The future of rare backs/variations...
 

Obviously T206 rare backs and variations have seen a huge increase in premiums over the past 10 years. I was wondering what the future holds for the rare variations from other (equally) popular sets. I'm talking mainly about World Wide Gum (Canadian Goudey), OPC (Canadian Topps) and Topps Venezuelan, but I'm sure there are others. I personally collect WWG and Topps Venezuelan because I appreciate the scarcity and love their more common counterparts to begin with. I've also found them to be undervalued; WWG is cheaper in a lot of cases. Plus who doesn't love reading awkward French translations about baseball?

Anyway, what do you think the future holds for these sets? Will they ever catch on as rare backs did in the T206 set?

Here are a few WWG's from my PC:

http://i.imgur.com/zSxb77f.png
http://i.imgur.com/L1ci8Oq.png

Unfortunately...I predict NO! While I agree with you...in that the allure of these cards is their relative scarcity as compared to their American counterparts...the mass majority does not seem to agree! No set will ever achieve the ridiculous analysis/paralysis...hyperinflation of T206...NONE!

What do you think it is about the T206 set that makes people analyze it the way they do? Do you think it's a passing fad or is it just the natural progression of the hobby as people run out of things to talk about and obsess over?

I can't think of another set anywhere near as esoteric as the T206 set has become.

I'd surmise that having the most famous card in the hobby in the set would be a good starting point to explaining the progression of the "success" of t206.

Totally true. Although I feel something like a Mickey Mantle Venezuelan should still be in more demand, given his popularity. Not that I'm complaining, I love being able to afford them :)

Sure...a venezuelan MM would be very desirable to a hardcore yankee/mickey mantle collector...but to anyone else...not so much!

If T206 were only issued with 1 brand/type of cigarette...it's popularity would not come close to what it is now.

That's an interesting thought.

If Burdick hadn't classified them as one set there wouldn't be as much interest.

Agreed. Personally, I would love to own all of the Venezuelan Mantles (3 short right now), but I believe I am in the minority. I don't view the Venezuelans as a variety but rather a separate set, and I think most others agree. So, people working on a run of Topps Mantle cards do not need to get the Venezuelan versions to complete their sets. And, if you don't need it, why spent PSA 8 U.S. Topps prices on a Venezuelan card that would grade authentic or PSA 1 at best? There just isn't the incentive.

Plus, as an aside, I believe there are a substantial number of casual collectors that are unaware there was even a set produced in Venezuela. I got into a discussion with one of the employees at my local baseball card shop, and he had no clue about the set either.

I do not see there ever being the interest in these sets. And, I am pretty happy about that. The prices are insane for Venezuelans, and I don't think I'd ever be able to complete that run if they picked up in popularity.

I agree that Burdick is to blame.

I never understood why T206 should all be in one set, yet things like the MSA discs of the 1970's are all separate issues.

to hell with canada...blame Burdick!!!

I think Pete's right, the other sets won't really be examined as closely, and the varieties won't bring the sort of premiums some of the T206 varieties bring.

I think there are a few reasons.
T206 is massively popular. Partly because of the Wagner, partly because it's so available. And being a big set it can be collected many ways. subsets, all one back, teams, just Hofers.
It also has the couple things going for it that make it fascinating over a longer stretch. Even the 520 or 518 set has the appearance of being "easy" And with a decent budget it is. But it can also be challenging, especially on a budget or if you're somewhat picky about any aspect of the grade. Some are really tough with good registration and centering. Some are tough in anything over vg-ex.
Any of the subsets are challenging, but not impossible.

And that goes a long way for popularity.

I also really like the less popular sets. But I don't have much beyond a type card for most of them. Trying to collect them as sets I think would be a real challenge. Especially the Venezuelan cards. WWG seems available, but not as readily available as T206 or Goudeys.

There also hasn't been the effort to figure out the varieties in those sets. And that's possibly because those sets and T206 were originally looked at differently. T206 has always had varieties that were sort of the stars of a collection. Magie, the STL Demmitt and O'Hara, three tough cards that are variations.
None of the other sets really had any "big" variations. Yes, Goudey has a few diferent Ruths and Gehrigs, but they're different numbers so clearly not variations. And there isn't a huge difference in difficulty.
So for lack of a better term, looking for varieties was and is part of the culture of collecting T206, but isn't for other sets.

Some sets are simply too tough. If a needed card comes up once in maybe 5-10 years, most people become bored and move on to other things.
Oddly that's not always a problem in other hobbies. Some collectors of stamps might only ever have one chance certain items in their life. The stuff I specialize in right now has stuff I know I'll never own. Either because of cost or because it's both expensive and owned by someone about my age. The next time some of it will be sold might be 20 years from now.

Steve B

Amen to that.

I think this sums it up pretty nicely. I've never found the T206 set at all appealing, and I'm really just trying to gain an understanding of why its legions of fans spend so much time analyzing it. This goes a long way in explaining it. But now I'm wondering whether people think the T206 variations craze is a bubble or if it's a reflection of how the hobby has changed (something along the lines of the emphasis on condition and rookie cards that arose 30-40 years ago and never went away)? And are there any existing sets besides T206 that you can see the variation craze infecting? Or is T206 just a totally unique set that can't really be compared to others?

In other words, do you see the T206 rare backs as a stable, if not rising, commodity or do you see the whole thing crashing at some point?

