Calling ticket experts! - holy grail find?

[EYECOLLECTVINTAGE]

Dave I obviously didn't mean the same exact one literally. You really made a presentation piece to make me look bad lol

[EYECOLLECTVINTAGE]

Ok so here are some thoughts I want to share regarding these tickets and maybe I am opening up a can of worms, but I am confident in my assessment so here it goes.

I had SGC look at this sheet this past weekend and they are good 1000%.

As far as value, I had someone at the Hofstra show interested in these.

He asked what I wanted and I told him what I paid and said I obviously think they are worth more than that. He then tells me he would think these are worth anywhere from 4500-7000 which I agreed with, however he wanted to call a few people.

He called 3 top ticket people in the industry (some whom are probably members here) and they mostly agreed that these are 2500-3500 at most and not very uncommon.

Here is what I am having some trouble grasping....

1. So this guy is a huge long time Ruth collector whom has a large collection from signed balls to gamer bats. He has never seen this before.

Everyone I have shown this to (dealers included) have never seen this before, but somehow it's not an uncommon item?

I am having a lot of trouble with this evaluation both in regards to scarcity and value.

Here is why...

I searched worthpoint, google and many other sites and came up with nothing.

It wasn't until Dave shared that 2012 heritage link where is was sold as part of a lot that I even knew another existed.

These are not common. There are barely even many single ticket proof documented sales or in the population report for PSA (I know that the Pop report doesn't mean as much), BUT PSA has only graded 9 Game 3 Proofs and 6 Game 4 Proofs and at the same time 7 Full Game 3 Tickets and 4 Game 4 Tickets.

These seem almost equally scarce with the information given.

I did a worthpoint and google search going back to 2013 (obviously the market has rocketed since then) and here is what I found.

GAME 3

October 12 2016 - Game 3 Proof PSA - $3350.05
April 22 2015 - Game 3 Proof PSA - $2250
March 05 2015 - Game 3 Proof PSA - $5000
December 4 2014 - Mile High Game 3 Proof PSA - $1,535.76
December 31 2013 - Game 3 Proof - $5750


GAME 4

December 18 2013 - Game 4 Proof PSA - $801
August 22 2013 - Game 4 Proof PSA - $4000


GAME 5
​​​​​​​
This game does not trade often, but when it does, it commonly sells in the $150-$300 range as it is a mere novelty.


Now these are single game proofs. These are factual sales. Look at the gap between sales.

I am sure I may be missing a few that did not pop up.

Given this information, how can one value this sheet at $2500-$3500?

You can break these down and get the following..

GAME 3 = $3577.12 average (including that mile high anomaly) $4087.50 without it.

Game 4 = I would estimate this game to be worth at least $1300 as I will not attempt to average only 2 numbers with one being $4000 and one being $800.

Game 5 = Let's say $250.

With that low Mile High anomaly included, one could reasonably expect sell the 3 tickets broken down for $5127.12.

If you take out the Mile high ticket, you would be at $5637.50

ALSO. Keep in mind there are no documented sales in 2017 yet and we are definitely in a BULL ticket market right now as is evidence from all ticket sales of all sports and years.

NOW... do we not add anything for this being a high grade complete sheet? does the scarcity add no value?

Ok even if it doesn't (which I disagree with) look at the above numbers. It is simple math.

Value is subjective, however numbers don't lie. $2500 would be taking the lowest sales from each ticket ever.

There it is. I am done, just dislike how people are number blind when it comes to opinions.

[Forever Young]

Originally Posted by EYECOLLECTVINTAGE

Ok so here are some thoughts I want to share regarding these tickets and maybe I am opening up a can of worms, but I am confident in my assessment so here it goes.

I had SGC look at this sheet this past weekend and they are good 1000%.

As far as value, I had someone at the Hofstra show interested in these.

He asked what I wanted and I told him what I paid and said I obviously think they are worth more than that. He then tells me he would think these are worth anywhere from 4500-7000 which I agreed with, however he wanted to call a few people.

He called 3 top ticket people in the industry (some whom are probably members here) and they mostly agreed that these are 2500-3500 at most and not very uncommon.

