Are people dumping E98's?

Tim Kindler · #1 10-01-2012, 10:57 PM

I love discussing E98s, so I'm thankful for this thread. Thanks for the kind words Peter and Rob. Yep, only 8 to go, but I'm not fooling myself. It might be awhile yet.... I still need 2 Cobbs and 2 Youngs! Anyway, I guess you are correct Brian in that those on ebay didn't go for too much, but I did think the Tenney was high. But, then again, when it comes to one you really need you will always pay whatever it takes. I will probably pay some pretty stupid prices for what I have left to get as well when they come up for sale

Brian, Congratulations on that Blue Tenney. It is a tough one. I was fortunate to find one this year at the National. Very thankful for the price on it as well.

I'm really not sure about the prices yet??? I did see that the E98 population report on SGC went up by about 150 cards in the last few weeks. Most of them seem to be realy high grades as well. This has to be some of the Black Swamp cards right???? Are these going to be new to the general public or would the buyers of the big Heritage Auction have crossed them over...which I doubt, but who knows?

Pete, If you are going after that Blue Chance in Goodwin, good luck my friend!

That was sincere!

If you haven't seen Pete's near set on the SGC registry, it is worth checking out. Beautiful cards. My four sets are not updated, but still on there. I need to send some off to SGC!
Tim Kindler

pcoz · #2 10-02-2012, 05:26 AM

Thanks Tim, and congrats to be down the homestretch on an amazing collection/accomplishment! Yes, my hat's in the ring on the Chance. We'll see, it's getting up there! Brian, nice work on the Blue Tenney, as another may not come up for years! I don't think there's been a flood in the market of E98's. Putting it in perspective, outside of the National promos, there's less than 20 on ebay. Just went to the Philly show, and there was literally 2(only 4 E94's) that I saw at the whole show. There's a lack of clarity right now with where the market will inevitably be when the rest of the BSF gets unloaded(I heard all of them by the end of the year for estate tax purposes), what the future interest will be in master set collectors and the value of the different colors. It's not a matter of if, but when the caramels heat up again, I'm sure we'll see those that have them without long term collecting intentions sell into strength. Sorry for rambling, but I just don't think we've seen that many recently to say they've been getting dumped.

ullmandds · #3 10-02-2012, 01:02 PM

Additionally...does the ranking of difficulty of E98 need to be reconsidered in comparison to other e issues?

pcoz · #4 10-02-2012, 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ullmandds

Additionally...does the ranking of difficulty of E98 need to be reconsidered in comparison to other e issues?

They have been very tough to find, especially these past couple of years. We can probably all chime in on player/color difficulty, with some really standing out, ie..Red Lajoie, Blue Mack, etc...For both SGC & PSA Pop reports there are just under 2,500 total. So, about 82 cards on average per player, with some in those numbers that have been crossed between each company. Of course there are some ungraded floating around not in those numbers as well. So, let's say 100-120 per player, give or take a few. So, E98's are still somewhat scarce even after the BSF. I'm not sure where they stack up vs. other E sets, but I'd say probably in the middle of the pack.

ullmandds · #5 10-02-2012, 06:35 PM

Nice synopsis pete...i for the most part...agree!

Bosox Blair · #6 10-02-2012, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pcoz

So, let's say 100-120 per player, give or take a few. So, E98's are still somewhat scarce even after the BSF. I'm not sure where they stack up vs. other E sets, but I'd say probably in the middle of the pack.

I don't think so Pete...with those graded pops, E98 is now likely one of the least scarce E sets if you are combining all colors of E98. I'd say only Cracker Jack is as available as E98 now. Maybe E95 too. I believe even E90-1 looks scarcer, based on graded pops.

(Of course there is always the weakness of relying too much on graded pops, as opposed to ungraded cards in collections, but that is true of any such comparison.)

Cheers,
Blair

pcoz · #7 10-02-2012, 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bosox Blair

I don't think so Pete...with those graded pops, E98 is now likely one of the least scarce E sets if you are combining all colors of E98. I'd say only Cracker Jack is as available as E98 now. Maybe E95 too. I believe even E90-1 looks scarcer, based on graded pops.

