T205...a bit of my research

[EvilKing00]

Originally Posted by Wite3

I have some time this afternoon and want to share a bit of information about the T205 advertising backs. Specifically, the #'s of backs seen as a percentage of total backs. Now, keep in mind that this is NOT all t205 backs ever but as most of you know, I tend to keep information and follow the backs pretty closely. I compiled sales data from ebay, major (and some minor) auction houses, shows (rare now), and even some private sales and data provided by other t205 collectors. My methods I feel are fairly accurate and give a decent representation of the hobby but I certainly missed some things.

The first thing I will post is the last time I publicly shared information on percentages. This was from 2005. Then I will show you what I have now (through 2012). In the last 7 years several large hordes and collections have come to market and several collectors have opened their collections to me. In 2005 the sample size was just over 3100 cards. Now I have data on 22000!! I did not include blank backs in this either. At the bottom, I put a bit of my own analysis but draw your own conclusions.

So...here we go...first the cards from 2005 for those who do not remember

Advertiser Color Fact. Code # of cards seen %Total
Piedmont Blue 25 512 16.4
Polar Bear Blue 473 15.2
Sweet Cap. Red 451 14.5
Sweet Cap. Black 25 321 10.3
Sweet Cap. Black 42 309 9.9
Hassan Green 649 307 9.9
Honest Long Cut Black 307 9.9
Sovereign Green 191 6.1
Cycle Black 107 3.4
Hassan Green 30 99 3.2
American Beauty Black 17 .55
American Beauty Green 8 .26
Piedmont Blue 42 6 .19
Broadleaf Black 2 .06
Broadleaf Green 2 .06
Hindu Brown 2 .06
Drum Brown 0 .00

Total 205s taken for this research: 3114

Now the data from 2012.

Advertiser Color Fact. Code # of cards seen %Total
Piedmont Blue 25 4167 18.9
Polar Bear Blue 3524 16.0
Sweet Cap. Red 3071 14.0
Sweet Cap. Black 25 2125 9.7
Sweet Cap. Black 42 2053 9.3
Hassan Green 649 1761 8.0
Honest Long Cut Black 1739 7.9
Sovereign Green 1580 7.2
Cycle Black 718 3.3
Hassan Green 30 496 2.3
Piedmont Blue 42 205 .93
American Beauty Green 189 .86
American Beauty Black 163 .74
Broadleaf Black 80 .36
Broadleaf Green 71 .32
Hindu Brown 44 .20
Drum Brown 27 .12

Total: 22013

Looking at the two charts you can see a few things. First, the common backs remained relatively the same except the %'s. I can see that Sovereign has increased a bit due to some recent finds while Piedmont 25 has increased a great deal. It is by far the most common back. The rare backs have been selling a bit more often of late including the American Beauties. The Green has moved ahead of the Black there. Also Piedmont 42s have jumped ahead of the American Beauties. In 2005, I had only seen a handful of hindus and no drums. I knew they were around but did not have any data. A few "recent" finds (incl. the St. Louis drum find) have added a bunch of numbers to them. Drum is still the king in rarity with hindu and broadleaf green(khaki) close behind. I am still surprised I do not see Hassan 30s more often.

Lastly, I want to put the caveat out there that this is my data alone and others may disagree. That is fine and I know this is not perfect but I do FEEL that this is a good representation of the back breakdown for T205s.

Joshua

Awesome Info Josh thanks!

[EvilKing00]

Question:

as far as all the diff backs in t205 and their rarity:

How much more should I expect to pay for a card with any of these backs.

Example, Lets say im buying a SGC 30 common card for $25, pied 25 back
I would be interested to see a list of all the backs with like a, % or a x, with the inceresed value i should expect to pay.
Example -
polar bear - same price
Cycle .50 more
AB - x2
ETC

[Leon]

Originally Posted by EvilKing00

Question:

as far as all the diff backs in t205 and their rarity:

How much more should I expect to pay for a card with any of these backs.

Example, Lets say im buying a SGC 30 common card for $25, pied 25 back
I would be interested to see a list of all the backs with like a, % or a x, with the inceresed value i should expect to pay.
Example -
polar bear - same price
Cycle .50 more
AB - x2
ETC

It's really market driven. My guess is that all but the most rare 4-5 don't add values. I would say AB might add 25% or so, Broadleaf 2.5x to 7x or so , and Hindu and Drums are the biggies. It really depends on the card and condition. A common Hindu that would go for $50 with a Piedmont back might go for 15x-30x or more....and a common Drum might go for 25x-35x or more in today's market. These are just educated guesses and others might know more. Those are estimates for commons and a multiple for a HOF'er would be less. I would guess my Hindu Johnson, if it had a Piedmont back, would be $300-$400 in today's market...but with the Hindu back would probably fetch 12x that.....again, just my opinion (and what I figure I have into it).

Also, for comparison's sake, I think I paid about $3500 for my M. Brown with a Drum back in a 4.5 holder last year?....and if it were a Sweet Cap back it would probably be around a $200-$300 card.....again, just guesses on the common back but real data on the Drum....so it's about 12x-15x. Hope this helps....

[EvilKing00]

hmmm yes that does help leon thanks, also, taking 2 common cards both in the same condition, 1 is a polar bear and the other is a cycle or a hassan 30, they are both worth the same, more or less?

It all depends on the player. The SP's in the set all have only 3 backs with cycle being very very scarce and comanding a massive premium over a normal cycle backed player. The cycle will always command a small premium over most of the other common backs. It's the tetering point in the backs. After cycle you start seeing bigger jumps on cards. A $15 common in poor condition will fetch $40-50 with an AB back. Not much more than $80-120 for the BL and probably $300-350 for the Drum. If it has an AB green it will not have a BL or Drum back. So AB greens to me are the top card since the AB blacks can have BL and Drum parallels.

[EvilKing00]

interesting - well - i just payed a bit more than I would normally for a common SGC30, cause it had a hassan Fact 30 back. I havent seen one of those recently, and I didnt have that card or that back.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by EvilKing00

interesting - well - i just payed a bit more than I would normally for a common SGC30, cause it had a hassan Fact 30 back. I havent seen one of those recently, and I didnt have that card or that back.

I would listen to the T205 guys more than me, seriously. That being said I do watch the scarcest backs quite a bit.