Here is what I am having some trouble grasping....

1. So this guy is a huge long time Ruth collector whom has a large collection from signed balls to gamer bats. He has never seen this before.

Everyone I have shown this to (dealers included) have never seen this before, but somehow it's not an uncommon item?

I am having a lot of trouble with this evaluation both in regards to scarcity and value.

Here is why...

I searched worthpoint, google and many other sites and came up with nothing.

It wasn't until Dave shared that 2012 heritage link where is was sold as part of a lot that I even knew another existed.

These are not common. There are barely even many single ticket proof documented sales or in the population report for PSA (I know that the Pop report doesn't mean as much), BUT PSA has only graded 9 Game 3 Proofs and 6 Game 4 Proofs and at the same time 7 Full Game 3 Tickets and 4 Game 4 Tickets.

These seem almost equally scarce with the information given.

I did a worthpoint and google search going back to 2013 (obviously the market has rocketed since then) and here is what I found.

GAME 3

October 12 2016 - Game 3 Proof PSA - $3350.05
April 22 2015 - Game 3 Proof PSA - $2250
March 05 2015 - Game 3 Proof PSA - $5000
December 4 2014 - Mile High Game 3 Proof PSA - $1,535.76
December 31 2013 - Game 3 Proof - $5750


GAME 4

December 18 2013 - Game 4 Proof PSA - $801
August 22 2013 - Game 4 Proof PSA - $4000


GAME 5
​​​​​​​
This game does not trade often, but when it does, it commonly sells in the $150-$300 range as it is a mere novelty.


Now these are single game proofs. These are factual sales. Look at the gap between sales.

I am sure I may be missing a few that did not pop up.

Given this information, how can one value this sheet at $2500-$3500?

You can break these down and get the following..

GAME 3 = $3577.12 average (including that mile high anomaly) $4087.50 without it.

Game 4 = I would estimate this game to be worth at least $1300 as I will not attempt to average only 2 numbers with one being $4000 and one being $800.

Game 5 = Let's say $250.

With that low Mile High anomaly included, one could reasonably expect sell the 3 tickets broken down for $5127.12.

If you take out the Mile high ticket, you would be at $5637.50

ALSO. Keep in mind there are no documented sales in 2017 yet and we are definitely in a BULL ticket market right now as is evidence from all ticket sales of all sports and years.

NOW... do we not add anything for this being a high grade complete sheet? does the scarcity add no value?

Ok even if it doesn't (which I disagree with) look at the above numbers. It is simple math.

Value is subjective, however numbers don't lie. $2500 would be taking the lowest sales from each ticket ever.

There it is. I am done, just dislike how people are number blind when it comes to opinions.

I would agree with your assessment if numbers are accurate. Numbers do not lie. Also, people like to discount things they do not own.
That said, I would rather have a game used ticket stub than a full or a proof for the money any day. I am in the minority most likely. Nice pickup!

[David Atkatz]

Originally Posted by Forever Young

That said, I would rather have a game used ticket stub than a full or a proof for the money any day. I am in the minority most likely.

Me, too. Proof tickets, as far as I'm concerned, have nothing at all to do with the game in question. And full tickets weren't there...
But a stub... Ahhhh, a stub...
It was there, in someone's pocket the whole time.
A piece of the event.

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

Originally Posted by David Atkatz

Me, too. Proof tickets, as far as I'm concerned, have nothing at all to do with the game in question. And full tickets weren't there...
But a stub... Ahhhh, a stub...
It was there, in someone's pocket the whole time.
A piece of the event.

+1

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

[T_Hamilton]

Originally Posted by vintagebaseballcardguy

+1

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

as someone who owns a ticket tub from Ruth's called shot, I have to agree... stub over proof 8 days a week!

[conor912]

Originally Posted by David Atkatz

Me, too. Proof tickets, as far as I'm concerned, have nothing at all to do with the game in question. And full tickets weren't there...
But a stub... Ahhhh, a stub...
It was there, in someone's pocket the whole time.
A piece of the event.

Tickets have got to be the only collectible in the world worth more to collectors torn in half than whole.

[Scott Garner]

Originally Posted by conor912

Tickets have got to be the only collectible in the world worth more to collectors torn in half than whole.

