2016 Hall of Fame Choices

[billyb]

I just cannot believe Trammell not getting any respect from anyone. The guys offensive numbers are on the bubble for his position, for HOF enshrinement, but when you add in his defensive achievements, he should walk into the Hall of Fame. Four gold gloves, and three silver sluggers awards, 7 times an all star, I believe 7 times getting votes as League MVP, In his career, he only struck out 24 more times then he walked. Career on base percentage of 352 for a shortstop. His one and only time he played in the World Series and he won the MVP. His WAR number just behind Jeter. And not one consideration, WOW. I am surprised.

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by billyb

I just cannot believe Trammell not getting any respect from anyone. The guys offensive numbers are on the bubble for his position, for HOF enshrinement, but when you add in his defensive achievements, he should walk into the Hall of Fame. Four gold gloves, and three silver sluggers awards, 7 times an all star, I believe 7 times getting votes as League MVP, In his career, he only struck out 24 more times then he walked. Career on base percentage of 352 for a shortstop. His one and only time he played in the World Series and he won the MVP. His WAR number just behind Jeter. And not one consideration, WOW. I am surprised.

Tough to disagree with this. I didn't realize that this is his final year on the ballot. I may have added him to my list with that being the case.

I am very surprised that Jim Edmonds may not even get 5% of the vote. 8 Gold Glove awards. 393 career homers. 1191 RBI and 1251 Runs. .284 batting average. .376 OBP. 132 OPS+ for a great defensive center fielder. Lots of post season experience including 13 homers and .274 batting average. Maybe not quite a HOFer, but he certainly does not deserve to get the Ted Simmons treatment either.

Tom C

[packs]

Very surprised at the total lack of love for Fred McGriff. As far as I know there's never been a word spoken of him juicing and he's only 7 homers away from 500. 284 career average is pretty top flight for a slugger. I guess playing during the cartoonish steroid era is what's holding him back, but come on. The guy could hit with the best of them.

RE: Piazza, even with his early success on the public ballots he still needs 7 out of every 10 vote to get in. That's going to be tough and if he doesn't get in this year, I don't think he ever gets in. This is his weakest competition in terms of competing for votes.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Griffey, period. Piazza doesn't feel quite like an all-time great to me, and that's where I draw the line. Although you could certainly make a case for him statistically.

[Louieman]

While I don't think some of these guys would get voted in...

Griffey
Bonds
McGriff
Morris
Bagwell

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

Very surprised at the total lack of love for Fred McGriff. As far as I know there's never been a word spoken of him juicing and he's only 7 homers away from 500. 284 career average is pretty top flight for a slugger. I guess playing during the cartoonish steroid era is what's holding him back, but come on. The guy could hit with the best of them.

RE: Piazza, even with his early success on the public ballots he still needs 7 out of every 10 vote to get in. That's going to be tough and if he doesn't get in this year, I don't think he ever gets in. This is his weakest competition in terms of competing for votes.

He bounced around with a lot of teams, and never had a really monster year I don't think. No higher than 4th in MVP voting, only led the league in anything twice. All that hurts him. But if Rice, Cepeda, and Dawson are in, it's hard to say why them and not him.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He bounced around with a lot of teams, and never had a really monster year I don't think. No higher than 4th in MVP voting, only led the league in anything twice. All that hurts him. But if Rice, Cepeda, and Dawson are in, it's hard to say why them and not him.

I think you're right about McGriff. But he did hit 30 homers 10 times and drove in 100 runs 8 times. None of that seems as big as it should in the context of his inflated era, but hitters like him are rare. Especially since he had the ability to hit for average (for a slugger) too.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by packs

I think you're right about McGriff. But he did hit 30 homers 10 times and drove in 100 runs 8 times. None of that seems as big as it should in the context of his inflated era, but hitters like him are rare. Especially since he had the ability to hit for average (for a slugger) too.

McGriff was never seen as an elite player during his career. Never remotely close to an MVP (4th once). Never hit 40 HRs. Never reached 110 RBI in a season. Maybe he reaches those numbers in 1994 but we'll never know. Point being, he was never seen as a tip-top guy during his career. Then hanging around for 2 years as a terrible player who was obviously trying to get to 500 HRs hurt his legacy a bit.

