I'n new memeber, Babe Ruth help

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by Pickles

BTW Mark (Lordstan)

An 1nteresting side note, let's keep it simple:

You have a Ruth auto (paper) which, if authentic is worth >$10K (eBay numbers)
If not authentic is worth #0.02
It can be bought for $2000
You consult 2 of your most trusted experts, call them Peter and Joseph. One says is authentic, one says is not. You also believe it is authentic. So it is 2:1

Do you pull the trigger at $2,000, (20% of BV) or do you have to be above a specific threshold (say 9 out of 10 experts) to get there????

It is generally not that black and white. If you know the autograph well enough to feel good about it, then call your two experts to validate your own EXPERT opinion, you are more likely to have one say "I like it" and one say "I don't feel comfortable with it", then "authentic" and "not authentic". You then find out why the "no" guy has his opinion and you address his concerns. He might very well change his opinion. I have had this happen many times.

If you want to buy an expensive autograph, you are not an expert, but you know two experts who tell you "I like it" and "I don't feel comfortable with it", and you trust each opinion equally, then I would not buy it. Becoming somewhat of an expert yourself opens you up to a much larger part of the hobby.

[Lordstan]

Originally Posted by Runscott

It is generally not that black and white. If you know the autograph well enough to feel good about it, then call your two experts to validate your own EXPERT opinion, you are more likely to have one say "I like it" and one say "I don't feel comfortable with it", then "authentic" and "not authentic". You then find out why the "no" guy has his opinion and you address his concerns. He might very well change his opinion. I have had this happen many times.

If you want to buy an expensive autograph, you are not an expert, but you know two experts who tell you "I like it" and "I don't feel comfortable with it", and you trust each opinion equally, then I would not buy it. Becoming somewhat of an expert yourself opens you up to a much larger part of the hobby.

Exactly.
This is what I was trying to say as well.

[Pickles]

Interesting dialogue and one worth the time to analyze. My question on the 2k/10k (or a 5:1 value ratio) is a daily question in business for managers/CEOs etc on how to gamble to grow a company. Clearly if you can take a risk/reward ratio less than 1, then make it up in volume ad do it. Autographs is unfortunately not that simpl, and, when using one's own finances, the risk/reward ratio has to be much lower (0.1 or less) to make it a good thing.

I am getting the anticipated outcome (agree with the auto) and a lot of subjective (though not less valuable) insight. What I am missing is perhaps more technical detail (ie comments on the teardrop R, the stick "t", the "B", the "b") which may be "tribal knowledge" details of use to me and others.

Both PSA (Grad signature) and JSA (JSA III) authenticated and I have the LOA's. I was actually very impressed with JS III, as he actually identified 18 of the 21 (or 22) signatures. Only one I have no been able to "find" is Koenig, ad personally, I do not believe he is there, but, it takes a few minutes to figure those sigs out, and, in my case, had there not been a similar, higher quality ball on eBay (1929 NYY) it would have been far more time consuming.

So perhaps it may be worth re-directing the thread into a mmore technical analysis of the autos. I will kick it off: Both PSA and JSA identified Bill Dickey's auto. It is not easy to find, and I equate it to the old joke fo finding a pile of manure and concluding there is a pony, just have to find it. If I talk myself into it, I think I can see the slant on the Y and the Bill part of it (on the Lazzeri panel) but not something easily spottable.

[w7imel]

Psa and Jsa also have the equipment and years of experience identifying the 1929 yankees signatures as well. This is not the first yankee team ball that has been sent to them. I dont think you can look at autograph collecting the same way as you would run a company unless that you are planning on doing it for a living. I have bought things that I know I overpaid for and would never be able to sell it for the amount I paid because it was the right autograph for me.

[Runscott]

I don't want to turn your thread into a 'TPA bashing' thread; however, I don't include JSA or PSA (or SGC now) authentication in my decision process. If the autograph is good, and I think I might re-sell it, then such add-ons go into pricing, and I don't throw away COA's.

Applying the above: Just out of curiosity, how do you feel about someone saying: "I feel 90% certain that this autograph is real, therefore I think the 50% discount price is fair." I use '90%' in my example, but I could have used a much lower confidence % for some collectors (see the recent Mantle thread).