Conor,
Although I can definitely see the argument for both sets of reasoning, full tickets to historic events typically do bring much higher sale prices due to their relative scarcity.

It stands to reason that fewer full tickets exist to vintage events since most tickets were used to gain entrance and thus were ripped.
As a collector, I always look to find the full ticket to the event because I find that a full ticket has the complete graphic content that is otherwise lost to time.
That being said, I will also collect the stub since, as David A. previously mentioned, it was in attendance of the actual game.
There are great arguments for both and this is what's great about collecting. Not everyone collects the same thing...

[Dave Grob]

Some thoughts on general pricing data, and these tickets in particular… and this is NOT directed at anyone in particular.

In instances when you have small populations or sample sizes, the relevance of each individual data point (ticket, jersey, card, bat) becomes less relevant/more sensitive. This is not an opinion, but a core component of statistical analysis. With small populations and sample sizes, it is also essential to know these samples in detail; specifically it is even a true sample size, or have some of these items been offered more than once within the same sample. This is key since if collectors are actually seeing the same item often offered more than once, this creates a false read on true rarity. This can lead to lower prices realized since the collector might assume, “Well, if I miss it here, I’ll just get the next one that comes along.” I alluded to this in a previous post on Brooklyn Dodger “Welcome Banners.”

As for the specific data on these proofs as previously offered by Stephen:

GAME 3
October 12 2016 - Game 3 Proof PSA - $3350.05
April 22 2015 - Game 3 Proof PSA - $2250
March 05 2015 - Game 3 Proof PSA - $5000
December 4 2014 - Mile High Game 3 Proof PSA - $1,535.76
December 31 2013 - Game 3 Proof - $5750
GAME 4
December 18 2013 - Game 4 Proof PSA - $801
August 22 2013 - Game 4 Proof PSA - $4000
GAME 5
This game does not trade often, but when it does, it commonly sells in the $150-$300 range as it is a mere novelty.

General Observations
- The highest prices paid/realized are from the oldest examples, not the most recent.

- There is a huge difference in prices between the games, with Game 3 obviously commanding the most money.

- Full sheets are not candidates for grading/encapsulation.

Why these factors may not automatically translate into a much higher price for the sheet as being offered and priced today.

1. The highest prices are oldest. This could suggest that the strongest buyers have already obtained what they were looking for and are likely not interested at all, regardless of price. Use of even the low average of $3,577 for Game 3 as a pricing metric fails to acknowledge that this figure is in fact higher than the price on the two most recent sales.

2. When collecting tickets, there appear to be fairly strong differences and preferences for stubs, full tickets and proofs. It could be that the proof is seen as the least desirable of the three. Here you have to be careful in applying an otherwise macro trend (ticket prices are going up), to a subset of the larger group that may not have same macro-level appeal.

3. The collector interested in a proof, may not be interested in one from Game 4 and or Game 5, and as such, is not willing to pay a premium for what he wants, while absorbing the acquisition of items he does not want.

All of this creates a couple of courses of action.

1. If the goal is strictly to provide the maximum return on investment, separate the tickets and have them graded/encapsulated and then sold individually. This maximizes the possibly demand for the Game 3 ticket and works to satisfy what may be the collector’s preference for graded/encapsulated product.

2. Keep the sheet as is and hold onto it until a buyer is found at a more palatable sales price.

Dave Grob

[steve B]

What sort of value were the dealers quoting? There's a big difference between "I'd be willing to pay X" and "I'd price it at X". I'd probably expect a price given between a dealer asking a question and another answering to be in the "I'd be willing to pay X" category.

No, rarity doesn't always carry a bonus. I really wish it did, as I have a number of collectibles that are really quite rare, but hardly any of them even get to even the level of the single tickets, or comparable but more popular even if more common items. If you entirely disagree, and have loads of extra money lets talk!

By the way, that's proven right in your numbers.

Game three and four and yes, even game 5 tickets should be equally rare. All would have been printed in the same quantities. Games 3 and 4 even had almost the same attendance.
"Proofs" would have also had the same quantity printed, since they came together on a sheet.

