I'n new memeber, Babe Ruth help

[Lordstan]

Originally Posted by Runscott

It is generally not that black and white. If you know the autograph well enough to feel good about it, then call your two experts to validate your own EXPERT opinion, you are more likely to have one say "I like it" and one say "I don't feel comfortable with it", then "authentic" and "not authentic". You then find out why the "no" guy has his opinion and you address his concerns. He might very well change his opinion. I have had this happen many times.

If you want to buy an expensive autograph, you are not an expert, but you know two experts who tell you "I like it" and "I don't feel comfortable with it", and you trust each opinion equally, then I would not buy it. Becoming somewhat of an expert yourself opens you up to a much larger part of the hobby.

Exactly.
This is what I was trying to say as well.

[Pickles]

Interesting dialogue and one worth the time to analyze. My question on the 2k/10k (or a 5:1 value ratio) is a daily question in business for managers/CEOs etc on how to gamble to grow a company. Clearly if you can take a risk/reward ratio less than 1, then make it up in volume ad do it. Autographs is unfortunately not that simpl, and, when using one's own finances, the risk/reward ratio has to be much lower (0.1 or less) to make it a good thing.

I am getting the anticipated outcome (agree with the auto) and a lot of subjective (though not less valuable) insight. What I am missing is perhaps more technical detail (ie comments on the teardrop R, the stick "t", the "B", the "b") which may be "tribal knowledge" details of use to me and others.

Both PSA (Grad signature) and JSA (JSA III) authenticated and I have the LOA's. I was actually very impressed with JS III, as he actually identified 18 of the 21 (or 22) signatures. Only one I have no been able to "find" is Koenig, ad personally, I do not believe he is there, but, it takes a few minutes to figure those sigs out, and, in my case, had there not been a similar, higher quality ball on eBay (1929 NYY) it would have been far more time consuming.

So perhaps it may be worth re-directing the thread into a mmore technical analysis of the autos. I will kick it off: Both PSA and JSA identified Bill Dickey's auto. It is not easy to find, and I equate it to the old joke fo finding a pile of manure and concluding there is a pony, just have to find it. If I talk myself into it, I think I can see the slant on the Y and the Bill part of it (on the Lazzeri panel) but not something easily spottable.

[w7imel]

Psa and Jsa also have the equipment and years of experience identifying the 1929 yankees signatures as well. This is not the first yankee team ball that has been sent to them. I dont think you can look at autograph collecting the same way as you would run a company unless that you are planning on doing it for a living. I have bought things that I know I overpaid for and would never be able to sell it for the amount I paid because it was the right autograph for me.

[Runscott]

I don't want to turn your thread into a 'TPA bashing' thread; however, I don't include JSA or PSA (or SGC now) authentication in my decision process. If the autograph is good, and I think I might re-sell it, then such add-ons go into pricing, and I don't throw away COA's.

Applying the above: Just out of curiosity, how do you feel about someone saying: "I feel 90% certain that this autograph is real, therefore I think the 50% discount price is fair." I use '90%' in my example, but I could have used a much lower confidence % for some collectors (see the recent Mantle thread).

After you've made your decision about the previous example, let's say the top two TPA's are right about 90% of the Ruths they have authenticated. I personally think the number is lower, but you could even go with 95%. If you then assume a Ruth signature you want to purchase is real because one of the top TPA's says it is, and you aren't very knowledgeable, you run the risk of buying one from the 5-10% group of fails. Is it worth it? Would you pay 50% less for a car that doesn't start 5-10% of the time? Buy hamburger for 50% off that has a 5-10% chance of cooking up to taste horrible?

I really believe that you can learn enough to only buy Ruth autographs that fall in the 90% area. As Mark said, you won't get them for even 20% off.