T206 Who should be a HOFer that isn't ???

[rats60]

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

we have more data than you might think. Dahlen is 5th all time in SS fWAR, he is 7th all time in fangraph's DEF stat at SS (which is cumulative and is Def = Fielding Runs Above Average + positional adjustment) he is pretty obviously one of the greatest SS's of all time.

Pie Traynor played 13 full seasons. During those seasons he led the league in put outs 7 times, 2nd 3, 3rd 1. In assists 3 times, 2nd 4 times, 3rd 2 times. In DP 4 times, 2nd 2 times and 3rd 1 time. He was considered the greatest defensive 3rd baseman of the preWW2 era by those who saw him play. He had tremendous range often cutting in front of his shortstop to make plays. His defense was so highly regarded that he was voted the greatest 3rd baseman of all time in 1969 for the 100th anniversary of pro baseball. All of his great defense is only worth 2 WAR. Obviously the data we have is seriously lacking and can't be relied upon to properly judge a player's defensive ability.

[Topps206]

Originally Posted by rats60

Pie Traynor played 13 full seasons. During those seasons he led the league in put outs 7 times, 2nd 3, 3rd 1. In assists 3 times, 2nd 4 times, 3rd 2 times. In DP 4 times, 2nd 2 times and 3rd 1 time. He was considered the greatest defensive 3rd baseman of the preWW2 era by those who saw him play. He had tremendous range often cutting in front of his shortstop to make plays. His defense was so highly regarded that he was voted the greatest 3rd baseman of all time in 1969 for the 100th anniversary of pro baseball. All of his great defense is only worth 2 WAR. Obviously the data we have is seriously lacking and can't be relied upon to properly judge a player's defensive ability.

Yet I pointed out to you how many times Dahlen led things in different defensive categories or the many times he was near the top and you want to invalidate his defensive WAR.

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by rats60

Pie Traynor played 13 full seasons. During those seasons he led the league in put outs 7 times, 2nd 3, 3rd 1. In assists 3 times, 2nd 4 times, 3rd 2 times. In DP 4 times, 2nd 2 times and 3rd 1 time. He was considered the greatest defensive 3rd baseman of the preWW2 era by those who saw him play. He had tremendous range often cutting in front of his shortstop to make plays. His defense was so highly regarded that he was voted the greatest 3rd baseman of all time in 1969 for the 100th anniversary of pro baseball. All of his great defense is only worth 2 WAR. Obviously the data we have is seriously lacking and can't be relied upon to properly judge a player's defensive ability.

or perhaps the data confirms what we already know: the eye test is seriously damaged by confirmation bias.

If the same standard is applied equally to all players, even if the methodology is not perfect (and with defense it probably never will be perfect) at least the ratio of performance relative to each other is accurate enough for comparison. And will always be a better gauge than the confirmation bias ridden eye test.

Pie Traynor grades out as the 209th best fielding 3b of all time. Now, that may not be perfectly accurate, but the data isn't so awful that it is somehow screwing Traynor out of 200 spots. You can either hand wave away the data, or you have to come to the more logical conclusion; the people using inferior statistics and the eye test were wrong.


P.S. you must remember too that defense is weighted by difficulty of position SS, CF, 2b, C get the most extra weighting, DH the biggest subtraction. a really excellent 3b will generally be an avg SS whereas an avg SS would generally be an elite 3b (but it would be a waste to put them there)

[bravos4evr]

To expand on my above post.


New metrics are not biased against old players. FWAR tells us Babe was the best player of all time in terms of overall production. It says he and Ted are back to back as hitters. It tells us Ozzie Smith gathered the most value at SS on defense. It shows us that the 4 pitchers to provide the most production over the course of their careers are Clemens, Cy Young, Walter Johnson and Greg Maddux.

Here is the Fangraphs DEF leaders ALL TIME at each position (excluding P ) :

C- Pudge Rodriguez

1b- Hughie Jennings

2b-Frankie Frisch

SS- Ozzie Smith

3b- Brooks Robbinson

LF-Willie Wilson

CF- Andruw Jones

RF-Jesse Barfield


now you might quibble with this list a little bit, but there's no player listed that wasn't considered the best of their era with the glove at their position. (and the spread of eras seems to show that the bias isn't as bad as one might think)

[packs]

That list is way off base if you ask me. Hughie Jennings only played 331 games at first base. How can he be the best fielding first baseman of all time?