And yet, the prices are quite different!
Game 3 had a famous event, and brings more. Game 4 was the final game, so it's popular, and poor game 5 wasn't needed and is worth far less.

Lets check the PSA pop reports to see just how rare the proofs might be. It's a flawed number, but will at least tell us something.
Game 3 proof - 9
Game 3 full - 7
Game 3 stub - 68
Game 3/A full - 3

Game 4 proof -6
Game 4 full - 4
Game 4 stub -60
Game 4/B full - 4

Game 5 proof -2
Game 5 Full - 2

No graded sheets, which leads me to think that PSA won't grade the sheet. There's no reason the sheets of proofs should have been separated, other than to get them slabbed.
I'm not sure if the slabs mean much for ticket collectors, from what I've read here probably a lot less than with cards.

If the dealers only think it's worth maybe $3000, and heritage couldn't be bothered to put it as it's own lot, things are starting to make more sense.
For a dealer to maximize profit. They'd have to split up the sheet and get each ticket graded. The wide difference in prices on the game 4 show just how thin the market is for that one as a proof. So a dealer pays say 3000, splits it up which is risky, pays grading fees, and shipping and then possibly shipping to an auction. Plus commission unless they get a special deal. Grading would be 150-300, depending on how they valued them for different service levels. (Not counting the game 5 which they probably wouldn't send in) So lets say they're all in at 3500 in costs.
Now lest figure a best case , average, and worst.
Best- 5750+ 4000+300 =10050, Jackpot!
Average using your numbers - 4077 + 1300+ 250 = 5627 Not bad. about a 2K payday for all that work and tying up their money for a while. But not bad.
Worst case - 1535 +801+ ? About a $1200 loss, and the game 5 ticket is still taking up space in the display case. And might be for a long time.

Or......They buy it for 3K, split it up, go with roughly average prices, and end up with maybe $1500 profit.
Or......They buy it for 3K, and flip it for $4500 to someone who either wants the sheet, or would split the sheet and keep the game 3 ticket selling the game 4 to cover some of the cost. Same profit, less labor/risk.

None of the last two scenarios would turn up in an internet search, but a big ticket dealer may have done it a handful of times.
---------------------------
A very rough guess on how many "proofs" might be out there. Figure an order from the Cubs for 42,000 tickets. (They ran almost 1000 over the published par capacity of 40,000 so they almost certainly would have bought a few extras. ) The printer needs to make some extra, to cover themselves in case some get damaged in the process. It's not really common, so maybe 1-2% lets round it to 500, figure a few losses in process, test pieces, other general printing goofs, maybe 450? Either they get sent to the Cubs, or were sitting at the printers, either way, most of them probably survived, taken home by people at the printers, or stuck on some supply room shelf at Wrigley. Even if half of them were lost over time I'd say 225 of something qualifies as "not all that rare"


Steve B

[EYECOLLECTVINTAGE]

Originally Posted by steve B

What sort of value were the dealers quoting? There's a big difference between "I'd be willing to pay X" and "I'd price it at X". I'd probably expect a price given between a dealer asking a question and another answering to be in the "I'd be willing to pay X" category.

No, rarity doesn't always carry a bonus. I really wish it did, as I have a number of collectibles that are really quite rare, but hardly any of them even get to even the level of the single tickets, or comparable but more popular even if more common items. If you entirely disagree, and have loads of extra money lets talk!

By the way, that's proven right in your numbers.

Game three and four and yes, even game 5 tickets should be equally rare. All would have been printed in the same quantities. Games 3 and 4 even had almost the same attendance.
"Proofs" would have also had the same quantity printed, since they came together on a sheet.

And yet, the prices are quite different!
Game 3 had a famous event, and brings more. Game 4 was the final game, so it's popular, and poor game 5 wasn't needed and is worth far less.

Lets check the PSA pop reports to see just how rare the proofs might be. It's a flawed number, but will at least tell us something.
Game 3 proof - 9
Game 3 full - 7
Game 3 stub - 68
Game 3/A full - 3

Game 4 proof -6
Game 4 full - 4
Game 4 stub -60
Game 4/B full - 4

Game 5 proof -2
Game 5 Full - 2

No graded sheets, which leads me to think that PSA won't grade the sheet. There's no reason the sheets of proofs should have been separated, other than to get them slabbed.
I'm not sure if the slabs mean much for ticket collectors, from what I've read here probably a lot less than with cards.

