OT: Did Adam Dunn ruin his Hall chances

[itjclarke]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

I still love batting average. It's fallen out of favor with a lot of statisticians, but I think that's a mistake. If a hitter's job is to get on base, yes, OBP is the ultimate measure of how effective a player is doing their given job. But I want to see the batting average component. To me, it's a pure metric. Before one starts tossing in things like BABIP, AVG calculates how well a player sees the field, sees and adjusts to the ball, and is able to deliver the ball where there's no fielder. And I want hitters with high averages because that tells me that they are effective with the bat. A player can draw walks for a variety of reasons. Power hitters might get more walks, if they are patient, because a pitcher doesn't want to get burned. So, that pitcher might throw around the outside of the strike zone. They may also get pitched around with runners on base. But in those instances where a pitcher goes after the hitter, I want somebody like a Clemente, or a Gwynn, or a Gehrig-guys that hit for pure average. Ted Williams drew a lot of walks. I mean walks made up for 138 points of his OBP. But the man could flat out hit, as shown by his career .344 average.

Perfectly said Bill. I too like to look at batting averages. A walk is not as good as a hit in all situations. Come late innings or playoff time, give me a guy that can swing it over a guy who's strictly a high OBP guy.

[the 'stache]

Absolutely, Ian. And thank you!

If a high OBP guy comes up with the bases loaded in a playoff game, I'd rather he go for the hit than try to draw a walk. A hit could score multiple runs, or even clear the bases.

Originally Posted by itjclarke

Perfectly said Bill. I too like to look at batting averages. A walk is not as good as a hit in all situations. Come late innings or playoff time, give me a guy that can swing it over a guy who's strictly a high OBP guy.

[pbspelly]

Not a Hall-of-Famer but he was actually a very productive player from 2004-2010, despite the strikeouts. During that time, he hit 231 doubles and walked 750 times, so he did more than just hit home runs (of which he hit 242 during that seven-year stretch). For that period, you had a guy who averaged 33 doubles, 35 home runs, 107 walks, and an OBP of .371 per year, which is typically somebody you want on your team. Keep that up for a few more years and you've got a bona fide Hall-of-Famer, regardless of the low batting average and poor fielding.

He aged quickly, though, and his production really fell off when he moved to the AL and into the designated hitter spot (which may have had something to do with it- some studies have found that players hit worse as DHs than as everyday fielders, but Dunn was not a good fielder so there would be a trade-off).

Sabermetricians tend to find him a fascinating player because more than almost any other player, his at-bats resulted in one the "three true outcomes," a home run, a walk, or a strikeout. See http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...omes-milestone

A lot of people found him boring to watch for the same reason.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by pbspelly

Not a Hall-of-Famer but he was actually a very productive player from 2004-2010, despite the strikeouts. During that time, he hit 231 doubles and walked 750 times, so he did more than just hit home runs (of which he hit 242 during that seven-year stretch). For that period, you had a guy who averaged 33 doubles, 35 home runs, 107 walks, and an OBP of .371 per year, which is typically somebody you want on your team. Keep that up for a few more years and you've got a bona fide Hall-of-Famer, regardless of the low batting average and poor fielding.

Hopefully you are wrong, even by today's watered-down standards.

I'm amazed at what the Hall of Fame would apparently consist of if some of our members were allowed to fill it up. Who's next? Steve Balboni?

[packs]

How does Steve Balboni compare to Adam Dunn? All people are saying is that Dunn wasn't just some throw away player. He had special power and was a very productive player during his prime.

[Runscott]

lol.

They are exactly alike in every respect - size, stats, shoe size, even hat size. I think they even had the same 1st-grade teacher.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by Runscott

lol.

They are exactly alike in every respect - size, stats, shoe size, even hat size. I think they even had the same 1st-grade teacher.

Huh? Balboni is 3 inches shorter, 60 lbs lighter, and even their stats are far apart. I realize you were exaggerating, Scott, but as the previous poster pointed out, Dunn wasn't the person that everybody is making him out to be.