1887 Old Judge survival rates???

[cyseymour]

What do you mean by survival rates? Do you mean the percentage that survived compared to how many were produced? Or simply the remaining populations? About 2/3's of graded OJ's are graded by SGC, so you can check their pop reports to get an idea of how many there are... although there are also ungraded OJ's sitting in private collections. That's the case for almost any type of card, though I believe there are some advanced collectors with extensive ungraded collections.

That said, they are certainly all more scarce than T206's. And each player tends to have several poses. In fact, I would say that there is not a single OJ pose produced that is as common as the T206 Wagner. A lot of the New York and Boston OJ's are the most common, since it was such a popular team. Cards of King Kelly, Keefe, Clarkson, Ward, etc. Jimmy Ryan and George Gore... popular players from popular teams.

That's why your Keefe card was so affordable, because he is one of the more common HOF'ers. But don't think that your card isn't scarce because of that - in fact, it's still much more scarce than a T206 HOFer, especially if you break the population down by pose - something that is rarely done, but probably ought to be for a fair contrast to T206's since many T206 HOFers have 3-4 poses.

So for population reports, I would say that your "common" OJ is still probably 10x as scarce as a T206... and about 40x as scarce if you were going to break those common OJ's down by pose. Now, if you find an OJ with a nice image, like your Keefe, those are even more scarce since so many OJ's are faded, and you have something really special at a really nice price, imo.

[HRBAKER]

I've always thought just the sheer number of Old Judges and T206s that are still hanging around gives insight into just how prevalent smoking was in the late 19th and early 20th century compared to now.

[insidethewrapper]

My dad is still alive and collected Goudey's in the 1930's and was always looking for # 106. I asked him about tobacco cards and he stated "he never knew they existed in the 1930's". I guess he didn't have any relatives that smoked. Also very poor in the 1930's.

It is really surprising how that many cards survived with all the paper shortages and paper drives of WWI and WWII, since most would be destroyed over the years. Hard to believe any could be graded high after all these years. I don't believe the cards from the top collectors back then received many high grades. Correct me if I'm wrong. Remember they didn't have supplies to protect the cards back then. How did the high grades survive ?

[Zone91]

Thanks guys it makes one even appreciate them even more knowing this information!!!

As for my Keefe it will stay a very long time in my collection most likely till I pass away and I am only 32 years old so hopefully I can enjoy it for a long time and add some more cards to my collection every year. I have no need to sell any cards I will be buying especially ones from the 1800's that ''can't'' be replaced....money is not always everything in these situations.

[paul]

Keep looking and you may even find Hall of Famers in decent condition for less than your Keefe. It won't happen too often, but here is one:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/251245263732...=STRK:MEWAX:IT

[Leon]

Personally, and this is going to sound wild, but I think there are more than 100,000 T206s still to be uncovered from inherited hoards. I just now got off the phone with a lady that has 120'ish T206s she got from her mom who passed away not too long ago. Add those to the 500'ish we just had in our auction and there is 600 right there...and my auction and this board is a tiny splinter of what is out there, imo. I would also guess there are many thousands of N172s still to be found. Just my opinion.....

[Zone91]

Leon

I hope you are right simply because I have almost no money invested in these cards yet and would not mind if they where cheaper because of more finds that way I could collect them and still have fun but for less money.

I know some have invested a LOT of money in these cards so it would be a bad blow to them.

I would love to see more Old Judges found that way more collectors could get those cards that are at the moment impossible to find.

I am NOT collecting for profit just for simple pleasure so more cards exists the more fun I could have.