Derek Jeter will break Pete Rose's Hit Record

[mcgwirecom]

Originally Posted by CMIZ5290

Interesting we're talking about Yankees. Wouldn't it be curious to think how many homeruns Mantle would have hit if not for nagging injuries and extra activities not related to the game?

Or how many homeruns would Ruth have if he actually was in shape!

[springpin]

I said Wagner and I meant Speaker. It will take another six years to do it. Rose played until he was 44. Jeter is 38. It could happen, and I hope so.

[ctownboy]

I don't think Jeter will make it.

Currently he is 952 Hits away from tying Rose for the All Time record. He would have to average 159 Hits each of the next six years to tie Rose.

If you look at the All Time Hit leaders, a lot of them performed well in their late 30's but they seem to have hit a wall at 40.

Jeter suffered an ankle injury last Fall and he may or may not start the season on the DL because he is still recovering from that injury.

If Jeter were to get 180 Hits in each of the next two years then he would need to only average 148 Hits the next four years. Problem is, Father Time hits ALL players at some point.

If Jeter misses time at the start of this year and then starts having nagging injuries which either keeps him out of the line up because he is on the DL or his Manager keeps him out of some Games just to give him some rest then it is likely he wont get 180 the next two years or average 148 the following four years.

It is also entirely possible that the Yankees decline to a point where continuing to play through injuries and rehab just isn't worth it to Jeter.

David

[jboosted92]

Originally Posted by ctownboy

I don't think Jeter will make it.

Currently he is 952 Hits away from tying Rose for the All Time record. He would have to average 159 Hits each of the next six years to tie Rose.

If you look at the All Time Hit leaders, a lot of them performed well in their late 30's but they seem to have hit a wall at 40.

Jeter suffered an ankle injury last Fall and he may or may not start the season on the DL because he is still recovering from that injury.

If Jeter were to get 180 Hits in each of the next two years then he would need to only average 148 Hits the next four years. Problem is, Father Time hits ALL players at some point.

If Jeter misses time at the start of this year and then starts having nagging injuries which either keeps him out of the line up because he is on the DL or his Manager keeps him out of some Games just to give him some rest then it is likely he wont get 180 the next two years or average 148 the following four years.

It is also entirely possible that the Yankees decline to a point where continuing to play through injuries and rehab just isn't worth it to Jeter.

David

If he was around 3800 now, id say hed have a SHOT...you have to remember, Rose was getting 200, 200, 200, 200, 200, 200....with NO down years...Roses prime vs Jeter prime isnt comparable... Id be shocked in 3 years, if Jeter is 1. still playing, and if so, he gets more than 120 hits that year

[howard38]

.

[mattsey9]

A current Yankee will break Rose's record, but not Jeter. (At least not first)

Ichiro has 3,884 career hits counting his NPB career. Should he match his 2012 total of 178 hits in each of his next two seasons, that would give him 4,240 for his career. He'd easily break Rose's career mark if he can stay healthy for three more seasons.

[z28jd]

Originally Posted by mattsey9

A current Yankee will break Rose's record, but not Jeter. (At least not first)

Ichiro has 3,884 career hits counting his NPB career. Should he match his 2012 total of 178 hits in each of his next two seasons, that would give him 4,240 for his career. He'd easily break Rose's career mark if he can stay healthy for three more seasons.

It's hard to equate hits in Japan to MLB hits when Matt Murton holds the single season hits record over there.

I would have to include the 427 hits Pete Rose had in the minors, if we are going to include records in lesser leagues

Jeter is not getting the record. As someone mentioned above, he willy likely start the year on the DL and they aren't going to play him every single day once he gets back, plus he will be 39 this season. If the Yankees are bad, and he struggles with his health, this could be the end of the line for him. He needed a cortisone shot today, so that is always a concern

[dgo71]

Originally Posted by z28jd

It's hard to equate hits in Japan to MLB hits when Matt Murton holds the single season hits record over there.

Thank you voice of reason! Japan is upper AA-to-AAA caliber at best. Everyone not named Ichiro who has come over has been pretty bad. Nomo and Kuroda have had some success but nothing of "superstar" caliber. For every Ichiro there are 20 Tsuyoshi Nishiokas...and there's a reason for that.

[ctownboy]

According to Baseball Reference.com, here are the top 10 players with the most Hits including and after the age of 40. The last number is Plate Appearances.

1. Cap Anson 823 2992
2. Pete Rose 699 2955
3. Sam Rice 551 1906
4. Luke Appling 488 1930
5. Honus Wagner 479 1989
6. Carlton Fisk 473 2011
7. Jim O'Rourke 458 1678
8. Dave Winfield 413 1722
9. Carl Yastrzemski 410 1762
10. Julio Franco 409 1619

The average for this group is 520 Hits. However, since only three of the 10 had over 500 Hits it is most likely that under 500 Hits is more reasonable.

So, if Jeter has 3304 Hits now and were somehow able to get 200 Hits in each of his next two seasons, he would stand at 3704. If he were to turn 40 and perform like the average of the above 10 players (520 Hits) then that would give him 4224 Hits by his age 44 season.

However, if he performed like the average of the bottom seven on that list (447 Hits) then Jeter would have 4151 Hits by his age 44 season. So, he would be 44 and still be 105 Hits away from tying Rose.

So, the ONLY way it looks like Jeter is going to break the record is if he gets 200 or more Hits in each of the next two seasons and THEN performs better than the average of the top 10 guys to play after the age of 40.

David