Super Bowl - in-depth analysis

[itjclarke]

I haven't watched much of the Broncos this year. I think they probably do have a very good O-line, but I also think Peyton makes all his O-lines look good because he always gets rid of the ball on time... and additionally is so good at spotting a blitz pre-snap and adjusting his protections, routes, etc. That said, Seattle (like the Niners) doesn't blitz that much, usually relying on good pressure from their front four, so we may not see many of those "Peyton burns the blitz" chances. I think a huge key will be how Seattle DBs d-up on Denver's receivers. Those DBs are absolute beasts! If they can take away some of the quick throws by holding guys up at the line, knocking them off routes, it could throw the old man out of rhythm, and Seattle's front four will "get pressure" by default (not that they won't be already). One of the most impressive guys I've seen is that Kam Chancellor. As SS he absolutely takes any tight end out of the game, and is a pure beast in run support. The hit he put on Vernon Davis (a total physcical specimen in his own right) is the nastiest I've ever seen in person... and he's also the guy (all 240 lb) that caught Kaep from behind on his long run!! He may be my favorite Seahawk (when is he a free agent?????)... and even as a Niner fan, I really like and respect many of their players (Marshawn like a Frank Gore- the true football player, Russell Wilson- the perfect leader, Baldwin & Kearse- they just make plays, even Sherman- amazing athleticism and ball skills and a really smart guys who's probably more than quadrupled his current salary through endorsement by acting like a total a-hole... he will become the "I'm not a role model" of this generation).

Peyton also throws a lot of lofty wobblers. I think arm strength is one of the most overrated things in scouting QBs, and when you throw early/on time, you can get away with floaters... but in this case- with possible bad weather, and DBs that ALWAYS seem to be right there to contest the throw, throwing tight lasers is a premium.

After watching the Niners lose again in Seattle, I thought there was no way Seattle loses this Sunday. As the days have gone by though, I've been more and more of the mind that Peyton will find a way to get something done. I still think Seattle wins, but in my mind the gap is smaller than it was a week ago. It's gonna be a great game.

(please pardon my ramble... I just love me some football!)

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by itjclarke

As the days have gone by though, I've been more and more of the mind that Peyton will find a way to get something done. I still think Seattle wins, but in my mind the gap is smaller than it was a week ago. It's gonna be a great game.

(please pardon my ramble... I just love me some football!)

Peyton is certainly the sentimental favorite, but I'm not sure why so many people are thinking that he'll "find a way to get something done". He hasn't really shown that so much in the past. He's great, but I don't think he has enough personal magic to win this one.

I love me some football also - surprised there is so little interest in the Super Bowl among vintage card collectors. I'm thinking 'sports fan' and 'card collector' aren't as closely associated as I thought they were, not that there's anything wrong with that.

Still not sure if I care who wins the game, but it should be a heckuva game.

[itjclarke]

Hey, I'm with you also Scott. After watching the Seahwks 3 times this year, I was totally convinced they'd break Peyton in half because he'd get stuck holding the ball while he receivers are being bumped off their quick/timed routes. That said, I do think Peyton and their O will probably be more effective than I'd given them credit for originally/right after NFC Champ game (not for any reason other than he's good), but for the other reasons I mention, think he could be in for a tough day... And I still think the Hawks take it.

Regardless, gonna be a great game for sure! Have fun watching up their in Seattle.

[Runscott]

I just re-watched the AFC Championship game. What I'm seeing is that New England was doing almost nothing to hold up the receivers at the line. So they cover their men - Manning hits his back coming out of the backfield or has the slot timing pattern.

[itjclarke]

Originally Posted by drmondobueno

Thought the game was going to be close. Manning showed zero arm strength, I mean zero. There appeared to be no wind, so no excuses there. Thought at first I was just reading into all the ducks comments, but after watching Wilson zipping fastballs, I saw a quarterback in orange who threw the ball with no authority. None. You want to make a really good defensive team look even better? Throw nothing but short and slot passes with no velocity, let the backs shorten the field even further. Manning looked really weak. As far as defensive pressure, it was there, but was he knocked down, sacked? Balls were deflected, etc., but he only threw the ball deep, what, twice? A D-back dream.

Scoreboard, Seattle.

Originally Posted by itjclarke

... I think a huge key will be how Seattle DBs d-up on Denver's receivers. Those DBs are absolute beasts! If they can take away some of the quick throws by holding guys up at the line, knocking them off routes, it could throw the old man out of rhythm, and Seattle's front four will "get pressure" by default (not that they won't be already). One of the most impressive guys I've seen is that Kam Chancellor. As SS he absolutely takes any tight end out of the game, and is a pure beast in run support...