[Huck]

Originally Posted by Tabe

McGriff was never seen as an elite player during his career. Never remotely close to an MVP (4th once). Never hit 40 HRs. Never reached 110 RBI in a season. Maybe he reaches those numbers in 1994 but we'll never know. Point being, he was never seen as a tip-top guy during his career. Then hanging around for 2 years as a terrible player who was obviously trying to get to 500 HRs hurt his legacy a bit.

Eddie Murray never hit 40 home runs in a season either, granted he did reach your magical 110 rbi plateau 5 times. Murray hung around for three years to reach 500 home runs. Given PEDS and inflated numbers, everyone should get behind McGriff, who put up clean numbers.

[Huck]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He bounced around with a lot of teams, and never had a really monster year I don't think. No higher than 4th in MVP voting, only led the league in anything twice. All that hurts him. But if Rice, Cepeda, and Dawson are in, it's hard to say why them and not him.

Sounds as if you are referring to Eddie Murray.....although "steady Eddie" finished second in MVP voting twice. Murray stunk up the league the last 3 years of his career to reach 500 home runs. Yes, Murray reached the 3000 hit plateau, but give McGriff an additional 3000+ at bats, and McGriff would be right there, actually blow by Eddie in home runs. McGriff should be in.

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by packs

Very surprised at the total lack of love for Fred McGriff. As far as I know there's never been a word spoken of him juicing and he's only 7 homers away from 500. 284 career average is pretty top flight for a slugger. I guess playing during the cartoonish steroid era is what's holding him back, but come on. The guy could hit with the best of them.

RE: Piazza, even with his early success on the public ballots he still needs 7 out of every 10 vote to get in. That's going to be tough and if he doesn't get in this year, I don't think he ever gets in. This is his weakest competition in terms of competing for votes.

Piazza is getting in this year. He is at 87% of the 143 publicly revealed votes. Last year no one on the ballot had a differential greater than 7% from the publicly revealed votes to their actual vote total. Griffey will be in (obviously) as he is at 100% of the public total. Raines and Bagwell look like they have a good shot, as both are at a shade over 80% of the public vote totals.

Tom C

[Cozumeleno]

Griffey and Piazza for me. In the immortal words of Tony Kornheiser, 'That's it - that's the list.'

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

I am very surprised that Jim Edmonds may not even get 5% of the vote. 8 Gold Glove awards. 393 career homers. 1191 RBI and 1251 Runs. .284 batting average. .376 OBP. 132 OPS+ for a great defensive center fielder. Lots of post season experience including 13 homers and .274 batting average. Maybe not quite a HOFer, but he certainly does not deserve to get the Ted Simmons treatment either.

Tom C

In my eyes, Edmonds should probably be in the HOF. Elite-level defense at a very difficult position, multiple 40 HR seasons, career 132 OPS+ - what else do you want?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Tabe

In my eyes, Edmonds should probably be in the HOF. Elite-level defense at a very difficult position, multiple 40 HR seasons, career 132 OPS+ - what else do you want?

4 AS teams. Never above 4th in MVP and only two top 10s. Didn't reach 2000 hits. Baseball reference numbers:

Gray Ink Batting - 60 (426), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 88 (202), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 39 (175), Average HOFer ≈ 50

JAWS Center Field (14th), 60.3 career WAR/42.5 7yr-peak WAR/51.4 JAWS
Average HOF CF (out of 18) = 70.4 career WAR/44.0 7yr-peak WAR/57.2 JAWS

In a word, no. In two words, no way.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

4 AS teams. Never above 4th in MVP and only two top 10s. Didn't reach 2000 hits. Baseball reference numbers:

Gray Ink Batting - 60 (426), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 88 (202), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 39 (175), Average HOFer ≈ 50

JAWS Center Field (14th), 60.3 career WAR/42.5 7yr-peak WAR/51.4 JAWS
Average HOF CF (out of 18) = 70.4 career WAR/44.0 7yr-peak WAR/57.2 JAWS

In a word, no. In two words, no way.