If the dealers only think it's worth maybe $3000, and heritage couldn't be bothered to put it as it's own lot, things are starting to make more sense.
For a dealer to maximize profit. They'd have to split up the sheet and get each ticket graded. The wide difference in prices on the game 4 show just how thin the market is for that one as a proof. So a dealer pays say 3000, splits it up which is risky, pays grading fees, and shipping and then possibly shipping to an auction. Plus commission unless they get a special deal. Grading would be 150-300, depending on how they valued them for different service levels. (Not counting the game 5 which they probably wouldn't send in) So lets say they're all in at 3500 in costs.
Now lest figure a best case , average, and worst.
Best- 5750+ 4000+300 =10050, Jackpot!
Average using your numbers - 4077 + 1300+ 250 = 5627 Not bad. about a 2K payday for all that work and tying up their money for a while. But not bad.
Worst case - 1535 +801+ ? About a $1200 loss, and the game 5 ticket is still taking up space in the display case. And might be for a long time.

Or......They buy it for 3K, split it up, go with roughly average prices, and end up with maybe $1500 profit.
Or......They buy it for 3K, and flip it for $4500 to someone who either wants the sheet, or would split the sheet and keep the game 3 ticket selling the game 4 to cover some of the cost. Same profit, less labor/risk.

None of the last two scenarios would turn up in an internet search, but a big ticket dealer may have done it a handful of times.
---------------------------
A very rough guess on how many "proofs" might be out there. Figure an order from the Cubs for 42,000 tickets. (They ran almost 1000 over the published par capacity of 40,000 so they almost certainly would have bought a few extras. ) The printer needs to make some extra, to cover themselves in case some get damaged in the process. It's not really common, so maybe 1-2% lets round it to 500, figure a few losses in process, test pieces, other general printing goofs, maybe 450? Either they get sent to the Cubs, or were sitting at the printers, either way, most of them probably survived, taken home by people at the printers, or stuck on some supply room shelf at Wrigley. Even if half of them were lost over time I'd say 225 of something qualifies as "not all that rare"


Steve B

What sort of value were the dealers quoting?

Dealers were not quoting anything. I am referring to the people whom this guy reached out to along with some other board members whom referred to their scarcity.

No, rarity doesn't always carry a bonus.

I am aware, but Ruth's called shot isn't the same as a scorebook from 1879 with players 99% of casual collectors wouldn't know.

No graded sheets, which leads me to think that PSA won't grade the sheet.

They do not grade sheets ever if they can't find in a T-3 holder

If the dealers only think it's worth maybe $3000, and heritage couldn't be bothered to put it as it's own lot, things are starting to make more sense.

The 2012 ticket market and the 2017 ticket market aren't even close in all honesty so that doesn't make sense.

If no one is buying tickets in 2012 (or paying up for them at least) what incentive does heritage have for making it it's own lot 5 years ago?


For a dealer to maximize profit. They'd have to split up the sheet and get each ticket graded. The wide difference in prices on the game 4 show just how thin the market is for that one as a proof. So a dealer pays say 3000, splits it up which is risky, pays grading fees, and shipping and then possibly shipping to an auction. Plus commission unless they get a special deal. Grading would be 150-300, depending on how they valued them for different service levels. (Not counting the game 5 which they probably wouldn't send in) So lets say they're all in at 3500 in costs.
Now lest figure a best case , average, and worst.
Best- 5750+ 4000+300 =10050, Jackpot!
Average using your numbers - 4077 + 1300+ 250 = 5627 Not bad. about a 2K payday for all that work and tying up their money for a while. But not bad.
Worst case - 1535 +801+ ? About a $1200 loss, and the game 5 ticket is still taking up space in the display case. And might be for a long time.

Or......They buy it for 3K, split it up, go with roughly average prices, and end up with maybe $1500 profit.
Or......They buy it for 3K, and flip it for $4500 to someone who either wants the sheet, or would split the sheet and keep the game 3 ticket selling the game 4 to cover some of the cost. Same profit, less labor/risk.