Peyton also throws a lot of lofty wobblers. I think arm strength is one of the most overrated things in scouting QBs, and when you throw early/on time, you can get away with floaters... but in this case- with possible bad weather, and DBs that ALWAYS seem to be right there to contest the throw, throwing tight lasers is a premium.

I'm not usually one to quote myself, but Peyton's total lack of velocity absolutely comes into play when you're playing a ball hawking secondary that is always close to the receiver. Kaepernick throws the ball harder possibly than any QB ever clocked and his completions v the Seahawks need that juice. When Marino threw for 5000, he was constantly pushing the ball down field to the Marks Bros... Peyton's 5000 probably involved about half that or less in actual yardage thrown... and that stuff doesn't work to well when you face a secondary that doesn't miss tackles.

[kcohen]

My in-depth analysis? Seattle by 35.

[familytoad]

My earlier points came true:

Defense wins Championships.

Manning isn't effective when under pressure...although he wasn't sacked he was hurried on a bunch of important downs...notice that the Defense allowed those weak 4 yd passes all day long and for some reason that seemed to make the Broncos happy

A perfectly executed win by Seattle without a huge statistical game from the 'Hawks...

Yep...we got this one!!

[itjclarke]

Originally Posted by familytoad

...although he wasn't sacked he was hurried on a bunch of important downs...notice that the Defense allowed those weak 4 yd passes all day long and for some reason that seemed to make the Broncos happy

Think Seattle does it almost in reverse.. usually you see pressure from the defensive front forcing errant throws, interceptions, etc.. and when a QB has time, a secondary may be exposed. Seattle's secondary is so good that they force a QB to hold the ball (consistently knocking guys off their underneath routes and completely taking away over the top throws), and thus QB pressure comes from having nowhere to go to with the ball.

This may be best all around secondary I've ever seen (cover, bump/fight, tackle, strip, and ball skills)... though I was too young to really remember watching the young (1981 version) of the great Niner secondary of Wright/Williamson/Hicks/Lott.. or those 70's Raiders groups.

[familytoad]

Ian, I agree with you about the pressure being aided by the strong secondary play...no where to throw!
Now he was able to set a SB record for completions, but the defense obviously could care less about 4 yd completions and the chance to pop the receiver a second after the catch.
Seattle totally dominated in every aspect. I loved it all!

[Runscott]

well, that's that. Hopefully when I get back from dinner, someone will have bumped the John Rogers/Peter Nash thread back up to it's rightful place.

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by itjclarke

Think Seattle does it almost in reverse.. usually you see pressure from the defensive front forcing errant throws, interceptions, etc.. and when a QB has time, a secondary may be exposed. Seattle's secondary is so good that they force a QB to hold the ball (consistently knocking guys off their underneath routes and completely taking away over the top throws), and thus QB pressure comes from having nowhere to go to with the ball.

This may be best all around secondary I've ever seen (cover, bump/fight, tackle, strip, and ball skills)... though I was too young to really remember watching the young (1981 version) of the great Niner secondary of Wright/Williamson/Hicks/Lott.. or those 70's Raiders groups.

Completely agree Ian, I would honestly rank this secondary at the very top with the 70's Raiders group as the two best ever. The Assassin, Atkinson, old man Willie and later Lester Hayes have company.

[freakhappy]

Manning's velocity is not what it used to be, but let's give credit fully where it is due and that is to the Seahawks....they totally dominated this game and it had nothing to do with Peyton Manning's lack of this or that. Peyton Manning attempted to do what he did all year long, but the Seahawk's defense was way too stingy to let that happen. They have the #1 pass defense for a reason and it showed up ready to go tonight.

I know it doesn't matter that Manning set a record in the game, but he still completed a boatload of passes...so what was the difference again? The Seahawks defense made several plays resulting in a lot of turnovers and points. So to throw Manning on the ground and kick dirt on him is clearly the wrong way to view how this game panned out.

The Seahawks were the better team tonight and the Broncos were not prepared for them. It's weird...it's still hard to fathom the final score. I've never seen such a prolific team so dominated like the Broncos were tonight...just crazy!

[drmondobueno]

Originally Posted by MyGuyTy

Completely agree Ian, I would honestly rank this secondary at the very top with the 70's Raiders group as the two best ever. The Assassin, Atkinson, old man Willie and later Lester Hayes have company.

I was a fan of this Raider defense, a super solid group of dominant hard hitting ballhawking backs. But this Seattle group is a deeper group and, in my opinion, better defenders in the air and just as aggressive with the hits.