T205 Minor League Replacement Research

[obcmac]

I still don't buy the list with Wallace no cap on there. Here are the population totals (PSA I believe) from the last time I looked:

1. Barger Full B (158)
2. Bender (227)
3. Bresnahan Mouth Closed (220)
4. Camnitz (124)
5. Cobb (456)
6. Kroh (116)
7. Oldring (116)
8. Smith (124)
9. Street (136)
10. Titus (145)
11. Wallace No Cap** (combined 72/60)...(note 1 line is much harder, so 1:1 ratio probably indicates either regrading or biased sampling)
12. Wilson

 (116)

Before you dismiss population numbers, you will see that the total range of cards that are known to be printed together (ML'ers)...show remarkable similarity in population numbers (79-95 in my sample)

Now, if you look at potential pose variations, you see the following:
Barger (partial) 78
Bresnahan (open) 86
Collins (open) 110
Harmon (left) 74
Ford (black/white) 83/85
Shean/Graham variations also fall within the range.

So we have the pose variations line up nicely...so the question is...does the Wallace belong with the other group based on back analysis alone, or should it belong with the pose variation group? When you consider HOF bias in grading, as well as some variation bias, inflated relative population of the 1 line back, I think the combined population of the Wallace no cap is most similar to the pose variations group.

I believe that when you consider the populations, known relative difficulties, and stylistic matching, it's much more likely that the Wallace no cap should be grouped with pose variations rather that the group proposed by Andrew.

Would any dedicated T205 guy suggest a Bresnahan Mouth closed is in the same class as the Wallace based on experience?

The problem with back analysis is that any grouping of sheets can be printed with any back. The ultra rare seemingly common backs suggest that leftover sheets were used when changing the back advertising...resulting in just a few cards with these particular backs. Overall I feel like the evidence on the front of the cards is more convincing for this reason...though I enjoy hearing the theory on why the backs suggest another theory.

Mac