Are people dumping E98's?

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by pcoz

So, let's say 100-120 per player, give or take a few. So, E98's are still somewhat scarce even after the BSF. I'm not sure where they stack up vs. other E sets, but I'd say probably in the middle of the pack.

I don't think so Pete...with those graded pops, E98 is now likely one of the least scarce E sets if you are combining all colors of E98. I'd say only Cracker Jack is as available as E98 now. Maybe E95 too. I believe even E90-1 looks scarcer, based on graded pops.

(Of course there is always the weakness of relying too much on graded pops, as opposed to ungraded cards in collections, but that is true of any such comparison.)


Cheers,
Blair

[pcoz]

Originally Posted by Bosox Blair

I don't think so Pete...with those graded pops, E98 is now likely one of the least scarce E sets if you are combining all colors of E98. I'd say only Cracker Jack is as available as E98 now. Maybe E95 too. I believe even E90-1 looks scarcer, based on graded pops.

(Of course there is always the weakness of relying too much on graded pops, as opposed to ungraded cards in collections, but that is true of any such comparison.)


Cheers,
Blair

Blair, I respectfully disagree with them being anywhere near as plentiful as E90-1, Cracker Jacks, E95, E92, E91 or E93's. I'm probably missing some sets too. All of those are without question much easier to find. The National had a gazillion of all of them, and less than 20 E98's/E94's. As I previously mentioned, the Philly show had almost no E98/E94's. There are obviously more E98's now than before after the BSF. But, the BSF cards will end up in high end collections, and the low to mid-grade ones will probably remain extremely difficult to track down. I've been after E98's for years, and I'm sure some of the other fellas on the board can back me up on this.

[shammus]

Thanks for the kind words, guys!

I suppose I'd be in the group that thinks the BSF will eventually cause a drop in prices as supply continues to increase. Yes, I realize all the new BSF cards are highgrade, but many collectors, including all the set registry guys will see all these highgrade cards and pursue them. Then, if theory holds, they'll put their dupes up on the market creating sort of a trickle down effect.

Also, keep in mind, I don't believe we've seen the bulk of the BSF cards released to auction just yet. What, was there in all? 695 cards to be released over 2 years? I think the majority have yet to appear. I don't think they'll get quite to e95 levels in terms of availability but they'll certainly be in around the e93 or e101 level for sure.

[pcoz]

Brian, you could be right on all your points. I consider us both avid E98 collectors, and I can't speak for you, but I have very little interest in the BSF cards. I may pick up a couple along the way, but doubt I'd make a run at more than that as I work towards a Master set. If the prewar market is as strong as I think it is, the BSF cards IMO will be absorbed by new collectors into E98's that have had their interest piqued by the find. I'm not sure they're presently E98 collectors working on a Master set with a bunch to dump. I'm in the camp of thinking the low-mid grade E98's will hold steady and increase over time as those with future interests and less of a budget will be able to afford these...almost two separate markets of E98 collectors. Different color demand, ie...Blues(none in the Find) might spur interest too. Time will tell and I've been wrong before.

[shammus]

Hey Pete! Hope you are well!

I don't know if I see collector's dumping their e98s just because they fear dropping prices. I know for myself, I don't really care if they drop or not, I'm in it to finish the set because I'm a collector working on a project...heh...I'm not worried about their resale value because I have no interest in parting with mine. I think there are quite a few others that would probably feel the same way.

But, I do see prices dropping with the raise in supply. I see the highgrade BSF cards going to set registry guys and highgrade collectors for the most part. I don't see new entrants into the hobby really pursuing these, as e98s in this nice of condition, generally speaking, aren't exactly affordable for new collectors. BUT, new collectors would pursue the low to mid grade dupes placed out on the market by the highgrade/set registry guys if they're able to upgrade. My thinking is that eventually, once the bulk of these cards start hitting the market, the high grade guys will upgrade, leaving their low-mid grade dupes on the open market which will create the increase in supply on those levels too...thusly creating that "trickle-down" effect I mentioned - causing prices to drop.

We'll have to wait a couple years for all this to play out of course, but sure, I can easily see e98s falling into levels of availability that are akin to e93s, e101s, e102s, etc...

I'd also agree with you on your assessment of the BSF e98s finding their way into your own personal collection - many of my own e98s are lowgrade and I'd be truly surprised if even one of those nice, fancy BSF examples made it's way over here

[caramelcard]

I look at this find as a separate group of E98s. Within that high grade group, some of the cards might not demand as much as others when they're sold off.

The demand is still there for lower to mid grade E98s and collectors like myself and others will never stop watching the market and buying them as they appear at auction. It only takes two of us to push one of these low grade cards over 100 bucks or more. And many of us won't bid on the cards from the find so it won't really affect the values of the other examples that come up for sale.

Not all, but many of the collectors that really pay attention to the set aren't as interested in high grade cards as they are quantity, studying the set, and/or just completing a player set.