And that's the flip-side

[billyb]

My vote;

Griffey
Bagwell
Piazza
Trammell

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

4 AS teams. Never above 4th in MVP and only two top 10s. Didn't reach 2000 hits. Baseball reference numbers:

Gray Ink Batting - 60 (426), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 88 (202), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 39 (175), Average HOFer ≈ 50

JAWS Center Field (14th), 60.3 career WAR/42.5 7yr-peak WAR/51.4 JAWS
Average HOF CF (out of 18) = 70.4 career WAR/44.0 7yr-peak WAR/57.2 JAWS

In a word, no. In two words, no way.

Peter,

Are you so sure?

Take a look at JAWS using Fangraphs WAR instead of the BR WAR that you used. There are four HOFers at the CF position who are so far above the rest that they skew any "averages" as a result. Their career WAR numbers are so high that do you know whose career WAR is only a very small amount "above average" for a HOFer?

Ken Griffey Jr.

If you take Mays, Mantle, Cobb and Speaker out of the equation, take a look at where Edmonds rates against HOF CF in career WAR per Fangraphs:

DiMaggio 83.1
Griffey Jr 77.7
Hamilton (Billy) 70.3
Edmonds 64.5
Snider 63.5
Carey 60.1
Dawson 59.5
Ashburn 57.4
Doby 51.1
Roush 49.6
Duffy 48.3
Averill 47.9
Puckett 44.9
Wilson 42.1
Combs 41.3

Those are the OF used in the JAWS calculation on BR (plus Griffeyband Edmonds).

How about peak 7 year WAR without Cobb or Mantle or Mays or Speaker factored in?

DiMaggio 52.5
Griffey 51.1
Snider 47.5
Edmonds 45.4
Hamilton 45.2
Ashburn 40.8
Doby 39.8
Dawson 38.4
Wilson 38.4
Averill 37.3
Duffy 35.8
Carey 34.4
Puckett 33.9
Combs 33.3
Roush 32.7

Yet Edmonds is going to get less than 5% of the vote and not be eligible again? Seriously?

Tom C

[Peter_Spaeth]

Similarity ScoresExplanation of Similarity Scores


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1.Lance Berkman (910)
2.Ellis Burks (908)
3.Duke Snider (902) *
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5.Dale Murphy (877)
6.Fred Lynn (877)
7.Larry Walker (873)
8.Alfonso Soriano (871)
9.Andruw Jones (871)
10.Moises Alou (870)
* - Signifies Hall of Famer

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26.Bobby Higginson (975) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
27.Bobby Higginson (966) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
28.Larry Doby (962) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
29.Corey Hart (951) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
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32.Tim Salmon (927) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
33.Tim Salmon (932) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
34.Tim Salmon (921) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
35.Tim Salmon (913) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
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40.Jason Giambi (879) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

[btcarfagno]

Similarity scores are offense only and not position specific.

Tom C

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

Peter,

Are you so sure?

Take a look at JAWS using Fangraphs WAR instead of the BR WAR that you used. There are four HOFers at the CF position who are so far above the rest that they skew any "averages" as a result. Their career WAR numbers are so high that do you know whose career WAR is only a very small amount "above average" for a HOFer?

Ken Griffey Jr.

If you take Mays, Mantle, Cobb and Speaker out of the equation, take a look at where Edmonds rates against HOF CF in career WAR per Fangraphs:

DiMaggio 83.1
Griffey Jr 77.7
Hamilton (Billy) 70.3
Edmonds 64.5
Snider 63.5
Carey 60.1
Dawson 59.5
Ashburn 57.4
Doby 51.1
Roush 49.6
Duffy 48.3
Averill 47.9
Puckett 44.9
Wilson 42.1
Combs 41.3

Those are the OF used in the JAWS calculation on BR (plus Griffeyband Edmonds).

How about peak 7 year WAR without Cobb or Mantle or Mays or Speaker factored in?

