2016 Hall of Fame Choices

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

4 AS teams. Never above 4th in MVP and only two top 10s. Didn't reach 2000 hits. Baseball reference numbers:

Gray Ink Batting - 60 (426), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 88 (202), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 39 (175), Average HOFer ≈ 50

JAWS Center Field (14th), 60.3 career WAR/42.5 7yr-peak WAR/51.4 JAWS
Average HOF CF (out of 18) = 70.4 career WAR/44.0 7yr-peak WAR/57.2 JAWS

In a word, no. In two words, no way.

Peter,

Are you so sure?

Take a look at JAWS using Fangraphs WAR instead of the BR WAR that you used. There are four HOFers at the CF position who are so far above the rest that they skew any "averages" as a result. Their career WAR numbers are so high that do you know whose career WAR is only a very small amount "above average" for a HOFer?

Ken Griffey Jr.

If you take Mays, Mantle, Cobb and Speaker out of the equation, take a look at where Edmonds rates against HOF CF in career WAR per Fangraphs:

DiMaggio 83.1
Griffey Jr 77.7
Hamilton (Billy) 70.3
Edmonds 64.5
Snider 63.5
Carey 60.1
Dawson 59.5
Ashburn 57.4
Doby 51.1
Roush 49.6
Duffy 48.3
Averill 47.9
Puckett 44.9
Wilson 42.1
Combs 41.3

Those are the OF used in the JAWS calculation on BR (plus Griffeyband Edmonds).

How about peak 7 year WAR without Cobb or Mantle or Mays or Speaker factored in?

DiMaggio 52.5
Griffey 51.1
Snider 47.5
Edmonds 45.4
Hamilton 45.2
Ashburn 40.8
Doby 39.8
Dawson 38.4
Wilson 38.4
Averill 37.3
Duffy 35.8
Carey 34.4
Puckett 33.9
Combs 33.3
Roush 32.7

Yet Edmonds is going to get less than 5% of the vote and not be eligible again? Seriously?

Tom C

[Peter_Spaeth]

Similarity ScoresExplanation of Similarity Scores


Similar Batters
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Compare Stats to Similars
1.Lance Berkman (910)
2.Ellis Burks (908)
3.Duke Snider (902) *
4.Shawn Green (886)
5.Dale Murphy (877)
6.Fred Lynn (877)
7.Larry Walker (873)
8.Alfonso Soriano (871)
9.Andruw Jones (871)
10.Moises Alou (870)
* - Signifies Hall of Famer

Most Similar by Ages
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Hold mouse over #'s to see names
25.Ivan Calderon (980) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
26.Bobby Higginson (975) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
27.Bobby Higginson (966) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
28.Larry Doby (962) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
29.Corey Hart (951) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
30.J.D. Drew (965) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
31.Jason Bay (944) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
32.Tim Salmon (927) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
33.Tim Salmon (932) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
34.Tim Salmon (921) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
35.Tim Salmon (913) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
36.Lance Berkman (914) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
37.Lance Berkman (925) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
38.Ellis Burks (903) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
40.Jason Giambi (879) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

[btcarfagno]

Similarity scores are offense only and not position specific.

Tom C

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

Peter,

Are you so sure?

Take a look at JAWS using Fangraphs WAR instead of the BR WAR that you used. There are four HOFers at the CF position who are so far above the rest that they skew any "averages" as a result. Their career WAR numbers are so high that do you know whose career WAR is only a very small amount "above average" for a HOFer?

Ken Griffey Jr.

If you take Mays, Mantle, Cobb and Speaker out of the equation, take a look at where Edmonds rates against HOF CF in career WAR per Fangraphs:

DiMaggio 83.1
Griffey Jr 77.7
Hamilton (Billy) 70.3
Edmonds 64.5
Snider 63.5
Carey 60.1
Dawson 59.5
Ashburn 57.4
Doby 51.1
Roush 49.6
Duffy 48.3
Averill 47.9
Puckett 44.9
Wilson 42.1
Combs 41.3

Those are the OF used in the JAWS calculation on BR (plus Griffeyband Edmonds).

How about peak 7 year WAR without Cobb or Mantle or Mays or Speaker factored in?

DiMaggio 52.5
Griffey 51.1
Snider 47.5
Edmonds 45.4
Hamilton 45.2
Ashburn 40.8
Doby 39.8
Dawson 38.4
Wilson 38.4
Averill 37.3
Duffy 35.8
Carey 34.4
Puckett 33.9
Combs 33.3
Roush 32.7

Yet Edmonds is going to get less than 5% of the vote and not be eligible again? Seriously?

Tom C

All well and good, but he is a .284 hitter with 1900 hits. Who never led the league in a single category. I'm not beating the drum on this one.

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

All well and good, but he is a .284 hitter with 1900 hits. I'm not beating the drum on this one.

I'm not saying he is a HOFer...but one and done? He's getting the Ted Simmons treatment?

Tom C

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

I'm not saying he is a HOFer...but one and done? He's getting the Ted Simmons treatment?

Tom C

Fair enough, he was a very good player. Simmons was closer to a HOFer though I think.

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Fair enough, he was a very good player. Simmons was closer to a HOFer though I think.

I would agree. But both are going to be one time only players on the ballot it looks like.

I just don't get it.

Tom C

[Huck]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

I would agree. But both are going to be one time only players on the ballot it looks like.

I just don't get it.

Tom C

Defense only gets one into the hall of fame if by chance ones career happens to include a walk off home run in the seventh game of the World Series.

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by biohazard

Defense only gets one into the hall of fame if by chance ones career happens to include a walk off home run in the seventh game of the World Series.

Very true. And apparently legendary defense plus 393 career home runs and an OPS+ of 132 gets you less than 5% of the vote.

Bah.

Tom C

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by biohazard

Defense only gets one into the hall of fame if by chance ones career happens to include a walk off home run in the seventh game of the World Series.

I don't know, I think being the very best defender to ever play ones position makes for a pretty compelling case all by itself.

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

All well and good, but he is a .284 hitter with 1900 hits. Who never led the league in a single category. I'm not beating the drum on this one.

Also, are we really going with batting average as a top factor for HOF consideration? This isn't 1925 anymore.

Tom C