REA as the "State of the Hobby"

[e107collector]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

If REA results are a measure of the state of the hobby, the hobby looks to be in pretty good shape, especially the scarce Old Judge portion of it.

Jay,

I don't follow 19th century cards too much, but did the Deacon White portrait card misidentified as McGreachery, Mgr sell for around the price you expected?

Tony

[MattyC]

Also, there's a big issue in discussions like this that involve expectations. Each collector has his own expectations based on his own knowledge, experience, taste, desire, etc. It's impossible to define a hobby wide standard expectation. Many different collectors will value the same card very differently. So to one a card might over perform, to another that same card might be a disappointment.

[oldjudge]

Tony--it exceeded my expectations. Having said that, the card really had no price history for comparison.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Also, there's a big issue in discussions like this that involve expectations. Each collector has his own expectations based on his own knowledge, experience, taste, desire, etc. It's impossible to define a hobby wide standard expectation. Many different collectors will value the same card very differently. So to one a card might over perform, to another that same card might be a disappointment.

Absolutely. I paid around 5600 for the Tattoo Orbit 5 poster lot. Four of those exact same ones realized over $20k, 4 yrs ago. With super rare items it is difficult to say, on a per item basis, how healthy the hobby is from one auction result. But I think what can be said, when taken in it's totality, the REA auction did show the hobby is very healthy. I think it has to do with the stock market being up also. If we had lost 25% like we did a few years back, I am not sure so many people would have been as free-wheeling with their bids.

[MattyC]

As usual, Leon, you and I are on the same wavelength. I think on a very basic level that if multiple cards are being sold for six digits and up, that shows that the hobby is healthy. Does that mean that 70s and 80s cards or a low pop 1960's common will shatter historical prices when next offered? Of course not.

Ultimately though, a card can sell for X amount of dollars...

"Collector A" can say to himself, "What a steal! Wish I bid higher!"

"Collector B" can say, "I can't believe someone paid that much for that!"

"Collector C" of stamps, can say, "I wouldn't pay a penny for any card; they're all worthless to me."

Everybody has their own expectations and valuations. One man's trash is another man's treasure. I've never called girls back who are wives today.

Bottom line, all it ever takes is two who agree, to make something worth a great amount.

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Bottom line, all it ever takes is two who agree, to make something worth a great amount.

Only problem with this logic is when it comes time to sell.....ruh roh! Better hope you find the other guy who thinks it's still worth it or else you're the one absorbing a massive loss on the resale. It's awesome if you NEVER EVER plan on selling it.....not so awesome when you don't want it anymore

[MattyC]

Agreed, and it all depends on the item. If it was just two guys that drove it initially and no one new has decided to pursue the item in the intervening years, then yes, that could be a problem. But that dreaded scenario is specific to the case of two bidders and only those two interested parties all the way until resale. I'd venture that more often than not, with time, and with high-end items that are desirable to many, there will always be at least two to tango and make sure the price stays in the ballpark. The resale scenario also brings into account one's expectations. Some guys take the loss of even a dollar as a debacle. Others think breaking even is a triumph, when they have gotten such joy out of owning a cherished piece. So there are a lot of variables in play.

[sb1]

A couple of things to consider, baseball cards/memorabilia bought at auction are usually bought at full retail and the secondary resale market is not factored in the price, where as cars, antiques, etc are bought at wholesale at auction and then marked up for retail resale. The sportscard/memorabilia market can be a very thin market with many ebbs and flows, and not as transparent as the coin or stamp hobbies(who each have 100's to 1000's of collectors for every vintage baseball collector) with printed buy/sell spreads(of which the buy is often back of bid and only fully priced on very liquid issues).

I guess my point is, that this entire hobby can be a very difficult morass for many people to traverse. Many times you roll the dice or go with your gut, results are not guaranteed!

None of this should be taken as criticism on any parties or feeling of right or wrong, just putting out some thought provoking rhetoric. If you buy something and feel you paid what it was worth to you, you should be happy and enjoy it. If at some point you need or want to sell it, one can only hope that the investment holds it's own or appreciates. Some people buy with no intention of ever selling, others the horizon is much closer.

Oh, and to answer the question posed by the OP, the market appears to be very strong in most areas of pre-war, especially select 19th Century Memorabilia and Cards. Whether post-war high grade material will make a comeback remains to be seen. As in any collectible, rarity and condition will hold value or appreciate faster.

[1880nonsports]

when I made a quick calculation REA was making nearly 3,000. a minute in fees and recieving 15+ bids a minute in that time frame. The hobby seems pretty solid :-)

[barrysloate]

It certainly tells us something about the hobby, and prices do seem to be incredibly strong. Since REA generally deals in high end expensive lots, it doesn't tell us much about the meat and potatoes mainstream stuff. But it would be hard to walk away with any impression other than people with a lot of money are happy to spend it on quality baseball cards.