Calling ticket experts! - holy grail find?

[Forever Young]

Originally Posted by EYECOLLECTVINTAGE

Ok so here are some thoughts I want to share regarding these tickets and maybe I am opening up a can of worms, but I am confident in my assessment so here it goes.

I had SGC look at this sheet this past weekend and they are good 1000%.

As far as value, I had someone at the Hofstra show interested in these.

He asked what I wanted and I told him what I paid and said I obviously think they are worth more than that. He then tells me he would think these are worth anywhere from 4500-7000 which I agreed with, however he wanted to call a few people.

He called 3 top ticket people in the industry (some whom are probably members here) and they mostly agreed that these are 2500-3500 at most and not very uncommon.

Here is what I am having some trouble grasping....

1. So this guy is a huge long time Ruth collector whom has a large collection from signed balls to gamer bats. He has never seen this before.

Everyone I have shown this to (dealers included) have never seen this before, but somehow it's not an uncommon item?

I am having a lot of trouble with this evaluation both in regards to scarcity and value.

Here is why...

I searched worthpoint, google and many other sites and came up with nothing.

It wasn't until Dave shared that 2012 heritage link where is was sold as part of a lot that I even knew another existed.

These are not common. There are barely even many single ticket proof documented sales or in the population report for PSA (I know that the Pop report doesn't mean as much), BUT PSA has only graded 9 Game 3 Proofs and 6 Game 4 Proofs and at the same time 7 Full Game 3 Tickets and 4 Game 4 Tickets.

These seem almost equally scarce with the information given.

I did a worthpoint and google search going back to 2013 (obviously the market has rocketed since then) and here is what I found.

GAME 3

October 12 2016 - Game 3 Proof PSA - $3350.05
April 22 2015 - Game 3 Proof PSA - $2250
March 05 2015 - Game 3 Proof PSA - $5000
December 4 2014 - Mile High Game 3 Proof PSA - $1,535.76
December 31 2013 - Game 3 Proof - $5750


GAME 4

December 18 2013 - Game 4 Proof PSA - $801
August 22 2013 - Game 4 Proof PSA - $4000


GAME 5
​​​​​​​
This game does not trade often, but when it does, it commonly sells in the $150-$300 range as it is a mere novelty.


Now these are single game proofs. These are factual sales. Look at the gap between sales.

I am sure I may be missing a few that did not pop up.

Given this information, how can one value this sheet at $2500-$3500?

You can break these down and get the following..

GAME 3 = $3577.12 average (including that mile high anomaly) $4087.50 without it.

Game 4 = I would estimate this game to be worth at least $1300 as I will not attempt to average only 2 numbers with one being $4000 and one being $800.

Game 5 = Let's say $250.

With that low Mile High anomaly included, one could reasonably expect sell the 3 tickets broken down for $5127.12.

If you take out the Mile high ticket, you would be at $5637.50

ALSO. Keep in mind there are no documented sales in 2017 yet and we are definitely in a BULL ticket market right now as is evidence from all ticket sales of all sports and years.

NOW... do we not add anything for this being a high grade complete sheet? does the scarcity add no value?

Ok even if it doesn't (which I disagree with) look at the above numbers. It is simple math.

Value is subjective, however numbers don't lie. $2500 would be taking the lowest sales from each ticket ever.

There it is. I am done, just dislike how people are number blind when it comes to opinions.

I would agree with your assessment if numbers are accurate. Numbers do not lie. Also, people like to discount things they do not own.
That said, I would rather have a game used ticket stub than a full or a proof for the money any day. I am in the minority most likely. Nice pickup!

[David Atkatz]

Originally Posted by Forever Young

That said, I would rather have a game used ticket stub than a full or a proof for the money any day. I am in the minority most likely.

Me, too. Proof tickets, as far as I'm concerned, have nothing at all to do with the game in question. And full tickets weren't there...
But a stub... Ahhhh, a stub...
It was there, in someone's pocket the whole time.
A piece of the event.

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

Originally Posted by David Atkatz

Me, too. Proof tickets, as far as I'm concerned, have nothing at all to do with the game in question. And full tickets weren't there...
But a stub... Ahhhh, a stub...
It was there, in someone's pocket the whole time.
A piece of the event.

+1

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

[T_Hamilton]

Originally Posted by vintagebaseballcardguy

+1

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

as someone who owns a ticket tub from Ruth's called shot, I have to agree... stub over proof 8 days a week!

[conor912]

Originally Posted by David Atkatz

Me, too. Proof tickets, as far as I'm concerned, have nothing at all to do with the game in question. And full tickets weren't there...
But a stub... Ahhhh, a stub...
It was there, in someone's pocket the whole time.
A piece of the event.

Tickets have got to be the only collectible in the world worth more to collectors torn in half than whole.

[Scott Garner]

Originally Posted by conor912

Tickets have got to be the only collectible in the world worth more to collectors torn in half than whole.

Conor,
Although I can definitely see the argument for both sets of reasoning, full tickets to historic events typically do bring much higher sale prices due to their relative scarcity.

It stands to reason that fewer full tickets exist to vintage events since most tickets were used to gain entrance and thus were ripped.
As a collector, I always look to find the full ticket to the event because I find that a full ticket has the complete graphic content that is otherwise lost to time.
That being said, I will also collect the stub since, as David A. previously mentioned, it was in attendance of the actual game.
There are great arguments for both and this is what's great about collecting. Not everyone collects the same thing...

[Dave Grob]

Some thoughts on general pricing data, and these tickets in particular… and this is NOT directed at anyone in particular.

