Kris Bryant overrated?... too soon for they hype?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Your sophistication with the numbers is appreciated but it seems meaningless to me to say anything at all about someone's season after 6 games. He could have one good game tonight and the numbers would look dramatically different.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Your sophistication with the numbers is appreciated but it seems meaningless to me to say anything at all about someone's season after 6 games. He could have one good game tonight and the numbers would look dramatically different.

Oh I know. I almost didn't post it because I knew that could be the argument. I am not saying that this season is going to be all lost and this is proof. My point was only that if his BABIP stays in the "normal" area as it has in the past 7 games, yet he doesn't improve his K% than this is the type of stats you will see from him more than not.

I believe he will be hitting home runs but I really don't see his future being any more productive than Adam Dunn's. Adam Dunn's 2010 season may be a comparable to the best we can expect from Bryant from here on out. That wasn't a horrible season, but it benefited from a .329 BABIP. That isn't a bad number and is manageable for a career, but highly unlikely for a home run hitter.

[packs]

It doesn't matter how good you are, no one can survive in the league or experience prolonged success striking out more times than they get a hit.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

It doesn't matter how good you are, no one can survive in the league or experience prolonged success striking out more times than they get a hit.

Reggie Jackson had more strikeouts than hits.

[packs]

If you aspire to be Reggie Jackson, best of luck to you, Kris. He wasn't exactly the second coming of anything.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Jim Thome too.

[packs]

Would you drop $500 on a signed Thome or Reggie Jackson rookie card?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

If you aspire to be Reggie Jackson, best of luck to you, Kris. He wasn't exactly the second coming of anything.

But he does disprove your statement about survival and prolonged success.

[chaddurbin]

i'm not a bryant guy at all, tbh i kind of don't like him...but comparing him to dunn is ludicrous. in that screengrab between bryant and dunn there's one thing that should totally stand out to differentiate the two...dunn never put up a WAR season ever that compared to bryant's rookie year! the argument pretty much stops there.

and yes extreme small sample size bias. he may not be harper or trout, but he'll be fine. the pitchers make adjustments, and it seems like bryant is already changing his approach. chicago's front office have very smart people working who are in-tuned with advanced metrics that even we don't know about and probably have built various models pertaining to bryant's career. he's in good hands.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by chaddurbin

in that screengrab between bryant and dunn there's one thing that should totally stand out to differentiate the two...dunn never put up a WAR season ever that compared to bryant's rookie year! the argument pretty much stops there.

You obviously are missing the point of the posts. The WAR is a number based on the numbers that were put up against certain opponents based in his comparables. Yet if he got "lucky" with an upper cut swing allowing balls to drop in, as I have been hypothesizing, than I am stating we are going to see similar results to Dunn's in the future.

He has been working on leveling out his swing and if he can find comfort in this new swing (as he has the last couple of days) then he will be fine. He has been striking out less and walking more this season. Now it is going to be about ball placement. He definitely is showing improvement, now we just have to see if he can hold it.

My point of this thread was not if he had a good rookie season, but that I think there were red flags that people seemed to be ignoring while investing in his cards and hyping his talents.