Super Bowl - in-depth analysis

[steve B]

That sounds about right.

The Denver lines looked great against the Patriots. Both offense and defense.
Manning wasn't under any real pressure all game, and there were a few big plays where the Denver line got right in on Brady.

If they do the same sort of thing against Seattle it will be a tough game to win.

I didn't realize until this weeks SI that Denver had lost almost as many starters as New England.

Steve B

[Runscott]

I think you are right - it's all about how both lines perform for each team. When you have two smart quarterbacks who probably won't make any stupid throws, it's all about the lines allowing/stopping them from doing what they need to do. I think Seattle can stop the running game and put pressure on the Manning, both at the same time. I think Denver has to pick Lynch or Wilson, but can't negate both. And even if they stop one of them, you know Carroll's going to run the ball the entire game, so at some point things have to open up - you just have to keep Manning off the field so that your D stays fresh.

[steve B]

You might know this already - What Patriots coach had the best winning percentage before Bellichick?

Steve B

[itjclarke]

I haven't watched much of the Broncos this year. I think they probably do have a very good O-line, but I also think Peyton makes all his O-lines look good because he always gets rid of the ball on time... and additionally is so good at spotting a blitz pre-snap and adjusting his protections, routes, etc. That said, Seattle (like the Niners) doesn't blitz that much, usually relying on good pressure from their front four, so we may not see many of those "Peyton burns the blitz" chances. I think a huge key will be how Seattle DBs d-up on Denver's receivers. Those DBs are absolute beasts! If they can take away some of the quick throws by holding guys up at the line, knocking them off routes, it could throw the old man out of rhythm, and Seattle's front four will "get pressure" by default (not that they won't be already). One of the most impressive guys I've seen is that Kam Chancellor. As SS he absolutely takes any tight end out of the game, and is a pure beast in run support. The hit he put on Vernon Davis (a total physcical specimen in his own right) is the nastiest I've ever seen in person... and he's also the guy (all 240 lb) that caught Kaep from behind on his long run!! He may be my favorite Seahawk (when is he a free agent?????)... and even as a Niner fan, I really like and respect many of their players (Marshawn like a Frank Gore- the true football player, Russell Wilson- the perfect leader, Baldwin & Kearse- they just make plays, even Sherman- amazing athleticism and ball skills and a really smart guys who's probably more than quadrupled his current salary through endorsement by acting like a total a-hole... he will become the "I'm not a role model" of this generation).

Peyton also throws a lot of lofty wobblers. I think arm strength is one of the most overrated things in scouting QBs, and when you throw early/on time, you can get away with floaters... but in this case- with possible bad weather, and DBs that ALWAYS seem to be right there to contest the throw, throwing tight lasers is a premium.

After watching the Niners lose again in Seattle, I thought there was no way Seattle loses this Sunday. As the days have gone by though, I've been more and more of the mind that Peyton will find a way to get something done. I still think Seattle wins, but in my mind the gap is smaller than it was a week ago. It's gonna be a great game.

(please pardon my ramble... I just love me some football!)

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by itjclarke

As the days have gone by though, I've been more and more of the mind that Peyton will find a way to get something done. I still think Seattle wins, but in my mind the gap is smaller than it was a week ago. It's gonna be a great game.

(please pardon my ramble... I just love me some football!)

Peyton is certainly the sentimental favorite, but I'm not sure why so many people are thinking that he'll "find a way to get something done". He hasn't really shown that so much in the past. He's great, but I don't think he has enough personal magic to win this one.

I love me some football also - surprised there is so little interest in the Super Bowl among vintage card collectors. I'm thinking 'sports fan' and 'card collector' aren't as closely associated as I thought they were, not that there's anything wrong with that.

Still not sure if I care who wins the game, but it should be a heckuva game.

[itjclarke]

Hey, I'm with you also Scott. After watching the Seahwks 3 times this year, I was totally convinced they'd break Peyton in half because he'd get stuck holding the ball while he receivers are being bumped off their quick/timed routes. That said, I do think Peyton and their O will probably be more effective than I'd given them credit for originally/right after NFC Champ game (not for any reason other than he's good), but for the other reasons I mention, think he could be in for a tough day... And I still think the Hawks take it.

Regardless, gonna be a great game for sure! Have fun watching up their in Seattle.

[Runscott]

I just re-watched the AFC Championship game. What I'm seeing is that New England was doing almost nothing to hold up the receivers at the line. So they cover their men - Manning hits his back coming out of the backfield or has the slot timing pattern.

[itjclarke]

Originally Posted by drmondobueno

Thought the game was going to be close. Manning showed zero arm strength, I mean zero. There appeared to be no wind, so no excuses there. Thought at first I was just reading into all the ducks comments, but after watching Wilson zipping fastballs, I saw a quarterback in orange who threw the ball with no authority. None. You want to make a really good defensive team look even better? Throw nothing but short and slot passes with no velocity, let the backs shorten the field even further. Manning looked really weak. As far as defensive pressure, it was there, but was he knocked down, sacked? Balls were deflected, etc., but he only threw the ball deep, what, twice? A D-back dream.

Scoreboard, Seattle.

Originally Posted by itjclarke

... I think a huge key will be how Seattle DBs d-up on Denver's receivers. Those DBs are absolute beasts! If they can take away some of the quick throws by holding guys up at the line, knocking them off routes, it could throw the old man out of rhythm, and Seattle's front four will "get pressure" by default (not that they won't be already). One of the most impressive guys I've seen is that Kam Chancellor. As SS he absolutely takes any tight end out of the game, and is a pure beast in run support...