After you've made your decision about the previous example, let's say the top two TPA's are right about 90% of the Ruths they have authenticated. I personally think the number is lower, but you could even go with 95%. If you then assume a Ruth signature you want to purchase is real because one of the top TPA's says it is, and you aren't very knowledgeable, you run the risk of buying one from the 5-10% group of fails. Is it worth it? Would you pay 50% less for a car that doesn't start 5-10% of the time? Buy hamburger for 50% off that has a 5-10% chance of cooking up to taste horrible?

I really believe that you can learn enough to only buy Ruth autographs that fall in the 90% area. As Mark said, you won't get them for even 20% off.

[w7imel]

Originally Posted by Runscott

It is generally not that black and white. If you know the autograph well enough to feel good about it, then call your two experts to validate your own EXPERT opinion, you are more likely to have one say "I like it" and one say "I don't feel comfortable with it", then "authentic" and "not authentic". You then find out why the "no" guy has his opinion and you address his concerns. He might very well change his opinion. I have had this happen many times.

If you want to buy an expensive autograph, you are not an expert, but you know two experts who tell you "I like it" and "I don't feel comfortable with it", and you trust each opinion equally, then I would not buy it. Becoming somewhat of an expert yourself opens you up to a much larger part of the hobby.

Learning an autograph of of a player, Babe Ruth being the signature of this topic can also be fun and fulfilling as well. I am also new to this forum this year and have enjoyed learning about "what make an autograph authentic". I enjoy a purchase better when I feel I have done the legwork to make sure its authentic. And mr pickles everyone goes thru this when they buy a high dollar item so by learning a signature before purchasing goes along way to ease any anxiety you may have when purchasing. Welcome aboard the forum!!

[Pickles]

I had done the homework, but mostly in a vacuum. Read a lot of articles, studied the signatures, compared, etc. I had reached a point of diminishing returns since all conclusions I could have reached, I had already reached (It was likely to be authentic) The PSA and JSA agreements, which, in hindsight may have been Gutierrez at HA ding the setup and the other 2 TPAs doing the rubber stamping was a bonus. When you look at it, HA added a lot of value in 2 certs + a Gutierrez evaluation and a lot fo good pictures.

What I found lacking in my research, and look for here is the interaction with other knowledgeable people, preferably with no skin in the game, in the hopes that they offer a different perspective, POV, or approach to doing this. Hopefully we can go from the "Yes" or "No" not authentic (I think the preponderance says "Yes") to why one thinks it is.

It is easy to get discouraged (Hauls of Shame) about some of the stuff that goes on in the hobby, and, without interaction, it is even easier to be cynical about motives by TPAs, auction houses, etc, who do have a lot of skin in the game. I'd like to think that carrying out this discussions allow the INDIVIDUALS a voice whcih, when compiled can be a greater voice. Thanks for taking te time to put thoughts. I may not agree with them all, but they are respected

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by Pickles

It is easy to get discouraged (Hauls of Shame) about some of the stuff that goes on in the hobby, and, without interaction, it is even easier to be cynical about motives by TPAs, auction houses, etc, who do have a lot of skin in the game. I'd like to think that carrying out this discussions allow the INDIVIDUALS a voice whcih, when compiled can be a greater voice. Thanks for taking te time to put thoughts. I may not agree with them all, but they are respected

Good points. The HOS articles about Ruth forgeries are very good, and well worth your time to read - Nash steals a lot of stuff from our forum, and also from discussions he has 1st or 2nd-hand with experts in the hobby, some of whom he credits, and others he doesn't, but he knows who is worth stealing from.

I don't know one way or the other if the two main TPA's are experts. The fact that they authenticate obvious forgeries makes me wonder; however, it could be that they are motivated by other things that end up masking their expertise. Regarding AH's that sell obvious forgeries, it is important to understand that they really can't auction expensive autographs that do not come with COA's - Lelands tried it for a while, and I bought most of my autographs from them back then, but most collectors require the security of a COA. Having said that, once an auction house chooses a TPA to be their authenticator, they have to go with the TPA's opinion. I have contacted a few of the large AH's when I was positive they were auctioning a forgery that had a PSA or JSA COA, but they felt that their hands were tied - they either accept everything the TPA tells them, or they fire them. Is their some collusion going on that fills the pockets of both? Probably. But it really comes down to collectors accepting the TPA's and paying for their pieces of paper.

