Black Swamp Find?

[WhenItWasAHobby]

Karl Kissner poses for a photo in front of the door to an attic in his grandfather's old home
on Tuesday, July 10, 2012, where he and a cousin found a collection of century-old baseball
cards in Defiance, Ohio. The cards are from an extremely rare series issued around 1910 and
the best of the bunch — 37 cards — are expected to bring a total of $500,000 when
they are sold at auction in August during the National Sports Collectors Convention in
Baltimore. There are about 700 cards in all that could be worth up to $3 million, experts say.
Photo: John Seewer / AP

[ullmandds]

I'm not sure I understand the comparison to Cracker Jack...or the below logic?


"If the 1915 Cracker Jacks are a good gauge for what they could be worth, then you have to think that the T206 Cobb varieties have good room to run."

[autograf]

I think there's 20+ cousins that all lay claim to the hoard, so about $150K per person. Still a nice windfall when you weren't expecting it! I'd keep my 35 cards if it were me though!

[glynparson]

Baseball card article on the front page of my local paper.

[msohn]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

I'm not sure I understand the comparison to Cracker Jack...or the below logic?


"If the 1915 Cracker Jacks are a good gauge for what they could be worth, then you have to think that the T206 Cobb varieties have good room to run."

I agree - that was poorly written. I am using a relative value approach.

If this Black Swamp Find had just a single E98 Ty Cobb that graded PSA 9, it would probably be worth >$200,000. In this case, this magnificent find produced a mind boggling 16 copies earning a PSA 9 grade. On the one hand, you have one of the earliest and rarest (until now) and finest examples of a Ty Cobb. On the other hand, there are now 16 of these beauties, not just one or two.

Can the market absorb 16 of these cards? I think so. As a comparison, I looked at the 1915 Cracker Jack set, where PSA has graded 8 Ty Cobb cards in PSA 8, 2 in PSA 8.5 and 1 in PSA 9. Despite having a population of 8 copies in PSA 8, this Cobb should be able to command $20,000 to $25,000 if offered for sale (SMR value = $23,000).

So given the significant of the E98 card, and its pristine condition, my bet would be that Heritage could release these cards into the market at $25,000. However, the upside to this card is clearly capped, at what level, I don't know.

[Tsaiko]

Having my morning cup of joe, reading about the find in the LA Times; and what Barry thinks.
http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-...0,221825.story

[barrysloate]

I said a lot more than that....I think I was quoted a bit out of context.

[Leon]

I just received a call from the executor of the estate, Karl. He wants me to express gratitude to some of our board members for all of their help in this discovery. We only had a short (5-10 minute) call as he was taking a call from Canadian Press. . Unfortunately he himself will not be able to attend the National and the auction but he did say that 20+ members of the family will be there. As late breaking news there will be one of the speakers at the Net54baseball Dinner speaking about the find. One thing Karl noted, which is truly newsworthy, is that through this whole monumental find, and windfall of monies to be had, there hasn't been even 1 family argument about it. That really says something about this fine family.

[barrysloate]

I bet they never could have imagined how a small box sitting in their attic would so drastically change their lives. Not only is it a huge financial windfall, but they are getting their 15 minutes of fame, and then some.

[dstudeba]

Originally Posted by Leon

One thing Karl noted, which is truly newsworthy, is that through this whole monumental find, and windfall of monies to be had, there hasn't been even 1 family argument about it. That really says something about this fine family.

Best part of the story. Congratulations to them.

[bosoxphan]

Dman. All i found in my attic was a stash of porn.

[barrysloate]

I'm watching ABC News at 4:00 in NY and there was just a promo for the collection, so they are about to do a story shortly. My guess is all the hour news programs will have something about it today.

[4815162342]

A couple of videos I was asked to share:

http://news.yahoo.com/video/us-15749...-29943252.html

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505263_1...ound-in-attic/

[cobblove]

Heritage Auctions plans to sell most of the Ohio cards over the next two of three years through auctions and private sales so that it doesn't flood the market. In all, they could bring $2 million or $3 million, Ivy said."

Not flood the market???? Thats like 1-2 hounus Wagner a month for the next 3 years. Seems like thats flooding it.

[Matt]

Originally Posted by msohn

I agree - that was poorly written. I am using a relative value approach.

If this Black Swamp Find had just a single E98 Ty Cobb that graded PSA 9, it would probably be worth >$200,000. In this case, this magnificent find produced a mind boggling 16 copies earning a PSA 9 grade. On the one hand, you have one of the earliest and rarest (until now) and finest examples of a Ty Cobb. On the other hand, there are now 16 of these beauties, not just one or two.

Can the market absorb 16 of these cards? I think so. As a comparison, I looked at the 1915 Cracker Jack set, where PSA has graded 8 Ty Cobb cards in PSA 8, 2 in PSA 8.5 and 1 in PSA 9. Despite having a population of 8 copies in PSA 8, this Cobb should be able to command $20,000 to $25,000 if offered for sale (SMR value = $23,000).

So given the significant of the E98 card, and its pristine condition, my bet would be that Heritage could release these cards into the market at $25,000. However, the upside to this card is clearly capped, at what level, I don't know.

There are differences in your comparison that are so wide you could drive a truck through them. The Cracker Jack issue is significantly more popular an issue then this one, to the point it's not even comparable. Even if the demand was the same, talking about pre-war cards, a population of 8 is also very different than a population of 25. Other than the supply being significantly higher and the demand being significantly lower, your analogy is spot on.

[peterose4hof]

There is no denying that up until now the Cracker Jacks have been infinitely more popular than the E98s. While I don't believe the popularity of the E98s will equal or surpass the Cracker Jacks at any point in time, I certainly think this find and all the publicity that comes with it will make the E98s much more popular than they ever were before. In addition, I believe a premium will be paid for all cards denoted as part of the "Black Swamp Find".

[ullmandds]

While I agree this whole thing will heighten awareness of a once pretty obscure set...which may enhance it's collectibility...I'm not so sure the moniker will increase values as there are more slabs with it...then without?!

[Leon]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

While I agree this whole thing will heighten awareness of a once pretty obscure set...which may enhance it's collectibility...I'm not so sure the moniker will increase values as there are more slabs with it...then without?!

I don't know. Many collectors I know will pay a bit more for something with impeccable provenance. We know no card doctors have gotten their mitts on these cards which is more than can be said for a lot of the tiny bordered but highly graded vintage cards we see.

[msohn]

Originally Posted by peterose4hof

There is no denying that up until now the Cracker Jacks have been infinitely more popular than the E98s. While I don't believe the popularity of the E98s will equal or surpass the Cracker Jacks at any point in time, I certainly think this find and all the publicity that comes with it will make the E98s much more popular than they ever were before. In addition, I believe a premium will be paid for all cards denoted as part of the "Black Swamp Find".

I talked to some folks at Heritage today. The one thing that really surprised me was the comment that all of the excitement around the "Black Swamp Find" has perked the interest from collectors in the coin and stamp markets.

In my opinion, if this Find can draw other collectors into our hobby (and beyond just the E98s), then this would be a huge positive for card values.