OT: Did Adam Dunn ruin his Hall chances

[Runscott]

lol.

They are exactly alike in every respect - size, stats, shoe size, even hat size. I think they even had the same 1st-grade teacher.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Runscott

lol.

They are exactly alike in every respect - size, stats, shoe size, even hat size. I think they even had the same 1st-grade teacher.

Huh? Balboni is 3 inches shorter, 60 lbs lighter, and even their stats are far apart. I realize you were exaggerating, Scott, but as the previous poster pointed out, Dunn wasn't the person that everybody is making him out to be.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Huh? Balboni is 3 inches shorter, 60 lbs lighter, and even their stats are far apart. I realize you were exaggerating, Scott, but as the previous poster pointed out, Dunn wasn't the person that everybody is making him out to be.

David, I wasn't exaggerating - I was being ludicrous.

My earlier (prior to my ludicrous one) post did not say that Balboni and Dunn are the same. Please re-read it. I realize that you guys are sensitive about Dunn, but my opinion is that he is not HOF material. That's all I'm saying. Sure he is desirable on a major league team. Sure he has had some great years. Sure he hits with power. But personally, I don't think his overall performance is HOF-worthy. I think that letting him in would be further watering down the HOF. That's all I was saying.

Back when Lefty Grove was voted in, I could have said "What's next, Phil Niekro?". Obviously that would not have been stating that Niekro and Grove are exactly alike, or even that they compare - only that Niekro is clearly a step or more below Grove.

[pbspelly]

Originally Posted by Runscott

I realize that you guys are sensitive about Dunn, but my opinion is that he is not HOF material. That's all I'm saying. Sure he is desirable on a major league team. Sure he has had some great years. Sure he hits with power. But personally, I don't think his overall performance is HOF-worthy. I think that letting him in would be further watering down the HOF. That's all I was saying.

I like the guy, but I don't know that I'm particularly sensitive about Dunn.

What I said was that he is NOT Hall of Fame material, but that if he had had a few more great years (like he did from 2004-2010) his overall performance would have been higher, and then he would have been HOF material. Which sounds a lot like what you just wrote.

Unless you are saying that someone who hits 40 homers, 35 doubles, and walks 100 times a year can NEVER be HOF material--no matter how many times he does it--so long as he's slow and strikes out a lot. Which may be a legitimate point of view, although it might mean we'd have to kick out people like Ralph Kiner and Harmon Killebrew. (Killebrew, by the way, has stats that are somewhat comparable to Dunn in his prime, but Killebrew maintained the high level of play for longer.)

But again, I specifically said that Dunn is not HOF material. Just that he could have been.

[packs]

I would add Reggie Jackson to that list too. Reggie only made it to 500 homers by playing 4 more seasons after hitting .194 for the Angels in 1983. He is as much of a compiler as anyone but was voted in first ballot and by 93 percent of voters.

I don't think Dunn is a HOFer either but I like him and think his abilities should be more respected than they are. He was only 4 homers away (two straight seasons of 38) from hitting 40 homers seven years in a row. Only Babe Ruth has ever done that in the history of the game.

[Runscott]

Also, I think it's great that Dunn was almost able to do one thing that Babe Ruth did, and I also am gleaning from this thread, that everyone is in agreement that Dunn can hit a lot of HR's. If HR's were the only aspect of baseball that counted, then Dunn would be a HOF'er for sure.

Ruth lifetime batting average: .342
Dunn lifetime batting average: .237

[nolemmings]

Killebrew, by the way, has stats that are somewhat comparable to Dunn in his prime, but Killebrew maintained the high level of play for longer.

Although I agree with your response generally, the comparison to Killebrew is weak. Not only did he play in a pitching-rich era, he dominated and was considered among the elite. He won an MVP, finished second in the voting once--to a triple crown winner--finished third twice, fourth twice and received MVP votes five other seasons. Dunn never dominated nor approached dominating his league even once, and as mentioned, seldom received any MVP votes. By way of comparison, Killer received 15 MVP votes in 1965, a year when he was hurt and only played in 113 games. Dunn has received 15 MVP votes in 14 years. So not only did Killer put up big numbers longer, he did so at a much higher level than Dunn and at a time when pitching was better overall.

EDITED TO ADD: Also, Dunn never even led his league in HRs, while Killebrew led the MAJORS in HR three times, tied for first one year and finished 1 behind Mays in another.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by nolemmings

EDITED TO ADD: Also, Dunn never even led his league in HRs, while Killebrew led the MAJORS in HR three times, tied for first one year and finished 1 behind Mays in another.

True, but Killebrew wasn't competing with PED users and Dunn was.

Dunn may have never led the league in HRs, but I would bet my left testicle that he never used PEDs either.

[Peter_Spaeth]

So far, the tally:

Not a HOFer: 100+??
a HOFer if he hits 500HR: 1

A brave man stands alone.

