What Is the Median Scarcity for Old Judge Poses?

[oldjudge]

The low number is certainly one. The high number probably represents a common pose that was issued in 1887 and reissued in 1888-1890. I would guess that number is south of 100, but probably not a lot south, perhaps 80-90.

[oldjudge]

I still think 50,000 seems high. I wonder how many people on the board have any Old Judges.

[Jobu]

Is it time for a "What is Your OJ Number?" thread?

(Watch out Frank, the N guys are gunning for you!)

[insidethewrapper]

I know some have been graded more than once but here's the numbers from the graders " PSA 3,855 and SGC 8,855 = 12,710 graded.

[Joe_G.]

Some may remember a similar discussion last year (OJ survival rate of up to 50k cards).

http://www.net54baseball.com/showthr...d.php?t=196113

Originally Posted by oldjudge

The low number is certainly one. The high number probably represents a common pose that was issued in 1887 and reissued in 1888-1890. I would guess that number is south of 100, but probably not a lot south, perhaps 80-90.

I agree that the most common OJ is likely around 100 and I place the first pose of George Myers in that category with both type A & B zero number cards, an Fb, and Fc. FWIW, my estimates were arrived at as follows:

no more than 40 cards from 1887 type A zero number
no more than 20 cards from 1887 type B zero number
no more than 15 cards from 1888 (Fb)
no more than 30 cards from 1889 (Fc)

This gives a total of 105 which I rounded down to 100 but could easily be less (70-100 would be good guesstimate) for pose 1. The same math was used on pose 2 & 3 and recommend that if you wish to collect all three poses of George Myers that you don't pass on the next pose 3 that surfaces (Fb only).

I should note that there are many examples of Fb cards with less than 15 examples. Fb Anson in street clothes may hit 15 while Anson in Uniform is 4 (or 5). Fb Deacon White poses 2 & 8 are maybe around 10 apiece while the other 7 are ~2-5.

There are many very tough poses. The largest population of new poses surfaced in 1888 and 1888 is likewise the year with the highest count for single year poses. These are generally very tough cards. These coupled with a handful of Script cards and 1889 California League cards together with the many recently added poses that are cropping variations (with ball / without ball) and you are able to pull the common poses that are known at ~100 copies down to the ~20 copy average.

[bwbc917]

Fascinating info. Keep the theories coming.

[sreader3]

Originally Posted by Joe_G.

I agree that the most common OJ is likely around 100 and I place the first pose of George Myers in that category with both type A & B zero number cards, an Fb, and Fc. FWIW, my estimates were arrived at as follows:

no more than 40 cards from 1887 type A zero number
no more than 20 cards from 1887 type B zero number
no more than 15 cards from 1888 (Fb)
no more than 30 cards from 1889 (Fc)

Thanks for the great information guys.

Joe, I collect the Denver team, which I gather is 1889 only. Can I glean from your post about Myers that roughly 30 copies of the most common Denver poses (e.g. some of the Silch poses) exist? Or would it be lower (e.g. due to the Brooklyn/Denver team change) or perhaps higher? Thanks. Scot

[oldjudge]

Scot--Based on my experience, 30 copies is very high for any Denver pose. I would put the correct number in the ballpark 15-20 range for the most common Denver pose.
Joe and I will do some chatting to try to arrive at a "unified" guess to your original question.

[sreader3]

Thank you Jay.

Here is my experience with N172 Denvers. They are tough. At least I have one of each player.

Pose / Have? / Offered for sale* (since 2007)?

Dalrymple 113-1 No None
Darymple 113-2 Yes Multiple
Dalrymple 113-3 No None
Darnbrough 118-1 Yes Multiple
Darnbrough 118-2 No One
Dolan 126-1 Yes Multiple
Dolan 126-2 Yes Multiple
Fagan 151-1 Yes One
Healy 219-1 Yes One
Hoffman 228-1 No None
Hoffman 228-2 No None
Hoffman 228-3 No None
Hoffman 228-4 No None
Hoffman 228-5 Yes One
Klusman 265-1 No None
Klusman 265-2 Yes Multiple
Klusman 265-3 Yes Multiple
Klusman 265-4 Yes One
Klusman 265-5 No None
McClellan 304-1 No None
McClellan 304-3 Yes Multiple
McQuaid 318-1 Yes One
McQuaid 318-2 No None
McQuaid 318-3 Yes One
McQuaid 318-4 Yes One
McVey 321-1 No None
McVey 321-2 Yes One
McVey 321-3 Yes One
McVey 321-4 No None
McVey 321-5 No None
Rowe 393-1 No None
Rowe 393-2 Yes One
Rowe 393-3 No None
Silch 419-1 No One
Silch 419-3 Yes Multiple
Silch 419-4 Yes Multiple
Silch 419-5 Yes One
Treadway 463-1 Yes One

*What I have seen. Does not include lots.

[RCMcKenzie]

Here are 318-4 McQuaid Denver and 321-2 McVey Denvers from a lot from the recent Heritage auction. I don't know if they are included in your Denver census or not. When I was going through the lot, I stopped and looked at these and thought,"It seems like I don't see many Denvers that often"...

[sreader3]

Hi RC,

Thanks for the post. Beautiful cards, and I happen to have a copy of those poses. I sometimes miss the big lots, so lots are not be included in my survey. Still interesting to me since that is only the second copy of those poses I have seen offered in the last several years.

Scot