OT - Example of why card collecting is dying re: Topps

[Exhibitman]

I tend to agree with Steve. Collectors have a mentality, a sickness, really, that causes them to collect in the first place. As they get more involved they branch out chasing the high. The modern market does skew younger and those collectors are likely to turn to older cards. I started with the current Topps issues and made my way back to prewar over the years. That said, I also agree that as specific populaces age and either quit or pass away, certain segments of collecting will lose some of their market. The boomers are starting to age out of collecting while the Gen Xers are starting their peak earning years. I'd not be surprised to see average 1950s stuff lose some of its appeal relative other things as its audience ages out. Not the truly iconic sets like 1952 Topps or iconic cards--those have lives of their own apart from narrow niche collectors. I'd not be surprised if the 1970s does better as guys like me rebuild their childhood collections, which started with busting the annual Topps wax packs in the 1970s.

[packs]

I think 70s cards will explode too. You might even see people paying decent prices for Mattingly rookies and the like too. I think 30 years from now someone will gladly pay equal money for something like a Mattingly rookie as they will for lower tier HOFers like say Goose Gossage.

[ALR-bishop]

I have been collecting since 1957 and do not have the slightest idea of what is going to happen in regard to baseball card collecting in the future.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by ALR-bishop

I have been collecting since 1957 and do not have the slightest idea of what is going to happen in regard to baseball card collecting in the future.

This is the one good observation on the thread.

[yanks12025]

I can't believe people are paying $175 for a murphy signed bat. That is just too funny. The guy is at best an average player who had two good playoff series, some stupid team will pay him lots of money for average baseball(hopefully not the yankees)

[sbfinley]

Originally Posted by yanks12025

I can't believe people are paying $175 for a murphy signed bat. That is just too funny. The guy is at best an average player who had two good playoff series, some stupid team will pay him lots of money for average baseball(hopefully not the yankees)

He's actually an above average player who has had an exceptional season and a monster postseason. He is one of the best hit to contact batters in the league and led the major in both fewest K's and AB per K this season. While his HR numbers have not been spectacular, he has averaged almost 40 doubles a season the past four years and as a second baseman he would be an upgrade for probably 24-26 of the 30 franchises (Stephen Drew included). That's not exactly average.

[rjackson44]

Steve knows his numbers

[Rich Klein]

Originally Posted by packs

I think 70s cards will explode too. You might even see people paying decent prices for Mattingly rookies and the like too. I think 30 years from now someone will gladly pay equal money for something like a Mattingly rookie as they will for lower tier HOFers like say Goose Gossage.

1970-73 lo # cards will have a bump but not explode
Early 1970's high numbers and tough cards may have another run in them.

The mid-late 1970's will have a bump but the supply is sufficient that they will never explode.

Stars will be somewhere in the middle. I will tell you that someone bought out all my 1970's commons and stars (except for the few cards I had over $10) and there is demand for more.

Rich

[Laxcat]

Agreed. With the demand for the 70's. It sells like hot cakes.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I tend to agree with Steve. Collectors have a mentality, a sickness, really, that causes them to collect in the first place. As they get more involved they branch out chasing the high. The modern market does skew younger and those collectors are likely to turn to older cards. I started with the current Topps issues and made my way back to prewar over the years. That said, I also agree that as specific populaces age and either quit or pass away, certain segments of collecting will lose some of their market. The boomers are starting to age out of collecting while the Gen Xers are starting their peak earning years. I'd not be surprised to see average 1950s stuff lose some of its appeal relative other things as its audience ages out. Not the truly iconic sets like 1952 Topps or iconic cards--those have lives of their own apart from narrow niche collectors. I'd not be surprised if the 1970s does better as guys like me rebuild their childhood collections, which started with busting the annual Topps wax packs in the 1970s.

well the trick is what are the 'iconic' cards..are there just 5 of them? nobody knows for sure.....also for middle age guys..it doesn't matter about whether kids collect now...in terms of resale value....kids don't have 1000s to spend...30 years from now, yeah they are the new customers but for me I don't care about 30 years from now.....

the people with the collecting sickness will always look at the main issues and the 'Uncommon Commons'...yeah there are the big HOF guys..but when you see $3,000 being paid for a 1954 topps Ben Wade because POP is 20..thats more than a PSA 8 Jackie robinson or willie mays gets for example..

[packs]

Personally I don't think uncommon commons or scraps have much a future in collecting. The window is closing if you ask me, same thing with the pop fanatics. I think we'll see a pretty steady decline in the next few decades.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by packs

Personally I don't think uncommon commons or scraps have much a future in collecting. The window is closing if you ask me, same thing with the pop fanatics. I think we'll see a pretty steady decline in the next few decades.

haha 'next few decades' that's anything, ....VHS was doing well for less than a decade ..so were CDs...fortunes made 5x over in a few decades and lost as well....

heck not sure why I studied hard for my job..since can only work for a few decades.......a few decades means to me 20-30 years.... lots of things change in that amount of time....baseball cards is the least of my worries..