None of the last two scenarios would turn up in an internet search, but a big ticket dealer may have done it a handful of times.

You missed the point of my entire post I guess. I am not looking to sell to a dealer for resale. I am looking to sell to a collector whom does not have this in his collection and would have to spend over 5000 in order to buy these individually anyways.

[packs]

Cool tickets. No idea what the value is but I'm a little surprised a proof ticket would be valued so highly. I'd rather have a ticket that got a fan into a game. If given the choice, I'd prefer a ticket ripped at the door.

[Dewey]

I'm not sure why you are so worked up over the 2500-3500 valuation. The evaluators are either right and you won't get your asking price, or they will be wrong and you'll make your dough. The market will bear this out. Why not just see where the ride takes you? You agreed to the 4500-7000 range. Maybe you are not as far away as it appears, unless you overpaid.

This thread feels off to me from the get-go. It is as if you have a whale on a hook and you are panicking because he might get away, so you are trying to have a thread justifying your price to then show him. I am probably way off, but it just feels funky. I mean, if we started a thread for every valuation disagreement then we'd have a lot more reading to do. It's as if you don't trust the market and need validation for your price right now.

Steve's post was helpful, I thought. Rather than missing the point, it might point a way forward for you as a dealer if things don't work to your liking in the near term. And good luck with it. A cool item, for sure.

p.s. Stephen, it was not "obvious" to me that you did not mean you were trying to sell the exact same item as the 2012 Heritage piece. I appreciated Dave's clarification. Instead of accepting the helpful correction you made it personal and accused him of trying to make you look bad. That's the bad look for you.

[EYECOLLECTVINTAGE]

I'm not sure why you are so worked up over the 2500-3500 valuation. The evaluators are either right and you won't get your asking price, or they will be wrong and you'll make your dough. The market will bear this out. Why not just see where the ride takes you? You agreed to the 4500-7000 range. Maybe you are not as far away as it appears, unless you overpaid.

I totally agree with you here 100% I do not believe I overpaid however. Maybe I paid stronger than a dealer would pay, but when I see something unique I do not mind paying up a bit.

This thread feels off to me from the get-go. It is as if you have a whale on a hook and you are panicking because he might get away, so you are trying to have a thread justifying your price to then show him. I am probably way off, but it just feels funky. I mean, if we started a thread for every valuation disagreement then we'd have a lot more reading to do. It's as if you don't trust the market and need validation for your price right now.

I have no whale on the hook and anyone that knows me at all would know that isn't my intention from this post. I HAD someone on the hook yesterday which is what I even said in the first post and due to what I feel is a horrendous evaluation I lost it. My original post today was simply to fire of some frustration while hopefully getting some either you are rights or I

Steve's post was helpful, I thought. Rather than missing the point, it might point a way forward for you as a dealer if things don't work to your liking in the near term. And good luck with it. A cool item, for sure.disagrees.

I understood where he was coming from, yet that was not my posts intention. I was referring to collectors not dealers.

p.s. Stephen, it was not "obvious" to me that you did not mean you were trying to sell the exact same item as the 2012 Heritage piece. I appreciated Dave's clarification. Instead of accepting the helpful correction you made it personal and accused him of trying to make you look bad. That's the bad look for you.


So rather than PM me you think the right thing to do is make a picture graph like I'm 4 years old? Honestly, If it's a bad look for me it's a bad look for me, but I'm not the type of person to kiss ass so to speak because someone is someone. If you speak condensing to me (which he did in his first reply) then I'm not gonna thank you for it.

[Snapolit1]

If you are having a hard time valuing it but are convinced someone is trying to short change you, why wouldn't you just give it to one of the great auction houses that advertise here and let the market determine it's value? Problem solved. If the guy your talking to wants it bad enough he will out pay everyone else for it.

[David Atkatz]

Originally Posted by EYECOLLECTVINTAGE

If you speak condensing to me (which he did in his first reply) then I'm not gonna thank you for it.

It's "condescending." (Or am I being condensing?)