Are people dumping E98's?

[pcoz]

Hi Blair, thanks for the numbers and we'll see. Your insight is interesting. You're mentioning PSA solely though, and ALL the BSF cards were given to them. SGC tells a quite different story. E98's have been tough to find. With more supply now, they just got less difficult for sure. There's over 100 Babe Ruth RC's, and within that set, no difference in the amount of Babe vs the other cards. But, his RC has quadrupled in price this past year or two. I'm not comparing Babe's RC to Wagner's E98, but neither is rare or abundant. No one knows how collectors will view this set over time. I have a Blue PSA 4 Wagner & Orange SGC 55 Wagner that I would absolutely expect to bring a higher price than it's Red or Green Wagner counterparts found in the BSF. Maybe the prices come down on some, but you may find some that will increase as well due to the BSF.

[ullmandds]

personally...after hearing both sides here...I DO believe the BSF is a game changer for E98...and E98 is now one of the more common caramel issues with an unprecedentedly disproportionate ratio of high grade cards...comparatively speaking.

[Touch'EmAll]

Looking at all the various E98 population figures posted on this thread, yes, they are tough to come by. So why are 1920's Exhibits of major HOF'ers in mid/high grade so cheap relative to E98's? These Exhibits often have pops like less than 10. I just picked up a 1926 Exhibit Gehrig (head shot) in PSA 5 - bet its lower pop than most of theE98's you discuss - and I got it for a fraction of what you would pay for a higher end E98 major HOFer. Do 1920's Exhibits really have that small of a demand side vs. E98's? The supply side sure is lower.

[ullmandds]

rarity does not equal $$$$$...in all cases?! I think the size of exhibits hurts their values too.

I occasionally wonder about exhibits? It seems the way they were distributed that there should be a lot more of them out there...maybe they're just not graded as readily?

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by pcoz

Hi Blair, thanks for the numbers and we'll see. Your insight is interesting. You're mentioning PSA solely though, and ALL the BSF cards were given to them. SGC tells a quite different story. E98's have been tough to find. With more supply now, they just got less difficult for sure. There's over 100 Babe Ruth RC's, and within that set, no difference in the amount of Babe vs the other cards. But, his RC has quadrupled in price this past year or two. I'm not comparing Babe's RC to Wagner's E98, but neither is rare or abundant. No one knows how collectors will view this set over time. I have a Blue PSA 4 Wagner & Orange SGC 55 Wagner that I would absolutely expect to bring a higher price than it's Red or Green Wagner counterparts found in the BSF. Maybe the prices come down on some, but you may find some that will increase as well due to the BSF.

Hi Pete,

I had not looked at the SGC pops before...so I just did.

Before I looked, I thought (as you did) that there might be a different story at SGC - but now I don't think so entirely.

Again, with Honus Wagner, SGC pop report shows:

E98 - 52 graded, with 7 at a grade of NM 7 or better

'15 CJ - 50 graded, with 13 at a grade of NM 7 or better

M116 - 58 graded, with 1 at a grade of NM 7 or better

E93 - 63 graded, with 3 at a grade of NM 7 or better

E92 Dockman fielding - about 45 graded (tough to say exactly because some flips did not specify the pose)

With SGC, the only real standout difference I saw was with E95 - there are a lot more E95, but the huge bulk of them are low-grade.

E95 - 108 graded, with 2 at a grade of NM 7 - none higher (and 89 of the 108 were graded VG or lower!)

Cheers,
Blair

[pcoz]

Originally Posted by Bosox Blair

Hi Pete,

I had not looked at the SGC pops before...so I just did.

Before I looked, I thought (as you did) that there might be a different story at SGC - but now I don't think so entirely.

Again, with Honus Wagner, SGC pop report shows:

E98 - 52 graded, with 7 at a grade of NM 7 or better

'15 CJ - 50 graded, with 13 at a grade of NM 7 or better

M116 - 58 graded, with 1 at a grade of NM 7 or better

E93 - 63 graded, with 3 at a grade of NM 7 or better

E92 Dockman fielding - about 45 graded (tough to say exactly because some flips did not specify the pose)

With SGC, the only real standout difference I saw was with E95 - there are a lot more E95, but the huge bulk of them are low-grade.

E95 - 108 graded, with 2 at a grade of NM 7 - none higher (and 89 of the 108 were graded VG or lower!)

Cheers,
Blair

Blair, a ton of E98's were just crossed over from PSA, hence the new high grades SGC never had before. So, no new cards were found. I've crossed at least 20 over through the years myself. I see your point in the "pop reports", but it's not reality. They are very tough to find, and the ones available soon(BSF), will be expensive when they are made available. Just look on ebay...less than 20 total E98's taking out the National promos, with 150+ for both E93/E95's and 300+ Cracker Jacks. I know the BSF dilutes the set to a point, but maybe it's also made it more accessible and popular as well. I think the jury is still out on all points of the set IMO.

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by pcoz

Blair, a ton of E98's were just crossed over from PSA, hence the new high grades SGC never had before. So, no new cards were found. I've crossed at least 20 over through the years myself. I see your point in the "pop reports", but it's not reality. They are very tough to find, and the ones available soon(BSF), will be expensive when they are made available. Just look on ebay...less than 20 total E98's taking out the National promos, with 150+ for both E93/E95's and 300+ Cracker Jacks. I know the BSF dilutes the set to a point, but maybe it's also made it more accessible and popular as well. I think the jury is still out on all points of the set IMO.

Hi Pete,

I definitely don't view pop reports as the gospel on anything (more often, I point out the weaknesses in these things). In terms of absolute numbers, I would not rely on them at all.

However, I do think these things are very useful for relative comparisons - especially now that the sample sizes are significant after years of the TPGs tracking/recording.

I don't really understand why cross-overs factor into a discussion like this. There would have been just as much incentive for a collector to cross his CJ Wagner, his E93 Wagner, etc - and especially high grade ones - over the years. I think cross-overs are a wash when it comes to relative number comparisons of pop reports. I accept that crossovers inflate absolute numbers - I just think they would do so roughly equallly for all sets of similar value. So relative comparisons remain valid.

Of course one thing that skews our view of the availability of CJs is the size of the set. With 176 subjects, you are 6 times more likely to see any old CJ compared to any old card from a much smaller set like E98 on that basis alone.

I'm not trying to discount your personal experience. I don't see that many E98s either. (I could say the same of many other E sets.) But one thing is that AFAIK 75% of the BSF hasn't even hit the market yet...finding E98s will no doubt only get easier.

I agree the jury is still out on values - we'll only know what the future holds...in the future!

Cheers,
Blair

[pcoz]

Blair, I agree across the board on your thoughts. They'll get easier to find in the future and we'll have to see what their values will bring. It will be interesting to see how well received the BSF cards will be when they hit the market soon.

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by pcoz

I have a Blue PSA 4 Wagner & Orange SGC 55 Wagner that I would absolutely expect to bring a higher price than it's Red or Green Wagner counterparts found in the BSF.

I agree that colors will always provide an intesting differentiation within the set (especially given the composition of the BSF), and prices should continue to reflect that in some way.

Cheers,
Blair