[nolemmings]

Adam Dunn reached the 40 HR mark five times, once in the AL where he finished behind Bautista, Hamilton, Encarnacion and Curtis Granderson - hardly juicers row.

On one of the four occasions in the NL, Dunn didn't finish in the top 10 in MLB, and couldn't even pass Carlos Beltran or Andruw Jones (among others) in his own league.

The three other times he fell short of Adrian Beltre, Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols, not Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa. Other seasons he chased the likes of Mark Reynolds, Derek Lee, Paul Konerko, Carlos Pena, Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder. His failure to rise to the top of his own league much less all of MLB is not a story attributed others' PED use.

[pbspelly]

Originally Posted by nolemmings

Although I agree with your response generally, the comparison to Killebrew is weak.

You may be correct. I didn't spend a lot of time analyzing the numbers.

[vintagetoppsguy]

I've stated that if this is indeed Dunn's last year, then he doesn't make the HOF. But let's say this isn't Dunn's last year. Let's say he goes on to play 3 more years and averages 30 HRs a year and finishes his career with around 550 HRs. Is he a HOFer then?

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by pbspelly

Unless you are saying that someone who hits 40 homers, 35 doubles, and walks 100 times a year can NEVER be HOF material--no matter how many times he does it--so long as he's slow and strikes out a lot.

I have no idea how you made that leap of logic from what I posted.

[pbspelly]

Originally Posted by Runscott

I have no idea how you made that leap of logic from what I posted.

No great leap on my part, I don't think.

You wrote that Dunn had some great years and hit a lot of homers yet his "overall performance" was not HOF-worthy. So the question is, what does the word "overall" mean. It either means (a) his overall career stats, in other words, the number of great years where he hit a lot of homers, or (b) his overall skillset (his game apart from homers and doubles and walks). Since I conceded in my original post that he had not had enough great seasons, it seemed that you had to be arguing that his overall skillset was not HOF-worthy, not that he hadn't had enough great years. In which case, you are saying that averaging 40 homers, 35 doubles, and 100 walks a year (Dunn during his prime) does not make you a Hall of Famer if the rest of your overall performance is unexceptional. Which is a perfectly legitimate point of view. Just not one that I share.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by pbspelly

No great leap on my part, I don't think.

You wrote that....

Rather than dealing with exactly what I said, you added "Unless you are saying". Now you are stating "You wrote that..." There is no need to put words in my mouth - I was saying exactly what I said - no straw man, no twists, just plain simple English. So we disagree - no big deal. The HOF if full of guys who shouldn't be there - add Adam Dunn. What the heck.

Originally Posted by pbspelly

Killebrew, by the way, has stats that are somewhat comparable to Dunn in his prime, but Killebrew maintained the high level of play for longer.

Yikes - I'm a big Killebrew fan, and I cringe whenever I see him compared to players like Dunn, or even Thome. Even if you double Dunn's prime stats, he ain't no Killebrew.

Killebrew won an MVP, Dunn hasn't.
Killebrew was in the top 5 in MVP voting 6 times, Dunn never has been.
Killebrew was an 11-time AS, Dunn was twice.

Killebrew was a 6-time HR champ, Dunn never has been.
Killebrew was a 3-time RBI champ, Dunn never has been.
Killebrew was in the top 5 in RBI 9 times, Dunn never has been.

Killebrew was in the top 5 in SA 10 times, Dunn was once.
Killebrew's BA was 3 points below the league average, Dunn's is 30 below.
Killebrew's SA was 116 points above the league average, Dunn's is 66 above.
Killebrew's OPS was 160 points above the league average, Dunn's is 94 above.

Killebrew led the league in strikeouts just once to Dunn's 4 times
Killebrew was in the top 5 in SO only 5 times to Dunn's 11
Dunn has struck out an incredible 64% more frequently than Killebrew (despite Harmon's hit-or-miss reputation, his strikeout frequency was only 3 percentage points higher than the league average during his career)

My favorite stat for Harmon is one I've never seen published anywhere: In 10 different seasons he hit 25 or more home runs in an 82 games or fewer stretch, with 33 in 81 games in 1964, 30 in 82 games in both 1959 and 1969, and 29 in just 75 games in 1967.

[pbspelly]

I will concede that Killebrew was a better player. Certainly over his career.

My point was about individual seasons in their prime. Take a look below at typical seasons in their prime and see if you can tell which are Dunn and which are Killebrew and you'll see what I meant.

106 runs, 20 doubles, 2 triples, 49 hrs, 140 rbi, 145 walks, 84 strikeouts, .427 on base pctg, .585 slugging average

107 runs, 34 doubles, 0 triples, 46 hrs, 102 rbi, 108 walks, 195 strikeouts, .388 on base pctg, .569 slugging avg

79 runs, 23 doubles, 0 triples, 40 hrs, 100 rbi, 122 walks, 164 strikeouts, .386 obp, .513 sa

85 runs, 21 doubles, 1 triple, 48 hrs, 126 rbi, 106 walks, 142 strikeouts, .366 obp, .545 sa