In instances when you have small populations or sample sizes, the relevance of each individual data point (ticket, jersey, card, bat) becomes less relevant/more sensitive. This is not an opinion, but a core component of statistical analysis. With small populations and sample sizes, it is also essential to know these samples in detail; specifically it is even a true sample size, or have some of these items been offered more than once within the same sample. This is key since if collectors are actually seeing the same item often offered more than once, this creates a false read on true rarity. This can lead to lower prices realized since the collector might assume, “Well, if I miss it here, I’ll just get the next one that comes along.” I alluded to this in a previous post on Brooklyn Dodger “Welcome Banners.”

As for the specific data on these proofs as previously offered by Stephen:

GAME 3
October 12 2016 - Game 3 Proof PSA - $3350.05
April 22 2015 - Game 3 Proof PSA - $2250
March 05 2015 - Game 3 Proof PSA - $5000
December 4 2014 - Mile High Game 3 Proof PSA - $1,535.76
December 31 2013 - Game 3 Proof - $5750
GAME 4
December 18 2013 - Game 4 Proof PSA - $801
August 22 2013 - Game 4 Proof PSA - $4000
GAME 5
This game does not trade often, but when it does, it commonly sells in the $150-$300 range as it is a mere novelty.

General Observations
- The highest prices paid/realized are from the oldest examples, not the most recent.

- There is a huge difference in prices between the games, with Game 3 obviously commanding the most money.

- Full sheets are not candidates for grading/encapsulation.

Why these factors may not automatically translate into a much higher price for the sheet as being offered and priced today.

1. The highest prices are oldest. This could suggest that the strongest buyers have already obtained what they were looking for and are likely not interested at all, regardless of price. Use of even the low average of $3,577 for Game 3 as a pricing metric fails to acknowledge that this figure is in fact higher than the price on the two most recent sales.

2. When collecting tickets, there appear to be fairly strong differences and preferences for stubs, full tickets and proofs. It could be that the proof is seen as the least desirable of the three. Here you have to be careful in applying an otherwise macro trend (ticket prices are going up), to a subset of the larger group that may not have same macro-level appeal.

3. The collector interested in a proof, may not be interested in one from Game 4 and or Game 5, and as such, is not willing to pay a premium for what he wants, while absorbing the acquisition of items he does not want.

All of this creates a couple of courses of action.

1. If the goal is strictly to provide the maximum return on investment, separate the tickets and have them graded/encapsulated and then sold individually. This maximizes the possibly demand for the Game 3 ticket and works to satisfy what may be the collector’s preference for graded/encapsulated product.

2. Keep the sheet as is and hold onto it until a buyer is found at a more palatable sales price.

Dave Grob

[EYECOLLECTVINTAGE]

Originally Posted by Dave Grob

Some thoughts on general pricing data, and these tickets in particular… and this is NOT directed at anyone in particular.

In instances when you have small populations or sample sizes, the relevance of each individual data point (ticket, jersey, card, bat) becomes less relevant/more sensitive. This is not an opinion, but a core component of statistical analysis. With small populations and sample sizes, it is also essential to know these samples in detail; specifically it is even a true sample size, or have some of these items been offered more than once within the same sample. This is key since if collectors are actually seeing the same item often offered more than once, this creates a false read on true rarity. This can lead to lower prices realized since the collector might assume, “Well, if I miss it here, I’ll just get the next one that comes along.” I alluded to this in a previous post on Brooklyn Dodger “Welcome Banners.”

As for the specific data on these proofs as previously offered by Stephen:

GAME 3
October 12 2016 - Game 3 Proof PSA - $3350.05
April 22 2015 - Game 3 Proof PSA - $2250
March 05 2015 - Game 3 Proof PSA - $5000
December 4 2014 - Mile High Game 3 Proof PSA - $1,535.76
December 31 2013 - Game 3 Proof - $5750
GAME 4
December 18 2013 - Game 4 Proof PSA - $801
August 22 2013 - Game 4 Proof PSA - $4000
GAME 5
This game does not trade often, but when it does, it commonly sells in the $150-$300 range as it is a mere novelty.

General Observations
- The highest prices paid/realized are from the oldest examples, not the most recent.

- There is a huge difference in prices between the games, with Game 3 obviously commanding the most money.

- Full sheets are not candidates for grading/encapsulation.

Why these factors may not automatically translate into a much higher price for the sheet as being offered and priced today.

1. The highest prices are oldest. This could suggest that the strongest buyers have already obtained what they were looking for and are likely not interested at all, regardless of price. Use of even the low average of $3,577 for Game 3 as a pricing metric fails to acknowledge that this figure is in fact higher than the price on the two most recent sales.

2. When collecting tickets, there appear to be fairly strong differences and preferences for stubs, full tickets and proofs. It could be that the proof is seen as the least desirable of the three. Here you have to be careful in applying an otherwise macro trend (ticket prices are going up), to a subset of the larger group that may not have same macro-level appeal.

3. The collector interested in a proof, may not be interested in one from Game 4 and or Game 5, and as such, is not willing to pay a premium for what he wants, while absorbing the acquisition of items he does not want.

All of this creates a couple of courses of action.

1. If the goal is strictly to provide the maximum return on investment, separate the tickets and have them graded/encapsulated and then sold individually. This maximizes the possibly demand for the Game 3 ticket and works to satisfy what may be the collector’s preference for graded/encapsulated product.

2. Keep the sheet as is and hold onto it until a buyer is found at a more palatable sales price.

Dave Grob

Dave,

THANK YOU! now that is informative and very very helpful. It's good when you take into account things as such and yes you make great points. I agree with a lot of what you are saying if not all of it.

My only thing is, I do not think these pop up often. Aside from your Heritage example which was included in a lot, were you able to find any other sheets offered for sale from this series?

Thanks again for this post. It opens up a real discussion.

[packs]

What would the ticket grail be? I've got to think Lou Gehrig's debut would be a grail.