deal with Heritage was for 5 years, which expired this year. This would also be consistent with trying to sell some they had initially decided to keep. There were an awful lot of family members with vested interests in the collection. It wouldn't be at all surprising to keep a set or two for the family in memorium and then five years later -- once Heritage ran dry -- decide it's time to move on for any good reason or other.

The "different holders" argument doesn't make a lot of sense to me given the way the serial numbers -- that appear to have been set in a specific order in 2012 -- line up with the gaps I described above.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

Not suggesting that they're not being truthful or that they're being sneaky. I have exchanged a few correspondence with the family as well, and understand that their deal with Heritage was for 5 years, which expired this year. This would also be consistent with trying to sell some they had initially decided to keep. There were an awful lot of family members with vested interests in the collection. It wouldn't be at all surprising to keep a set or two for the family in memorium and then five years later -- once Heritage ran dry -- decide it's time to move on for any good reason or other.

The "different holders" argument doesn't make a lot of sense to me given the way the serial numbers -- that appear to have been set in a specific order in 2012 -- line up with the gaps I described above.

I didn't know their deal was a 5 yrs deal. Maybe some were held back, like I said, but I would be surprised. It wouldn't be the first time I have ever been surprised. As for the serial numbers I was talking in other graders (SGC) holders....

[T206Collector]

Stated another way -- when you line up all of the Heritage Black Swamp sales in PSA serial number order, and then try to align the PSA population report with those sales, you are left with some interesting gaps that call into question the accuracy of the pop reports, as well as the location of the cards with the missing serial numbers, that I don't think can be explained by crossing over. When Memory Lane has an auction this past month where so many of the cards --maybe all of them?--were previously not in those holders in a Heritage auction, and the serial numbers fill the gaps in the Heritage serial number ordering, the held back explanation does make sense in that context.

[T206Collector]

Case in point - someone buys the SGC 30 Mack, which is way off center and has it crossed over to PSA, knowing it will get an OC or MC qualifier, to show that it is otherwise crease and defect free.

The original run of Heritage Macks graded by PSA are all shown with serial numbers in the 19871820s, 30s, and 40s.

The new PSA holder carries the following serial number — 25420189 —totally out of line with the others in the family.

So clearly PSA is not holding spaces for Black Swamp cards in its serial numbers (if they were Mack would’ve slotted back into its original PSA case - assuming there was one before the SGC version wound up on Heritage). If they’re not being held out of circulation for some reason, like the Memory Lane Black Swampers, then maybe they were initially graded by PSA and then removed from circulation (and the pop report) and graded by SGC before being sold. If you add the Memory Lane Green Davis as well as the four SGC Green Davises on the Heritage website, you are then left with just one space in the series - one heretofore undisclosed E98 Davis Green Swamper.

I find the whole distribution of these sharp little buggers to be really interesting. And I do wonder whether there are more out there to be sold in future auctions.

[kailes2872]

Pete,
I read about the BSF when it came out but I was not yet on this site. I did an archive search and read the main thread. However, I was confused about this statement

-there will always be those skeptical of this find's legitimacy

I don't mean to be dense, but could you elaborate?

Thanks!

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by kailes2872

Pete,
I read about the BSF when it came out but I was not yet on this site. I did an archive search and read the main thread. However, I was confused about this statement




I don't mean to be dense, but could you elaborate?

Thanks!

Some people out there do not believe these cards are original...that they may have been reproduced somehow.

[glynparson]

Minimum size cards or altered can screw up the consecutive numbering.

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by glynparson

Minimum size cards or altered can screw up the consecutive numbering.

Thank you! That is helpful information.

[ccre]

So I have a Mordecai Brown PSA 8 Black Swamp. Not that I'm selling it anytime soon. But would it be wise to pop it out of the PSA case and have regraded as a non Black Swamp find?

[Stonepony]

Originally Posted by ccre

So I have a Mordecai Brown PSA 8 Black Swamp. Not that I'm selling it anytime soon. But would it be wise to pop it out of the PSA case and have regraded as a non Black Swamp find?

Don't do that

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by Stonepony

Don't do that

+1

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by Leon

I didn't know their deal was a 5 yrs deal. Maybe some were held back, like I said, but I would be surprised. It wouldn't be the first time I have ever been surprised. As for the serial numbers I was talking in other graders (SGC) holders....

Just confirmed that the family did not sell all of them through Heritage. They sold a group of cards through the estate with the stipulation that the buyer could not sell them until all of the family's cards were sold. All of the family's cards are, indeed, now sold; but previously unreleased ones are now making their way into the market via the purchases directly from the estate.

[ullmandds]

the bsf is the gift that keeps on giving.

[Baseball Rarities]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

Just confirmed that the family did not sell all of them through Heritage. They sold a group of cards through the estate with the stipulation that the buyer could not sell them until all of the family's cards were sold. All of the family's cards are, indeed, now sold; but previously unreleased ones are now making their way into the market via the purchases directly from the estate.

Interesting. Any idea what sort of additional quantities there are?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

Just confirmed that the family did not sell all of them through Heritage. They sold a group of cards through the estate with the stipulation that the buyer could not sell them until all of the family's cards were sold. All of the family's cards are, indeed, now sold; but previously unreleased ones are now making their way into the market via the purchases directly from the estate.

I am surprised (a little.) It won't be the last time. Hmmm...so I wonder if the ones not sold by Heritage are/were already in the pop reports? I assume so but that is a big assumption.

[swarmee]

Not a big assumption; their Cert #s were already included in the same range, so they were all graded at the same time. If you had the time and inclination, you could track them all in a spreadsheet. Or use PSA's new Auction Price Realized tool to see which have sold and which haven't.

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by swarmee

Not a big assumption; their Cert #s were already included in the same range, so they were all graded at the same time. If you had the time and inclination, you could track them all in a spreadsheet. Or use PSA's new Auction Price Realized tool to see which have sold and which haven't.

I took a crack at this a few months ago, and put some of my findings earlier in this thread. I had inquired of the family back then as well, but only just today got my answer.

While I agree that PSA seems to have graded them all in the beginning, and that not all of those made it into a Heritage Auction, I am still concerned that some of the SGC graded BSF cards may not have come from the original PSA population, and instead were submitted after the fact by a purchaser through the estate. Perhaps SGC can confirm whether they graded any BSF cards that had not been previously graded by PSA.

And it does seem to be that there was only one purchaser outside of the Heritage process. I will try to find out more about the number of cards sold outside of the process, but it may take me awhile to get an answer.

[Yoda]

Has the Matty BSF pricing held up despite recent sharp declines by other key cards? Believe there weren't too many cards of him found in the Swamp.

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Has the Matty BSF pricing held up despite recent sharp declines by other key cards? Believe there weren't too many cards of him found in the Swamp.

It's moving up steadily in the current Heritage, and is at $3,600.

[Baseball Rarities]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Has the Matty BSF pricing held up despite recent sharp declines by other key cards? Believe there weren't too many cards of him found in the Swamp.

There was only one Mathewson in the BSF - a PSA 6 OC.