(Of course there is always the weakness of relying too much on graded pops, as opposed to ungraded cards in collections, but that is true of any such comparison.)

Cheers,
Blair

Blair, I respectfully disagree with them being anywhere near as plentiful as E90-1, Cracker Jacks, E95, E92, E91 or E93's. I'm probably missing some sets too. All of those are without question much easier to find. The National had a gazillion of all of them, and less than 20 E98's/E94's. As I previously mentioned, the Philly show had almost no E98/E94's. There are obviously more E98's now than before after the BSF. But, the BSF cards will end up in high end collections, and the low to mid-grade ones will probably remain extremely difficult to track down. I've been after E98's for years, and I'm sure some of the other fellas on the board can back me up on this.

shammus · #8 10-02-2012, 08:34 PM

Thanks for the kind words, guys!

I suppose I'd be in the group that thinks the BSF will eventually cause a drop in prices as supply continues to increase. Yes, I realize all the new BSF cards are highgrade, but many collectors, including all the set registry guys will see all these highgrade cards and pursue them. Then, if theory holds, they'll put their dupes up on the market creating sort of a trickle down effect.

Also, keep in mind, I don't believe we've seen the bulk of the BSF cards released to auction just yet. What, was there in all? 695 cards to be released over 2 years? I think the majority have yet to appear. I don't think they'll get quite to e95 levels in terms of availability but they'll certainly be in around the e93 or e101 level for sure.

Bosox Blair · #9 10-03-2012, 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pcoz

Blair, I respectfully disagree with them being anywhere near as plentiful as E90-1, Cracker Jacks, E95, E92, E91 or E93's. I'm probably missing some sets too. All of those are without question much easier to find. The National had a gazillion of all of them, and less than 20 E98's/E94's. As I previously mentioned, the Philly show had almost no E98/E94's. There are obviously more E98's now than before after the BSF. But, the BSF cards will end up in high end collections, and the low to mid-grade ones will probably remain extremely difficult to track down. I've been after E98's for years, and I'm sure some of the other fellas on the board can back me up on this.

Hi Pete,

You might well be right. Just to put it out there, I have no horse in this race...I own one nice E98 HOFer as a type card, and I'm not looking to add more.

I just found the whole Black Swamp thing fascinating (as a lot of other collectors did). Back when that was going on - about 3 months ago - I wrote the following post elsewhere in a discussion of the BSF. You might find it interesting, or not:

I have no doubt collectors will absorb these. But I'm not confident the prices will stay up, or rise later.

Let's stay with Wagner. After the Black Swamp find, the PSA pop report shows 75 E98 Wagners...and 38 of those grade PSA 7 or higher!

In terms of caramel cards, 75 PSA slabbed examples is a very high number. And the grading distribution is almost unheard of for caramels - more than half grading over a 7!

Even using 1915 Cracker Jack to compare (in the world of E-cards, these are some of the easiest to find - and highest graded) when we look at Wagner, PSA has graded 86 examples with 26 of those grading 7 or higher (30%).

People like to mention M116 as a set that has remained low-priced because it is so easy to find high-grade examples (I'm not arguing). But look at Wagner in M116. There are two Honus poses - pastel and blue. Both poses combined, PSA has graded 88 examples. Only 14 of 88 have been graded 7 or higher (16%).

How about some other pretty "easy" Wagner E-cards:

E93 Wagner? PSA has graded 66 with 5 achieving 7 or higher (7.5%).

E95 Wagner? PSA has graded 87 with 2 grading 7 or higher (2.3%).

E92 Dockman Wagner - the easier throwing pose? PSA has graded 46 with 1 grading a 7...none higher (2.2%).

I think these comparisons show how this find has destroyed any thoughts of E98 being generally tough...and certainly not tough in high grade for the cards represented in significant numbers in the find.

Cheers,
Blair

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