[Topps206]

Bill Dahlen Top 10 Similarlity Scores

#1 George Davis - HOF
#2 Bid McPhee - HOF
#3 Herman Long
#4 Bobby Wallace - HOF
#5 Omar Vizquel
#6 Luke Appling - HOF
#7 Luis Aparicio - HOF
#8 Dave Concepcion
#9 Ozzie Smith - HOF
#10 Frankie Frisch - HOF

Translation - Someone is greatly missing from his rightful spot in Cooperstown.

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by Topps206

Bill Dahlen Top 10 Similarlity Scores

#1 George Davis - HOF
#2 Bid McPhee - HOF
#3 Herman Long
#4 Bobby Wallace - HOF
#5 Omar Vizquel
#6 Luke Appling - HOF
#7 Luis Aparicio - HOF
#8 Dave Concepcion
#9 Ozzie Smith - HOF
#10 Frankie Frisch - HOF

Translation - Someone is greatly missing from his rightful spot in Cooperstown.

the only other player in the top 5 at their position all time (with no PED attachment) who isn't in the HOF is probably Joe Torre (and admittedly, he played a lot of his career outside of C so that might not even apply)

Let's see, using fWAR:
C- Bench , Carter, Rodriguez, Fisk,Berra (I was wrong, Torre is 7th)

1b-Musial, Gehrig, Foxx, Anson, Pujols (Pujols still active, but will be in)

SS- Wagner, A-Rod, Ripken,Davis , Dahlen (arod and dahlen not in)

2b- Hornsby, Collins, Lajoie,Morgan, Gehringer (all in)

3b- Schmidt, Matthews, Boggs, Brett, Chipper (Chipper eligible in 2018)

RF- Ruth, Aaron, Ott, F. Robinson, Kaline (all in)

CF- Mays, Cobb, Speaker, Mantle, Dimaggio (nuff said)

LF- Bonds, Williams, Henderson,Yaz,Ed Delehanty (all in but Bonds cuz roids)


so yeah, the only non PED impacted player in the top 5 at their position who hasn't gone in is Dahlen.

[Topps206]

Unlike basketball, you can't be inducted twice. Torre has a worthy case as a player alone, but he's in. That's all that matters.

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by packs

That list is way off base if you ask me. Hughie Jennings only played 331 games at first base. How can he be the best fielding first baseman of all time?

you logical fallacy is : CHERRY PICKING


probably because he was good enough to play SS and 2b too (which very few 1b in the history of baseball could do)

but if you want me to limit it to guys with 1000 games or more at 1b, you get Cap Anson #1 for first baseman on defense.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

or perhaps the data confirms what we already know: the eye test is seriously damaged by confirmation bias.

If the same standard is applied equally to all players, even if the methodology is not perfect (and with defense it probably never will be perfect) at least the ratio of performance relative to each other is accurate enough for comparison. And will always be a better gauge than the confirmation bias ridden eye test.

Pie Traynor grades out as the 209th best fielding 3b of all time. Now, that may not be perfectly accurate, but the data isn't so awful that it is somehow screwing Traynor out of 200 spots. You can either hand wave away the data, or you have to come to the more logical conclusion; the people using inferior statistics and the eye test were wrong.


P.S. you must remember too that defense is weighted by difficulty of position SS, CF, 2b, C get the most extra weighting, DH the biggest subtraction. a really excellent 3b will generally be an avg SS whereas an avg SS would generally be an elite 3b (but it would be a waste to put them there)

Or the model, which is biased, is completely wrong. You have done nothing but hand wave. There is nothing logical about any of your posts. You just want to hand wave away what people have seen. However, current defensive metrics are partially based on...the eye test. We now observe where balls are hit or for older players try to recreate that data, which is not available for Dahlen.

If you have a player who has poor range but gets a lot of balls hit right to him, he is not as good of a player who has to use his range to get to the same number of balls. Or another way to put it, Derek Jeter has led the league in assists and put outs, but we have enough observable data to know that he is not a good defensive player. I will trust those that saw Dahlen play that say he wasn't a HOFer and not a top defensive SS. I trust the people who saw Pie Traynor play and consider him the greatest 3B up to 1969. If you want argue otherwise, present new facts or data. If you are going to be lazy and just cite WAR, there is no further need for discussion.