DiMaggio 52.5
Griffey 51.1
Snider 47.5
Edmonds 45.4
Hamilton 45.2
Ashburn 40.8
Doby 39.8
Dawson 38.4
Wilson 38.4
Averill 37.3
Duffy 35.8
Carey 34.4
Puckett 33.9
Combs 33.3
Roush 32.7

Yet Edmonds is going to get less than 5% of the vote and not be eligible again? Seriously?

Tom C

All well and good, but he is a .284 hitter with 1900 hits. Who never led the league in a single category. I'm not beating the drum on this one.

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

All well and good, but he is a .284 hitter with 1900 hits. I'm not beating the drum on this one.

I'm not saying he is a HOFer...but one and done? He's getting the Ted Simmons treatment?

Tom C

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

All well and good, but he is a .284 hitter with 1900 hits. Who never led the league in a single category. I'm not beating the drum on this one.

Also, are we really going with batting average as a top factor for HOF consideration? This isn't 1925 anymore.

Tom C

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by billyb

I just cannot believe Trammell not getting any respect from anyone. The guys offensive numbers are on the bubble for his position, for HOF enshrinement, but when you add in his defensive achievements, he should walk into the Hall of Fame. Four gold gloves, and three silver sluggers awards, 7 times an all star, I believe 7 times getting votes as League MVP, In his career, he only struck out 24 more times then he walked. Career on base percentage of 352 for a shortstop. His one and only time he played in the World Series and he won the MVP. His WAR number just behind Jeter. And not one consideration, WOW. I am surprised.

I've said on more than one occasion that I think Trammell deserves induction, and I included him on my ballot in the other discussion on the sports talk page.

He compares quite favorably with other Hall of Fame shortstops:

The average career WAR of HoF shortstops: 66.7. Trammell's career WAR: 70.4
The average 7-year peak WAR of HoF shortstops: 42.8 WAR. Trammell's 7 year peak: 44.6

Compare his seven year peak WAR to that of his contemporary, Robin Yount, who is in the Hall of Fame: 47.2 WAR

I also happen to think Trammell's double play partner, Lou Whitaker, deserves serious consideration for the Hall. Inexplicably, he received only 2.9% of the vote the one time he appeared on the ballot. When you look at Whitaker's similarity scores, and see the players he is most similar to are Ryne Sandberg, Trammell, Roberto Alomar, Buddy Bell and Joe Morgan, I don't get the lack of support for his induction. Whitaker was a Rookie of the Year, a five-time All Star, won three Gold Gloves, four Silver Sluggers, and his 74.9 WAR is eleventh all-time at the position. His lifetime stats are quite good for the position: 1,386 runs scored, 2,369 hits, 420 doubles, 244 home runs, 1,084 RBI, 143 SB, 1,197 BB vs 1,099 Ks, and a .363/.426/.789 slash line.

By the way, Jeff Kent's career WAR is only 55.2. His numbers, at first glance, are far sexier than Whitaker's, but Kent also played during one of the greatest offensive boons in baseball history. Put it this way, between 1977 and 1995 (the years Whitaker played the game), there were 3 50 home run seasons. Between 1992 and 2008 (the years Kent played the game), there were 23 50 home run seasons. 100 RBI seasons? Between 1977 and 1995, there were 284. Between 1992 and 2008, there were 584. The difference in 100 RBI seasons between Whitaker's era and Kent's, 300, is more than the total of 100 RBI seasons in the entirety of Whitaker's era. This is why context is always important when judging a player based solely on their statistics. Another statistic to consider: there were 11 130 RBI seasons between 1977 and 1995. There were 76 130 RBI seasons between 1992 and 2008.

In Jeff Kent's best RBI season, 1998 when he had 128, there were 42 players in the Majors who drove in over 100 runs. While Kent was certainly an offensive force, some perspective is needed. In his MVP season, he had a 1.021 OPS. Most years, that would lead the league, if not the Majors. His OPS was only the third highest on his own team. Ellis Burks had a 1.025 OPS, and Barry Bonds had a 1.127 OPS. In fact, his 1.021 OPS was 17th best in the Majors (450 PA's minimum), behind such superstars like Brian Giles and Richard Hidalgo.

Kent will likely make the Hall, and I'm not saying that he is undeserving. But he's not the slam dunk some are making him out to be.