2016 Pre-Integration Era HOF Candidates

[timn1]

Bill James puts Ferrell's 4.04 ERA in context as 22% better than league average (park and era adjusted). The 22% better than league average compares favorably to a lot of the second-tier HOF pitchers. Put him in Dodger Stadium in the 1960s, and Koufax in League Park in the 1930s, and the ERA numbers would (mostly) reverse. More precisely, Ferrell in Dodger Stadium is Drysdale with a much better winning PCT.

Also, WHIP is a great stat, but like ERA it works best in conjunction with others rather than in isolation. Ultimately I dont think it measures overall effectiveness as a pitcher (as opposed to, say, raw talent) as well as a pitcher's winning PCT relative to the teams he played on.

Ferrell's good years were 1929-1936 when he went 161-94 (.631) (very high ERAs during the rest of his career, but still only .500 - not "absolute garbage"). Subtracting his decisions his teams 1929-1936 went 469-498 (.485). In other words he was pitching for subpar teams and carrying them on his back. Then he broke down, but unlike Koufax (who retired with a similar record), Ferrell tried to keep going and his ERA went up as he endured a long decline phase.

BTW, Drysdale was 199-157 (.560) during his effective years (1957-68). Without his decisions the Dodgers were 837-716 (.540). Not that much of an improvement to the team.

On the other hand, Ferrell's relative winning PCT (.631/.485) is almost exactly comparable to Koufax's six strong seasons (1961-66) when he went 129-47 (.733) relative to his team without him: 562-407 (.580)

I don't expect it will convince any of the naysayers, but I would be totally comfortable arguing that Ferrell was a better pitcher than Drysdale and quite close to Koufax in quality during their peak years (not close in pitcher type, obviously).

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

Ferrell's WHIP and FIP numbers were about 15% better than the AVERAGE pitcher during his best 8 seasons. After that he was absolute garbage. I'm not thrilled with putting someone in who was 15% better than an average pitcher during his best seasons.

I hope you aren't touting wins as a stat that shows he is Hall of Fame worthy. Wins show how many more run your team scored than how many they gave up while you were the pitcher of record. He only controls half of that.

Nolan Ryan was a very inefficient pitcher. He also struck out more than the population of some countries, and threw a ton of no-hitters which...while they involve some amount of luck...are a very popular happening.

Tom C