You guys may not agree, but if you ignore the new find, I believe there are far more raw E98s in collections than graded cards.

Comparing E98s to E95 and E96s, even with the new find it's still not even close in my opinion. E95s are still 10 times or more plentiful. They may have pulled much closer to say E93 though.

Rob

[pcoz]

Hey Brian, all is well thx and hopefully with you too! Trickle down theory makes sense with more supply, and Rob, there have been equally as many raw as graded when they've popped up. So, you could both be right. I'm really interested to see if the various backs bring different premiums in time, and how many collectors look to pursue E98's in general. It's a great set and one I've really enjoyed collecting.

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by pcoz

Blair, I respectfully disagree with them being anywhere near as plentiful as E90-1, Cracker Jacks, E95, E92, E91 or E93's. I'm probably missing some sets too. All of those are without question much easier to find. The National had a gazillion of all of them, and less than 20 E98's/E94's. As I previously mentioned, the Philly show had almost no E98/E94's. There are obviously more E98's now than before after the BSF. But, the BSF cards will end up in high end collections, and the low to mid-grade ones will probably remain extremely difficult to track down. I've been after E98's for years, and I'm sure some of the other fellas on the board can back me up on this.

Hi Pete,

You might well be right. Just to put it out there, I have no horse in this race...I own one nice E98 HOFer as a type card, and I'm not looking to add more.

I just found the whole Black Swamp thing fascinating (as a lot of other collectors did). Back when that was going on - about 3 months ago - I wrote the following post elsewhere in a discussion of the BSF. You might find it interesting, or not:

I have no doubt collectors will absorb these. But I'm not confident the prices will stay up, or rise later.

Let's stay with Wagner. After the Black Swamp find, the PSA pop report shows 75 E98 Wagners...and 38 of those grade PSA 7 or higher!

In terms of caramel cards, 75 PSA slabbed examples is a very high number. And the grading distribution is almost unheard of for caramels - more than half grading over a 7!

Even using 1915 Cracker Jack to compare (in the world of E-cards, these are some of the easiest to find - and highest graded) when we look at Wagner, PSA has graded 86 examples with 26 of those grading 7 or higher (30%).

People like to mention M116 as a set that has remained low-priced because it is so easy to find high-grade examples (I'm not arguing). But look at Wagner in M116. There are two Honus poses - pastel and blue. Both poses combined, PSA has graded 88 examples. Only 14 of 88 have been graded 7 or higher (16%).

How about some other pretty "easy" Wagner E-cards:

E93 Wagner? PSA has graded 66 with 5 achieving 7 or higher (7.5%).

E95 Wagner? PSA has graded 87 with 2 grading 7 or higher (2.3%).

E92 Dockman Wagner - the easier throwing pose? PSA has graded 46 with 1 grading a 7...none higher (2.2%).

I think these comparisons show how this find has destroyed any thoughts of E98 being generally tough...and certainly not tough in high grade for the cards represented in significant numbers in the find.

Cheers,
Blair

[pcoz]

Hi Blair, thanks for the numbers and we'll see. Your insight is interesting. You're mentioning PSA solely though, and ALL the BSF cards were given to them. SGC tells a quite different story. E98's have been tough to find. With more supply now, they just got less difficult for sure. There's over 100 Babe Ruth RC's, and within that set, no difference in the amount of Babe vs the other cards. But, his RC has quadrupled in price this past year or two. I'm not comparing Babe's RC to Wagner's E98, but neither is rare or abundant. No one knows how collectors will view this set over time. I have a Blue PSA 4 Wagner & Orange SGC 55 Wagner that I would absolutely expect to bring a higher price than it's Red or Green Wagner counterparts found in the BSF. Maybe the prices come down on some, but you may find some that will increase as well due to the BSF.

[ullmandds]

personally...after hearing both sides here...I DO believe the BSF is a game changer for E98...and E98 is now one of the more common caramel issues with an unprecedentedly disproportionate ratio of high grade cards...comparatively speaking.

[Touch'EmAll]

Looking at all the various E98 population figures posted on this thread, yes, they are tough to come by. So why are 1920's Exhibits of major HOF'ers in mid/high grade so cheap relative to E98's? These Exhibits often have pops like less than 10. I just picked up a 1926 Exhibit Gehrig (head shot) in PSA 5 - bet its lower pop than most of theE98's you discuss - and I got it for a fraction of what you would pay for a higher end E98 major HOFer. Do 1920's Exhibits really have that small of a demand side vs. E98's? The supply side sure is lower.

[ullmandds]

rarity does not equal $$$$$...in all cases?! I think the size of exhibits hurts their values too.

I occasionally wonder about exhibits? It seems the way they were distributed that there should be a lot more of them out there...maybe they're just not graded as readily?