"In other words, do you see the T206 rare backs as a stable, if not rising, commodity or is there the potential for a lot of fluctuations or a crash of some sort? "

Yes! Just like anything else!

Sorry, obviously there's always potential. I've reworded it now. Now you have to pick a side!

Well...I DO see t206 as a unique set...unlike any other...do I see it continuing to rise and rise and rise...NO!

The sets you listed I just dont see them as the same set with different backs like T-206's.

I think you could compare the T206 rare backs with a set like the M101-4/5 and you see a lot of similarities. The tough backs in both took off a number of years ago but the M101 have been coming off some I think mainly from a few large finds. IMO the run up in T-206 rare backs has had more to do with a few advanced collectors going for master sets and the bidding gets very heated when the toughies they need pop up and that's driving up all the tough backs. I think many used to be happy with a set of 522, not the case right now.

You can see this in sets like E94/98 colors and OJ Poses, I just think there is a trend where some collectors are moving to master sets and it really drives up values in different ways.

I see the prices falling a bit as older collectors die off.

I wouldn't say it's the older guys driving the prices on these...lot of young blood in these prices.....

Burdick passed away in 1963. He didn't have much to say about 1970s sets.

lol.:d

We will see.

The old guys are selling them to the young guys!

Ok I'm running to the woodshed after this

IMO it is the only reason people contemplate chasing that set. Too many variations, too many backs and just about impossible to "complete" unless you have a disposable 400k for a Wagner. So you have the "Set" minus the Big Four. I just wish I could see the face of their friends when they share their collection

"Look at my set, it is the one with the famous Honus Wagner"

"Wow that's incredible. I'd love to see your Honus Wagner?"

"I don't have a Wagner"

"Oh nice cards. Got any beer?"

As far as backs, I think tough ones will be sought out, but I think they are close to their peak. I think t205 backs have more upside :)

LOL any names on your death pool we should be aware of? :D

Sorry But I wouldn't be wearing shades to prepare for the future of t205backs.:confused:

Hahaha very true. I have made a number of purchases from you old guys.

The average age on the board is just about 42 yrs old......I doubt we will all die off in the next few years with the average life span in the US being about 80 yrs old.

We are all in the death pool.

Some of us are in the deep end and can't swim...

Cheers,
Blair

Hahaha.....good one.

+1

I bet some of those old cards are weighing you down.

I know right, now is the time to save their lives! Give Alex and myself all of your vintage cards quickly! It's never too late! We will gladly help you guys stay afloat! :D

funny. My reaction to his post was " is that a threat?"

I see it's aaaall been worked out now. :)

And to answer the OP, I don't remember what the question was. Too many Bud Dry's tonight.

Exactly. Just trying to help out my fellow board members. 8)

Often
 

as collectors become more advanced they frequently move to rarer and less often seen material.

No need to run, that was almost exactly the reaction to my collecting that some of my friends had years ago.

More like

"what sets have you completed?"
"none, there are too many and the coolest ones are way too expensive"
"................oh, .......................So , ummmmm you're not really serious about it right?"

That's when I switched to showing a range of cards first and putting them into the context of their time to show the coolness. The ones that got it are the ones I still hang out with. Not because of that, but more the overall outlook has made it work out that way.

I used to keep track of how many cards etc I had that were tougher than the Wagner, but obviously worth far less. I don't bother anymore. (If only rarity was all there was to price! )

When I saw a Wagner in person, the reflected glow lasted all of about 30 seconds. The I realized it was a worn, wrinkled T206 with writing. One that would cost someone more than what many people my age made in a year. And more than every car I'd owned up to that point put together. Enough for a very nice downpayment on a house.

Then I wandered off to look at the stuff I could actually buy that I'd probably enjoy just as much.

Steve B

You can kind of; sort of; blame me for those carousel discs, etc. When back in the day I was editing the Beckett Almanac of Baseball Cards and Collectibles; a couple dealers asked for those cards to be broken out by back. Since that was easier for everyone then multiplier and easy to do in our system, voila all those 70's disc sets were created. T-206 no as easy.

Rich

Agreed

And it's a mixed blessing too :)

+1. While not necessarily bearing any relation to the sets originally mentioned in this post (which I would not categorize as true variations), I see the demand for true, rare variations growing in much the same manner as they did in coins. In that hobby, it took decades for collectors of a series to even be concerned with different mint-marks, and once that took hold, the scarcest among them rose rather consistently in value. After that, variations such as over-stamped dates and doubled dies (1955 S pennies) became much in demand, rising to stratospheric prices in popular series. I would expect rare-back HOF'ers in the T206 to especially continue to be in great demand, and other scarce to rare variations (1955 Exhibit Postcard backs? Mantle? Mays? 1935 Diamond Stars "Greenburg" error--probably one of the scarcest nationally distributed cards of the '30's) might just have similar potential. The collecting mindset simply doesn't vary that much with the item being collected. What happened in coins foreshadows what will continue to occur with baseball cards. Note that a high-grade 1990 Topps Frank Thomas no-name on front (some would not consider this a true variation, as it arose from a problem occurring during the printing process, but I think this is a distinction without a difference) recently sold for nearly $3,000 just after his popularity spiked with his election to the hall--that card could have been purchased for $600-$800 3-4 years ago. Demand for rare variations is here to stay,although it may be cyclical, with its price going through up and down periods,where the subject has less significance and/or is in greater supply, instead of nearly linear, rising rather steadily in value, where the significance and/or rarity of the card is great.

Best to all,

Larry