[packs]

I wasn't cherry picking your list. Was no one else surprised to see Hughie Jennings' name at first base? A guy not known for playing first base? Numbers aren't always the whole story. He played the equivalent of just over 2 seasons at the position but he is rated as the best ever. I don't think so.

[Topps206]

Originally Posted by rats60

Or the model, which is biased, is completely wrong. You have done nothing but hand wave. There is nothing logical about any of your posts. You just want to hand wave away what people have seen. However, current defensive metrics are partially based on...the eye test. We now observe where balls are hit or for older players try to recreate that data, which is not available for Dahlen.

If you have a player who has poor range but gets a lot of balls hit right to him, he is not as good of a player who has to use his range to get to the same number of balls. Or another way to put it, Derek Jeter has led the league in assists and put outs, but we have enough observable data to know that he is not a good defensive player. I will trust those that saw Dahlen play that say he wasn't a HOFer and not a top defensive SS. I trust the people who saw Pie Traynor play and consider him the greatest 3B up to 1969. If you want argue otherwise, present new facts or data. If you are going to be lazy and just cite WAR, there is no further need for discussion.

You trust those who saw Dahlen play that didnt think of him as a Hall of Famer. Yet they didn't see Sherry Magee as one either. You support Magee, I support both, but how is your logic applicable to Dahlen but apparently not applicable to Magee?

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Topps206

You trust those who saw Dahlen play that didnt think of him as a Hall of Famer. Yet they didn't see Sherry Magee as one either. You support Magee, I support both, but how is your logic applicable to Dahlen but apparently not applicable to Magee?

I already posted my reasoning. I am fine with neither being in and saying Kelley and Wheat or Tinker and Wallace don't belong. I think we can agree that there are players in the HOF that don't belong. So, player A being in doesn't necessarily mean player B should.

[Scocs]

I personally despise arguments like this because everyone ALWAYS overlooks the great Negro Leaguers of the past . It's like they get shafted twice: once when they were alive and again when they're dead....

[Topps206]

Originally Posted by rats60

I already posted my reasoning. I am fine with neither being in and saying Kelley and Wheat or Tinker and Wallace don't belong. I think we can agree that there are players in the HOF that don't belong. So, player A being in doesn't necessarily mean player B should.

That's true, but I've argued ad nauseam for these players and everything I've seen suggests they're amongst the best ever at their respected position.

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by rats60

Or the model, which is biased, is completely wrong. You have done nothing but hand wave. There is nothing logical about any of your posts. You just want to hand wave away what people have seen. However, current defensive metrics are partially based on...the eye test. We now observe where balls are hit or for older players try to recreate that data, which is not available for Dahlen.

If you have a player who has poor range but gets a lot of balls hit right to him, he is not as good of a player who has to use his range to get to the same number of balls. Or another way to put it, Derek Jeter has led the league in assists and put outs, but we have enough observable data to know that he is not a good defensive player. I will trust those that saw Dahlen play that say he wasn't a HOFer and not a top defensive SS. I trust the people who saw Pie Traynor play and consider him the greatest 3B up to 1969. If you want argue otherwise, present new facts or data. If you are going to be lazy and just cite WAR, there is no further need for discussion.

ummm...no

this kind of argument against science is why we have anti-vaxxers, acupuncture and all sorts of other nonsense out there parading around like it has evidence behind it. an opinion has zero weight next to factual data. zero... nothing confirmation bias removes the eye test from any sort of meritorious consideration.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by bravos4evr

ummm...no

this kind of argument against science is why we have anti-vaxxers, acupuncture and all sorts of other nonsense out there parading around like it has evidence behind it. an opinion has zero weight next to factual data. zero... nothing confirmation bias removes the eye test from any sort of meritorious consideration.

So you are claiming that science doesn't use observation? Lol.

[Paul S]

.

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by rats60

So you are claiming that science doesn't use observation? Lol.

science uses observation, but not opinion. there is no artistic merit in analyzing data.

science- player A has accumulated 128 defensive runs over his career


eye test- player A was below/above avg in the 15 games I saw him in

[CMIZ5290]

Nick- Please go away, this is ridiculous......