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by pcoz

Hi Blair, thanks for the numbers and we'll see. Your insight is interesting. You're mentioning PSA solely though, and ALL the BSF cards were given to them. SGC tells a quite different story. E98's have been tough to find. With more supply now, they just got less difficult for sure. There's over 100 Babe Ruth RC's, and within that set, no difference in the amount of Babe vs the other cards. But, his RC has quadrupled in price this past year or two. I'm not comparing Babe's RC to Wagner's E98, but neither is rare or abundant. No one knows how collectors will view this set over time. I have a Blue PSA 4 Wagner & Orange SGC 55 Wagner that I would absolutely expect to bring a higher price than it's Red or Green Wagner counterparts found in the BSF. Maybe the prices come down on some, but you may find some that will increase as well due to the BSF.

Hi Pete,

I had not looked at the SGC pops before...so I just did.

Before I looked, I thought (as you did) that there might be a different story at SGC - but now I don't think so entirely.

Again, with Honus Wagner, SGC pop report shows:

E98 - 52 graded, with 7 at a grade of NM 7 or better

'15 CJ - 50 graded, with 13 at a grade of NM 7 or better

M116 - 58 graded, with 1 at a grade of NM 7 or better

E93 - 63 graded, with 3 at a grade of NM 7 or better

E92 Dockman fielding - about 45 graded (tough to say exactly because some flips did not specify the pose)

With SGC, the only real standout difference I saw was with E95 - there are a lot more E95, but the huge bulk of them are low-grade.

E95 - 108 graded, with 2 at a grade of NM 7 - none higher (and 89 of the 108 were graded VG or lower!)

Cheers,
Blair

[pcoz]

Originally Posted by Bosox Blair

Hi Pete,

I had not looked at the SGC pops before...so I just did.

Before I looked, I thought (as you did) that there might be a different story at SGC - but now I don't think so entirely.

Again, with Honus Wagner, SGC pop report shows:

E98 - 52 graded, with 7 at a grade of NM 7 or better

'15 CJ - 50 graded, with 13 at a grade of NM 7 or better

M116 - 58 graded, with 1 at a grade of NM 7 or better

E93 - 63 graded, with 3 at a grade of NM 7 or better

E92 Dockman fielding - about 45 graded (tough to say exactly because some flips did not specify the pose)

With SGC, the only real standout difference I saw was with E95 - there are a lot more E95, but the huge bulk of them are low-grade.

E95 - 108 graded, with 2 at a grade of NM 7 - none higher (and 89 of the 108 were graded VG or lower!)

Cheers,
Blair

Blair, a ton of E98's were just crossed over from PSA, hence the new high grades SGC never had before. So, no new cards were found. I've crossed at least 20 over through the years myself. I see your point in the "pop reports", but it's not reality. They are very tough to find, and the ones available soon(BSF), will be expensive when they are made available. Just look on ebay...less than 20 total E98's taking out the National promos, with 150+ for both E93/E95's and 300+ Cracker Jacks. I know the BSF dilutes the set to a point, but maybe it's also made it more accessible and popular as well. I think the jury is still out on all points of the set IMO.

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by pcoz

Blair, a ton of E98's were just crossed over from PSA, hence the new high grades SGC never had before. So, no new cards were found. I've crossed at least 20 over through the years myself. I see your point in the "pop reports", but it's not reality. They are very tough to find, and the ones available soon(BSF), will be expensive when they are made available. Just look on ebay...less than 20 total E98's taking out the National promos, with 150+ for both E93/E95's and 300+ Cracker Jacks. I know the BSF dilutes the set to a point, but maybe it's also made it more accessible and popular as well. I think the jury is still out on all points of the set IMO.

Hi Pete,

I definitely don't view pop reports as the gospel on anything (more often, I point out the weaknesses in these things). In terms of absolute numbers, I would not rely on them at all.

However, I do think these things are very useful for relative comparisons - especially now that the sample sizes are significant after years of the TPGs tracking/recording.

I don't really understand why cross-overs factor into a discussion like this. There would have been just as much incentive for a collector to cross his CJ Wagner, his E93 Wagner, etc - and especially high grade ones - over the years. I think cross-overs are a wash when it comes to relative number comparisons of pop reports. I accept that crossovers inflate absolute numbers - I just think they would do so roughly equallly for all sets of similar value. So relative comparisons remain valid.

Of course one thing that skews our view of the availability of CJs is the size of the set. With 176 subjects, you are 6 times more likely to see any old CJ compared to any old card from a much smaller set like E98 on that basis alone.

I'm not trying to discount your personal experience. I don't see that many E98s either. (I could say the same of many other E sets.) But one thing is that AFAIK 75% of the BSF hasn't even hit the market yet...finding E98s will no doubt only get easier.

I agree the jury is still out on values - we'll only know what the future holds...in the future!

Cheers,
Blair

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by pcoz

I have a Blue PSA 4 Wagner & Orange SGC 55 Wagner that I would absolutely expect to bring a higher price than it's Red or Green Wagner counterparts found in the BSF.

I agree that colors will always provide an intesting differentiation within the set (especially given the composition of the BSF), and prices should continue to reflect that in some way.

Cheers,
Blair