T205 Minor League Replacement Research

[obcmac]

Andrew,

First of all, it's great to see some discussion of the t205's.

I don't see any way that the Wallace no cap and bresnahan closed can be in the same class of cards. The style of the fronts and the population numbers both suggest that the grouping of pose variations (Barger partial, Bresnahan open, Collins open, Wallace no cap...etc) are all from the same series.

Are there cards other than the Wallace that fit the back pattern?

Mac

[T205 GB]

Originally Posted by obcmac

Andrew,

First of all, it's great to see some discussion of the t205's.

I don't see any way that the Wallace no cap and bresnahan closed can be in the same class of cards. The style of the fronts and the population numbers both suggest that the grouping of pose variations (Barger partial, Bresnahan open, Collins open, Wallace no cap...etc) are all from the same series.

Are there cards other than the Wallace that fit the back pattern?

Mac

Wallace one line and the 2 line together make the back match. Wallace is found with all the correct backs to also have an AB possible. We know Wallace no cap was an error that was corrected in the print run so using both of them together make the match possible. Without a sheet or even a strip it's hard to say how they were printed.

In the last 4 yrs I have found with the help of a few guys that our thoughts about print patterns have flaws. Joss is a DP print side by side on Pied 25 and Collins open mouth is a quad print for the PB run found as a block of 4. With that being said it is possible that some cards were just printed in lesser quantities than others. Just so much we don't know about the 205's. That's the great thing about miscuts that have been found.

[obcmac]

It would be interesting to see all the data on miscuts grouped by back category. It seems many of the apparent SP's were multiple prints on specific sheets, but with lower overall population numbers.

I don't know if you'd agree....but I thought that most cards that have a different player next to them (top or bottom) seem to fall in the mid-to-high population levels and any player with the same player next to them, fell in the low ranges. This would indicate a significantly different approach between series.

I worry about any theory that doesn't account for population differences. Bresnahan is much much easier than Wallace...and he comes with the same back set, yet there is a big population difference. Double print in the same group is always a possibility, but not a satisfying one. Stuff to think about I guess.

Keep the theories and discussion going!

[T205 GB]

Pop reports are very inaccurate. I have seen on some cards such as Joss were there are just as many floating around raw as there are graded. Probably a bit more graded but I would say that an accurate count is not feasible without tons and tons of tracking and verification of individual cards.

The miscuts are few and most have Pied 25 backs. There are at least 12 PB backs I know of and a few SC. The PB don't give enough of the other card to determine the next but they are top to bottom miscuts and don't appear to have the same cards repeating.

Wallace is a highly collected variation and would be much scarcer because of this. Bresnahan is very possible to have been triple printed on a sheet accounting for the amount also. The 205 set is a very odd grouping and without data or a sheet/strips being found we can only try to prove our theories based on what research we can do.

[T205 GB]

Anyone else have opinions or thoughts on this. Would like more feedback or questions

[steve B]

I haven't looked at the population numbers for T205s.

But for what it might be worth, I have been looking at the numbers for T206 in as much detail as I can.

What I've found is that each individual HOF card is approximately double the population of a particular common. Not precisely since there's a lot of variance, but if a common in say P150 has 40 examples most HOFers with the same back will be around 80 examples. Some of the known rarities are more skewed towards being graded, for SGC the Magie is very nearly as common as Magee.

I'd think that the 2:1 ratio for HOF vs common would hold for T205 as well, and I'd expect the SPs and other tough cards to be graded much more often, depending on the percieved difficulty and value.

The replacement theory you have sounds entirely plausible. I haven't looked at the lists etc to be able to comment beyond that.

Steve B

[Rob D.]

Nevermind. Better to let the experts hash this out.