[chaddurbin]

modern card buyers are not collectors, they are amateur day-traders. everything they have is for sale at a moment's notice, they don't focus on anything besides the hottest prospect of the week or base their whole buying/selling around the release of the top 100 list, awards ceremony...and which teams are still in it.

baseball is an old man's audience...i'm tired of all the heart pain, acid reflux, and penis problem ads aimed at middle-aged white men. baseball is doing nothing to bring in the younger viewers. with the slow death of football i'm hoping that'd bring more athletes to start playing baseball again.

the "card hobby is dying" cry has been around forever true, but let's see in 20-30 years when today's teens grow older if they even know what "baseball" and "card collecting" is...

[glchen]

As long as they keep producing new baseball cards every year, I think the hobby will survive. If the 90s card bust and the cancelling of a World Series didn't destroy the hobby, I don't think anything will. I know people become worried by constantly seeing mostly old white people at the conventions, but the hobby's changed from the past. Kids have a lot more options for their money these days, and they're not buying packs from the corner drug store for the gum anymore. So I understand for the hobby that it's important to continue to get kids and young people involved. However, I think the hobby offers a lot of things other collectibles (like coins and stamps) don't have. Basically, there are different ways to collect for practically any budget. There are so many varieties, eras, etc of cards out there, you can just make up you own way to collect. You don't have to be limited by what stamps are in an album. If you want to collect a super rare card for which less than 10 are currently known, you can probably get one for less than $50. (e.g., a common from a set not widely collected) If you want a modern card of your favorite player with his auto, you can probably buy that also. I'd be more concerned about collecting sets like "Magic the Gathering" as who knows how long that game will be popular in the future.

[sbfinley]

Originally Posted by chaddurbin

modern card buyers are not collectors, they are amateur day-traders. everything they have is for sale at a moment's notice, they don't focus on anything besides the hottest prospect of the week or base their whole buying/selling around the release of the top 100 list, awards ceremony...and which teams are still in it.

baseball is an old man's audience...i'm tired of all the heart pain, acid reflux, and penis problem ads aimed at middle-aged white men. baseball is doing nothing to bring in the younger viewers. with the slow death of football i'm hoping that'd bring more athletes to start playing baseball again.

the "card hobby is dying" cry has been around forever true, but let's see in 20-30 years when today's teens grow older if they even know what "baseball" and "card collecting" is...

I have to disagree with you on this. I'll agree that there are many modern collectors only in it for the flip, but there wouldn't be a point to investing in Bowman draft if there aren't collectors one the other end to pay the inflated prices when the kids get the call-up.

Baseball is still popular. Football has supplanted it as most popular sport in America, but the sport still carries weight across the nation especially in the local markets. On top of that the sport has had the greatest influx of young and marketable talent since the early 1950's. Trout, Harper, Bryant, Stanton, Posey, Kershaw, Bumgarner, DeGrom, the list goes on and on. Yankees/Red Sox still gets the Duke/UNC treatment on ESPN. The Cubs will be relevant for the next decade. Talented foreign stars enter the league on a yearly basis. The sport is fine IMO.

[mechanicalman]

My limited, purely anecdotal data would suggest that there's at least another 30 years of a healthy vintage market. I use myself as evidence. I am 38. I grew up in the hey day of over-produced cards, 84-89. There were millions of kids like me, and now some of us (who knows what percentage?) are coming back to the hobby with disposal income and spending on the cards that we only dreamt about as kids. I see many collectors on this board around the same age with the same story. Barring any of life's circumstances that might cause a sell-off, many of us should be collecting into our 60s/70s (like another large segment on this board.) Therefore, I conclude we should be good for a while, and the current shiny market (healthy or not) should not have any bearing on that.

[packs]

Well I said next few decades because of life expectancy of the boomers. Most will die out in the next 20 years, and the rest in the next 30.

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

My limited, purely anecdotal data would suggest that there's at least another 30 years of a healthy vintage market. I use myself as evidence. I am 38. I grew up in the hey day of over-produced cards, 84-89. There were millions of kids like me, and now some of us (who knows what percentage?) are coming back to the hobby with disposal income and spending on the cards that we only dreamt about as kids. I see many collectors on this board around the same age with the same story. Barring any of life's circumstances that might cause a sell-off, many of us should be collecting into our 60s/70s (like another large segment on this board.) Therefore, I conclude we should be good for a while, and the current shiny market (healthy or not) should not have any bearing on that.

This.

All of it.

Tom C

[7nohitter]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

This.

All of it.

Tom C

Agree. With all of it.

[1952boyntoncollector]

I agree that people collecting as kids in the 1980s-90s should still keep the hobby going especially with internet and the sport of auctions....

30 years is a long time from now ...thought its not like on the 29th year everyone than tries to sell...what happens when a market crashes is it happens all at once ..like the housing market...people were saying the housing market was going to crash eventually...but than BAAAM....hello shortsale and robosignatures..