What the future holds in the autograph industry

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by Deertick

Despite the protestations of some to the contrary, they get it right most of the time. At least in baseball.

I haven't heard anyone say that the TPA's get it wrong most of the time. The complaint is that getting it right "most of the time" is not good enough. If "most of the time" is good enough for you, you are definitely in the majority, so I'm not knocking you. Just saying - I'd like to see them do better, and I'm sure they could.

[Scott Garner]

Originally Posted by Runscott

I haven't heard anyone say that the TPA's get it wrong most of the time. The complaint is that getting it right "most of the time" is not good enough. If "most of the time" is good enough for you, you are definitely in the majority, so I'm not knocking you. Just saying - I'd like to see them do better, and I'm sure they could.

+1

[barrysloate]

I've never collected autographs, and never had much of an interest in them. But I do read most of the autograph threads on this board. I imagine people will continue collecting autographs, and would guess that those collectors will enjoy what they are doing. That said, I've never seen a more depressing hobby or state of affairs than what transpires on Net54.

The amount of infighting among collectors and dealers is a little hard to believe. It seems like you guys really don't like each other. And the number of collectors who get ripped off buying bad stuff is truly alarming. This end of the hobby has a simply dreadful image. It looks like the place all the scammers and con men go to make a living.

If you want to see a healthy future, something has to be done. If it reaches the point where nobody can agree on whether or not a Babe Ruth signature is good or bad, then I would say the future does not look all that bright. The number of new collectors entering will grow smaller.

[Frozen in Time]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I've never collected autographs, and never had much of an interest in them. But I do read most of the autograph threads on this board. I imagine people will continue collecting autographs, and would guess that those collectors will enjoy what they are doing. That said, I've never seen a more depressing hobby or state of affairs than what transpires on Net54.

The amount of infighting among collectors and dealers is a little hard to believe. It seems like you guys really don't like each other. And the number of collectors who get ripped off buying bad stuff is truly alarming. This end of the hobby has a simply dreadful image. It looks like the place all the scammers and con men go to make a living.

If you want to see a healthy future, something has to be done. If it reaches the point where nobody can agree on whether or not a Babe Ruth signature is good or bad, then I would say the future does not look all that bright. The number of new collectors entering will grow smaller.

As someone who does not really collect autographs, I tend to agree with what Barry has stated. I have strayed from the memorabilia threads recently and have already voiced my opinion on the amount of infighting, personal attacks and typical lack of real evidence (a few exceptions) that have characterized most of the latest Ruth-related threads. This contrasts with the much more civil and educational content of many of the threads (mostly vintage photos) that I previously participated in.

Whereas I, and I assume many of you, would love to have an authentic Ruth autograph in my/your collection, that will simply never be the case for me because I would never be certain it was authentic. I take Jim's warning concerning the abilities of the master forgers very seriously.

It seems to me that the only way to avoid the subjectiveness and human error associated with the determination of authenticity both for collectors and TPG companies (here I'm primarily talking about ball players that are deceased and played in the early decades of the 1900's) is some type of "scientific" analysis.

For example, with all of the tools now available it would seem to me that testing for the relative age (degradation) of the item signed (paper, photo, ball) and comparison with similar properties of the writing medium (ink) should be able to unequivocally determine if the auto was put down much later than the item signed. I would assume that forensic departments in the FBI/CIA may already have and applied this type of technology - so it may already be available.

Whatever that technology is/ will be, the main point is that some reliable method of quantitatively testing (non-invasive) the appropriate parameters seems to me the only way that one can avoid the totally subjective nature and shortcomings inherent in all authentication paradigms.

[jcmtiger]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I've never collected autographs, and never had much of an interest in them. But I do read most of the autograph threads on this board. I imagine people will continue collecting autographs, and would guess that those collectors will enjoy what they are doing. That said, I've never seen a more depressing hobby or state of affairs than what transpires on Net54.

The amount of infighting among collectors and dealers is a little hard to believe. It seems like you guys really don't like each other. And the number of collectors who get ripped off buying bad stuff is truly alarming. This end of the hobby has a simply dreadful image. It looks like the place all the scammers and con men go to make a living.

If you want to see a healthy future, something has to be done. If it reaches the point where nobody can agree on whether or not a Babe Ruth signature is good or bad, then I would say the future does not look all that bright. The number of new collectors entering will grow smaller.

I agree Barry.

Joe

[HexsHeroes]

.

I, too, have pondered whether it might be best to liquidate my entire vintage autograph collection in the near future, versus holding on for another couple of decades.

