What the future holds in the autograph industry

[slidekellyslide]

Originally Posted by HOF Auto Rookies

I think what Dan was stating that sometimes there comes an item that the TPA knows it's a forgery, and certify it because of the rarity of the specific item and potential historical significance. Like the PSA 8 Wagner, everyone knew it was trimmed, and that was the very first card I believe PSA certified, so it was huge in regards to marketing PSA.

I hope that helped explain our stance a little.

I was thinking more along the lines of the symbiotic relationship they have...how hard do they really want to rid the hobby of forgery since they basically make their living off of it. It makes me ponder the secretive nature of this business.... I don't believe that JSA or PSA intentionally holder bad autos though. Obviously there are TPA's that are the go to guys for the forgers and these autos usually end up at CC or in your local "estate" auction.

[Runscott]

Please don't yell at me for going off-topic, but all this discussion of bad autographs, blind collectors and unscrupulous TPA's and forgers made me think of this:

[shelly]

Originally Posted by slidekellyslide

I was thinking more along the lines of the symbiotic relationship they have...how hard do they really want to rid the hobby of forgery since they basically make their living off of it. It makes me ponder the secretive nature of this business.... I don't believe that JSA or PSA intentionally holder bad autos though. Obviously there are TPA's that are the go to guys for the forgers and these autos usually end up at CC or in your local "estate" auction.

No on is saying on purpose. I am saying once a forger can get them to authenticate his items they are his for life. There are people on here that no the story of he miniture autograh Rurth balls. That well know authenticator has been chaseing those ball to be the authenticator to protect himself. People like Richard, Jim, Ron and few others laugh when we see it happen. It is hard to go back and admit a mistake. I think the difference between the go to guys is price. Garbage is Garbage.

[packs]

I know I'm having a great time looking for pieces that I like. JSA and PSA don't hinder me from doing that. I couldn't care less about the "future" as I am only interested in the past.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by packs

I know I'm having a great time looking for pieces that I like. JSA and PSA don't hinder me from doing that. I couldn't care less about the "future" as I am only interested in the past.

They may be indirectly hindering you. Jim S has said that he thinks forgers are getting better and better, to the point that they can create forgeries that are indistinguishable from the real deal. If their quality has at least improved a great deal, that may be because the legitimate TPA's (JSA and PSA) forced them to get better.

I don't know for sure, as I wasn't collecting autographs back then, but to me it's reasonable to believe that before JSA and PSA, people HAD to buy from honest, good sellers, and/or if they were willing to study legitimate exemplars and become experts themselves (as opposed to blindly relying on TPA's and AH's), their chances of purchasing a real Ruth were much better than they are today, since the forgeries weren't as good. I hope that makes sense, but perhaps I'm completely incorrect.

[shelly]

Originally Posted by Runscott

They may be indirectly hindering you. Jim S has said that he thinks forgers are getting better and better, to the point that they can create forgeries that are indistinguishable from the real deal. If their quality has at least improved a great deal, that may be because the legitimate TPA's (JSA and PSA) forced them to get better.

I don't know for sure, as I wasn't collecting autographs back then, but to me it's reasonable to believe that before JSA and PSA, people HAD to buy from honest, good sellers, and/or if they were willing to study legitimate exemplars and become experts themselves (as opposed to blindly relying on TPA's and AH's), their chances of purchasing a real Ruth were much better than they are today, since the forgeries weren't as good. I hope that makes sense, but perhaps I'm completely incorrect.

Hello, that is what I have been trying to say. The are getting better than the authenticators. Once that happens your sunk. I think the advice of getting better equipment and doing data testing might help. If they keep on doing like they are there percentage of real vs fake will drop below fifty percent. When that happens you can flip and coin and save yourself a lot of money.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by shelly

Hello, that is what I have been trying to say. The are getting better than the authenticators. Once that happens your sunk.

I think it's worse than that, and it's the crux of why we have so many fights on this forum - it's true that forgers are passing a very high % of bad Ruths and Gehrigs (etc.) right by the two legitimate TPA's, but what's worse is that when we bring these up for discussion on this forum, where we have experts who are better than those that the TPA's use, some of our guys give the bad autographs the green light And because of the massive egos, disagreement=fight.

Take that '700 HR' Ruth ticket - many say it's good, many say it's not. But the same guy who started off by saying he's 100% positive it's bad, is the only expert (maybe there are two - also a non-board member?) here who thinks the green-ink '27 Yankees ball is good. It's really mind-boggling how much disagreement there is right here.

[shelly]

[QUOTE=Runscott;1126284]I think it's worse than that, and it's the crux of why we have so many fights on this forum - it's true that forgers are passing a very high % of bad Ruths and Gehrigs (etc.) right by the two legitimate TPA's, but what's worse is that when we bring these up for discussion on this forum, where we have experts who are better than those that the TPA's use, some of our guys give the bad autographs the green light And because of the massive egos, disagreement=fight.

Take that '700 HR' Ruth ticket - many say it's good, many say it's not. But the same guy who started off by saying he's 100% positive it's bad, is the only expert (maybe there are two - also a non-board member?) here who thinks the green-ink '27 Yankees ball is good. It's really mind-boggling how much disagreement there is right here.[/QUO

Right or wrong that was his opinion.
I like who the new authenticators. The consigner. The consigner motto"I am not in the business but I know its authentic trust me"

[HOF Auto Rookies]

I think some type of forensic testing would be great to see, obviously non-invasive. But, with that the prices to get certification would sky-rocket.

[slidekellyslide]

Originally Posted by shelly

No on is saying on purpose. I am saying once a forger can get them to authenticate his items they are his for life. There are people on here that no the story of he miniture autograh Rurth balls. That well know authenticator has been chaseing those ball to be the authenticator to protect himself. People like Richard, Jim, Ron and few others laugh when we see it happen. It is hard to go back and admit a mistake. I think the difference between the go to guys is price. Garbage is Garbage.

I agree Shelly, I was just addressing something that was brought up in this thread that I wrote in another thread. Don't want people to misunderstand my words.