Peyton also throws a lot of lofty wobblers. I think arm strength is one of the most overrated things in scouting QBs, and when you throw early/on time, you can get away with floaters... but in this case- with possible bad weather, and DBs that ALWAYS seem to be right there to contest the throw, throwing tight lasers is a premium.

I'm not usually one to quote myself, but Peyton's total lack of velocity absolutely comes into play when you're playing a ball hawking secondary that is always close to the receiver. Kaepernick throws the ball harder possibly than any QB ever clocked and his completions v the Seahawks need that juice. When Marino threw for 5000, he was constantly pushing the ball down field to the Marks Bros... Peyton's 5000 probably involved about half that or less in actual yardage thrown... and that stuff doesn't work to well when you face a secondary that doesn't miss tackles.

[kcohen]

My in-depth analysis? Seattle by 35.

[familytoad]

My earlier points came true:

Defense wins Championships.

Manning isn't effective when under pressure...although he wasn't sacked he was hurried on a bunch of important downs...notice that the Defense allowed those weak 4 yd passes all day long and for some reason that seemed to make the Broncos happy

A perfectly executed win by Seattle without a huge statistical game from the 'Hawks...

Yep...we got this one!!

[steve B]

Originally Posted by steve B

You might know this already - What Patriots coach had the best winning percentage before Bellichick?

Steve B

Wow, no takers on that question?

It's Pete Carroll.

[itjclarke]

Didn't see that but think I'd have gotten it eventually. He was fired with a winning record.

As a Pats fan, I hope you appreciate No Cal's contribution to your squad.. Julian Edelman (possibly my favorite current NFLer) graduated from my alma mater Woodside (RWC, CA)... and one Tom Brady was a mid-nineties legend, and former opponent of mine (known as Tommy Brady) from San Mateo.

While on topic, that little baddass Pedroia is also a No Cal-er

[itjclarke]

This game so far re-affirms a few beliefs of mine-
-- football is still football, not fantasy football (and Russell Wilson, Baldwin/Kearse and Co, though not fantasy darlings are true football players/play makers).
-- a great defense (like truly great pitching) is the best equalizer (and Kam Chancellor and those like him make the men on the other side of the ball look like boys).
-- the two best teams in the league played two weeks ago in Seattle

... still a half to play, during which a lot of things can happen. Regardless of what happens though, I CANNOT WAIT for the 2014 season and a chance at 2 (maybe 3) more shots against Seattle. It's gonna be amazing out in the NFC west come next year. Tough to watch this game though, because I think the Niners and D would be beating up on them too.

Originally Posted by steve B

Wow, no takers on that question?

It's Pete Carroll.

Are you sure? I can think of three Patriots coaches with more than Carroll's 26 wins; Bill Parcells, Raymond Berry (took them to the '84 SB), and Chuck Fairbanks (thought he coached those Plunkett/Grogan-led teams in 70's). Fairbanks might have been with the BOSTON Patriots, I don't know.

[Leon]

Since it's Super Bowl day I moved this from the correct, water cooler forum, to the front page so more folks will see it. I can barely tell you the teams playing but know I am in the minority. Have fun....

[2dueces]

Originally Posted by Leon

Since it's Super Bowl day I moved this from the correct, water cooler forum, to the front page so more folks will see it. I can barely tell you the teams playing but know I am in the minority. Have fun....

Geez Leon, do you live under a rock? 15 minutes can save you 15% on car insurance.

[z28jd]

Originally Posted by Leon

Since it's Super Bowl day I moved this from the correct, water cooler forum, to the front page so more folks will see it. I can barely tell you the teams playing but know I am in the minority. Have fun....

I could give a rat's butt about the game, although I do want to know the final score for one reason only. The Simpsons had a 2005 show in which they had the Broncos beating the Seahawks in the Super Bowl by a 19-14 score. So that is exactly what I'm rooting for and ANYTHING else will be a disappointment, including me being forced to watch it

[steve B]

Originally Posted by pariah1107

Are you sure? I can think of three Patriots coaches with more than Carroll's 26 wins; Bill Parcells, Raymond Berry (took them to the '84 SB), and Chuck Fairbanks (thought he coached those Plunkett/Grogan-led teams in 70's). Fairbanks might have been with the BOSTON Patriots, I don't know.

Based on wins he's a bit farther down, but by winning percentage it's

Bellichick 163-61 .728
Carroll 27-21 .562
Berry 48-39 .551
Meyer 18-15 .545
Fairbanks 46-39 .541
Holovak 52-46-9 .528
Parcells 32-32 .500
Erhardt 21-28 .428
Saban 7-12 .368
Mazur 9-21 .300
MacPherson 8-24 .250
Rush 5-16 .238
Bengston 1-4 .200
Rust 1-15 .062

To be fair to Parcells he inherited a truly awful team.

Miscelaneous semi related stuff

Mike Holovak was part of a sporting goods store that was on the corner of the turn into the back parking lot of my High school. Pretty neat place that carried pro level stuff for all four major sports.

Tom Yewcic who played for the Patriots and one game for the Tigers had a son who was in my class in school. And also a fantastic athlete.

And Joe Bellino had a coffee/donut shop about a mile away from school Just over the Arlington/Lexington town line.

Steve B

[Runscott]

Wow, now we know why Rust never sleeps.