Finally, compiled individual voices in this autograph sub-forum do not create a "greater voice" - it creates a compilation of voices of various knowledge levels, some that sound very confident and convincing, but shouldn't be.

[RichardSimon]

Scott,
It seems that based on their catalogs Lelands still does not use TPA's except for an occasional item which probably was submitted with the COA.
I know Mike and Josh and IMO they are better at authenticating then the TPA's.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by RichardSimon

Scott,
It seems that based on their catalogs Lelands still does not use TPA's except for an occasional item which probably was submitted with the COA.
I know Mike and Josh and IMO they are better at authenticating then the TPA's.

Thanks for that correction, Richard. Someone told me a few auctions back that Lelands now used TPA's and the few I had read the detailed descriptions of had them. I agree - I have always enjoyed Lelands because Josh has a great selection, does whatever he wants, and has the expertise to do so. Speaking of, I just got my first hardcopy Lelands catalog in quite some time. Looking forward to perusing it over a bottle of Anchor Christmas...now.

[Pickles]

OK I am trying to create a signature and picture in order to minimize skepticism. bear with me as I work through the settings

I a also somewhat dyslexic when I type, and will reverse characters, and, coupled with a wireless kbd which is not always as quick as my fingers, you will find the occasional typo. Do not assume lack of education from the typos.

Back to the thread:

"Finally, compiled individual voices in this autograph sub-forum do not create a "greater voice" - it creates a compilation of voices of various knowledge levels, some that sound very confident and convincing, but shouldn't be."

Populist opinion is always valid, though not always right. Notice my "push" to get more technical facts on the auto as a way of having a more informed discussion. I am no competing with TPA's, nor want their business, but I do recognize that the public places a lot fo faith in them. I am not there on trusting them with 100's or 1000's of dollar investments, to be sure, but, they have become a necessary evil (savior?) of the hobby. Having said that, threat this thread as an alternate way of doing TPA, Take the Ted Williams auto in a thread Dec 25/26 2014. Not the most challenging forgery, but it saved someone (hopefully) $50 or so for a RT ticket to a TPA to get a rejection. I see value in this

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by Pickles

Populist opinion is always valid, though not always right. Notice my "push" to get more technical facts on the auto as a way of having a more informed discussion. I am no competing with TPA's, nor want their business, but I do recognize that the public places a lot fo faith in them. I am not there on trusting them with 100's or 1000's of dollar investments, to be sure, but, they have become a necessary evil (savior?) of the hobby. Having said that, threat this thread as an alternate way of doing TPA, Take the Ted Williams auto in a thread Dec 25/26 2014. Not the most challenging forgery, but it saved someone (hopefully) $50 or so for a RT ticket to a TPA to get a rejection. I see value in this

I think the above is spot-on. The technical facts are something that just takes time, as sharing them publicly is a double-edged sword. Plus, it's of value to figure some of it out on your own, both to yourself and to the hobby - by having a completely fresh outlook you could very well spot a new 'tell' that the experts never noticed.

[Pickles]

Regarding the double edged sword:

I suspect the "fear factor" is to "tip" a forgerer on how to make better forgeries. The other side is that one helps a lot of collectors in helping identify what is real. If someone goes into the forgery, they will likely do it with some help (it takes $ and some degree of sponsorship) and I suspect that if someone practices the forgeries to become an expert, he/she will study and develop their own techniques. On the other hand, the larger number of people which become educated and now have a better appreciation for what to look for in an authentic signature, I believe outweighs the negatives. no doubt there are pros and cons, but I am of the opinion that the pros outweigh the cons. Cardboard connection has some top level examples of what to look for on a Babe Ruth signature, bt this amounts to the tip of the tip of an iceberg, and, is perhaps the economic equivalent of "buy low- sell high" advice. Nonetheless, it is a start. I do hope that readers come to a similar conclusion and choose to share tips (not all of which are bound to be correct)