My primary concern is two fold. First, the primary focus of my collection is on obscure ballplayer autographs, so the demand is considerably less, than say for a Ruth or Cobb caliber of ballplayer. My items are not the kind of material to interest too many auction houses of the quality and success rate that I would want to sell my collection. Secondly, a large majority of my collection was purchased from dealers with reasonably good/excellent hobby reputations, such as Jim Stinson, Richard Simon, Bill Corcoran, Ron Gordon, Kevin Keating, Doug Averitt, Jim Spence, etc. But most/all of these gentlemen are quite likely to be retired from the hobby in 20 years or so. With the exception of Rhys Yeakley and Jodi Birkholm, I am not overly familar with many "younger" dealers that may still be actively buying in 20 years. I can't help but think that makes for a much smaller marketplace, which would influence how much revenue the sale of my autographs would generate. And I am not even convinced that eBay will remain a viable option in 20 years.

For now, my course of action is to take a deep breath, drink a good whisky, and continue my pursuit for the autographs that elude me.

Your thoughts on the future (20 years out) on the vintage autograph hobby and whether there will be many/any professional dealers ?

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by HexsHeroes

.

I, too, have pondered whether it might be best to liquidate my entire vintage autograph collection in the near future, versus holding on for another couple of decades.

My primary concern is two fold. First, the primary focus of my collection is on obscure ballplayer autographs, so the demand is considerably less, than say for a Ruth or Cobb caliber of ballplayer. My items are not the kind of material to interest too many auction houses of the quality and success rate that I would want to sell my collection. Secondly, a large majority of my collection was purchased from dealers with reasonably good/excellent hobby reputations, such as Jim Stinson, Richard Simon, Bill Corcoran, Ron Gordon, Kevin Keating, Doug Averitt, Jim Spence, etc. But most/all of these gentlemen are quite likely to be retired from the hobby in 20 years or so. With the exception of Rhys Yeakley and Jodi Birkholm, I am not overly familar with many "younger" dealers that may still be actively buying in 20 years. I can't help but think that makes for a much smaller marketplace, which would influence how much revenue the sale of my autographs would generate. And I am not even convinced that eBay will remain a viable option in 20 years.

For now, my course of action is to take a deep breath, drink a good whisky, and continue my pursuit for the autographs that elude me.

Your thoughts on the future (20 years out) on the vintage autograph hobby and whether there will be many/any professional dealers ?

If you're worried about the financial future of your hobby, get out now and you won't have to worry any more. Nobody knows what's going to happen. My guess is that collectibles will follow the economy: if it prospers, they will prosper; if there's a depression, there will be one in those, too. If you enjoy collecting, do it and don't think about the future. Or, as a wise man said: "Today has enough problems of its own--leave tomorrow's for tomorrow."

[travrosty]

the old rare autographs are always going to hold their value, but if anyone has a portfolio of autographs that they have assembled purely for the investment, to me that is a carpshoot.

collect them because you enjoy them, if they go up in value, great, if not, dont sweat it.

[earlywynnfan]

Originally Posted by HexsHeroes

.

I, too, have pondered whether it might be best to liquidate my entire vintage autograph collection in the near future, versus holding on for another couple of decades.

My primary concern is two fold. First, the primary focus of my collection is on obscure ballplayer autographs, so the demand is considerably less, than say for a Ruth or Cobb caliber of ballplayer. My items are not the kind of material to interest too many auction houses of the quality and success rate that I would want to sell my collection. Secondly, a large majority of my collection was purchased from dealers with reasonably good/excellent hobby reputations, such as Jim Stinson, Richard Simon, Bill Corcoran, Ron Gordon, Kevin Keating, Doug Averitt, Jim Spence, etc. But most/all of these gentlemen are quite likely to be retired from the hobby in 20 years or so. With the exception of Rhys Yeakley and Jodi Birkholm, I am not overly familar with many "younger" dealers that may still be actively buying in 20 years. I can't help but think that makes for a much smaller marketplace, which would influence how much revenue the sale of my autographs would generate. And I am not even convinced that eBay will remain a viable option in 20 years.

For now, my course of action is to take a deep breath, drink a good whisky, and continue my pursuit for the autographs that elude me.

Your thoughts on the future (20 years out) on the vintage autograph hobby and whether there will be many/any professional dealers ?

I think you should sell me the ones I'd be interested in, then keep the rest for your own personal enjoyment. I trust those sellers you bought from, but nobody else will!!

Ken

[whyconform]

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