The future of rare backs/variations...

[poorlydrawncat]

Originally Posted by Bestdj777

I do not see there ever being the interest in these sets. And, I am pretty happy about that. The prices are insane for Venezuelans, and I don't think I'd ever be able to complete that run if they picked up in popularity.

Amen to that.

Originally Posted by steve B

I think Pete's right, the other sets won't really be examined as closely, and the varieties won't bring the sort of premiums some of the T206 varieties bring.

I think there are a few reasons.
T206 is massively popular. Partly because of the Wagner, partly because it's so available. And being a big set it can be collected many ways. subsets, all one back, teams, just Hofers.
It also has the couple things going for it that make it fascinating over a longer stretch. Even the 520 or 518 set has the appearance of being "easy" And with a decent budget it is. But it can also be challenging, especially on a budget or if you're somewhat picky about any aspect of the grade. Some are really tough with good registration and centering. Some are tough in anything over vg-ex.
Any of the subsets are challenging, but not impossible.

And that goes a long way for popularity.

I also really like the less popular sets. But I don't have much beyond a type card for most of them. Trying to collect them as sets I think would be a real challenge. Especially the Venezuelan cards. WWG seems available, but not as readily available as T206 or Goudeys.

There also hasn't been the effort to figure out the varieties in those sets. And that's possibly because those sets and T206 were originally looked at differently. T206 has always had varieties that were sort of the stars of a collection. Magie, the STL Demmitt and O'Hara, three tough cards that are variations.
None of the other sets really had any "big" variations. Yes, Goudey has a few diferent Ruths and Gehrigs, but they're different numbers so clearly not variations. And there isn't a huge difference in difficulty.
So for lack of a better term, looking for varieties was and is part of the culture of collecting T206, but isn't for other sets.

Some sets are simply too tough. If a needed card comes up once in maybe 5-10 years, most people become bored and move on to other things.
Oddly that's not always a problem in other hobbies. Some collectors of stamps might only ever have one chance certain items in their life. The stuff I specialize in right now has stuff I know I'll never own. Either because of cost or because it's both expensive and owned by someone about my age. The next time some of it will be sold might be 20 years from now.

Steve B

I think this sums it up pretty nicely. I've never found the T206 set at all appealing, and I'm really just trying to gain an understanding of why its legions of fans spend so much time analyzing it. This goes a long way in explaining it. But now I'm wondering whether people think the T206 variations craze is a bubble or if it's a reflection of how the hobby has changed (something along the lines of the emphasis on condition and rookie cards that arose 30-40 years ago and never went away)? And are there any existing sets besides T206 that you can see the variation craze infecting? Or is T206 just a totally unique set that can't really be compared to others?

In other words, do you see the T206 rare backs as a stable, if not rising, commodity or do you see the whole thing crashing at some point?

[ullmandds]

"In other words, do you see the T206 rare backs as a stable, if not rising, commodity or is there the potential for a lot of fluctuations or a crash of some sort? "

Yes! Just like anything else!

[poorlydrawncat]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

"In other words, do you see the T206 rare backs as a stable, if not rising, commodity or is there the potential for a lot of fluctuations or a crash of some sort? "

Yes! Just like anything else!

Sorry, obviously there's always potential. I've reworded it now. Now you have to pick a side!

[ullmandds]

Well...I DO see t206 as a unique set...unlike any other...do I see it continuing to rise and rise and rise...NO!

[smtjoy]

The sets you listed I just dont see them as the same set with different backs like T-206's.

I think you could compare the T206 rare backs with a set like the M101-4/5 and you see a lot of similarities. The tough backs in both took off a number of years ago but the M101 have been coming off some I think mainly from a few large finds. IMO the run up in T-206 rare backs has had more to do with a few advanced collectors going for master sets and the bidding gets very heated when the toughies they need pop up and that's driving up all the tough backs. I think many used to be happy with a set of 522, not the case right now.

You can see this in sets like E94/98 colors and OJ Poses, I just think there is a trend where some collectors are moving to master sets and it really drives up values in different ways.