Greatness Among Us!

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by jayshum

I think the recovery time before being able to pitch again after a second Tommy John surgery is longer than after the first one so the earliest he would be ready to pitch would be 2025. I would think he could hit before then but would probably miss at least the start of 2024 and then just be a DH for whatever part of the season he did play. It will definitely be interesting to see how much teams are willing to guarantee with so much uncertainty about when and what he will be able to contribute. If he doesn't pitch, it would seem like he could still end up with contract offers around what Aaron Judge got from the Yankees or given the uncertainty, does he have to take a short term deal then become a free agent again once he shows what he can still do?

He is hitting tonight as a DH. Is it likely he is going to miss time as a DH?

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

He is hitting tonight as a DH. Is it likely he is going to miss time as a DH?

If he has surgery, there will be a recovery period. Bryce Harper had his Tommy John surgery in late November and returned to play DH in the beginning of May which was a little over 5 months so it's possible if Ohtani has his surgery before this season is over that he's back in time for the start of 2024. However, it's his second time for Tommy John and Harper came back in record time so it's hard to predict how soon it would be for Ohtani to be able to play even as a DH. Assuming everything goes well with his recovery, early in 2024 is a good possibility, but as I said in my earlier post, there's a chance he misses at least some of the start of 2024.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by jayshum

If he has surgery, there will be a recovery period. Bryce Harper had his Tommy John surgery in late November and returned to play DH in the beginning of May which was a little over 5 months so it's possible if Ohtani has his surgery before this season is over that he's back in time for the start of 2024. However, it's his second time for Tommy John and Harper came back in record time so it's hard to predict how soon it would be for Ohtani to be able to play even as a DH. Assuming everything goes well with his recovery, early in 2024 is a good possibility, but as I said in my earlier post, there's a chance he misses at least some of the start of 2024.

Okay, that makes sense. Hopefully he has the surgery soon and is back for the start of 2024.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

But as a DH only are people going to pony up more than DH value for him on the hope that after year one of the contract they get more out of him? Don't get me wrong he's a great hitter, but as just a DH he's not worth a mega contract, and being unsure if he'll ever be more than that again has to dampen the market

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

But as a DH only are people going to pony up more than DH value for him on the hope that after year one of the contract they get more out of him? Don't get me wrong he's a great hitter, but as just a DH he's not worth a mega contract, and being unsure if he'll ever be more than that again has to dampen the market

You don't think he could get a similar contract to what Judge got if he was just going to DH?

[insidethewrapper]

If he has a 2nd Tommy John surgery his pitching days may be at an end, and he becomes an everyday player, again just like The Babe did . He will still be worth a great deal but he is turning 30 next year. Only a few good years left.

It appears when you spend a lot of $$$ on one player, that team doesn't do well. Yankees this year, Trout year after year , Verlander and Scherzer with the Mets etc.

[CJinPA]

Originally Posted by robw1959

I don't agree with this, and don't know how anyone can prove it. Satchell Paige was good enough at about age 58 to throw three shutout innings in an MLB game while opposing Bill Monbouquette. Think of how dominant he must have been in his prime, which was maybe right around 1932. During that same year, 'ol Satch faced the Babe during an exhibition game. In one of those at-bats, he almost got whiplash by spinning his head around with disbelief at seeing one of his fastballs turn into a moonshot monster home run to dead centerfield. This was Ruth at the end of his career. I am fully convinced that Babe Ruth could catch up to any fastball pitched today, as well as any bender that caught too much of the plate. Ruth was the original "Natural" well before Robert Redford.

Ruth absolutely could have caught up with the pitching velocity of today, I'd question anyone who would say otherwise. Where I think he'd be more human-like is with the guys who throw 95+ AND can throw a slider or legit changeup with the same arm angle and arm speed with a release point that mirrors the fastball. That's what todays pitchers strive for!

The game of today is analytics, and in this sense, by the hitters. They guess.. educated guesses, for sure! This is why you see even the greatest hitters of today look foolish on offspeed pitches sometimes. They weren't served the pitch they were supposed to. All according to advanced scouting, tendencies, and preferences of pitchers on the mound, game situation, etc.

This is what Ruth would be today! There is no doubt in my mind.

Two scenarios:
* Take 1927 Ruth and place him in a game today - I suspect he'd struggle! Initially, then make adjustments. It would take time.

* Take any of today's #3 SP on any team and place them in a game in 1927. They would be a top pitcher in the MLB.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by jayshum

You don't think he could get a similar contract to what Judge got if he was just going to DH?

No as Judge has a lot of value in the field as well, and was coming off of a season with 62 home runs. Then add the premium Judge realized due to the fact that if the Yankees hadn't signed him the fan base would've showed up with torches and pitchforks.

The Anaheim fans (both of them) will let out a collective yawn when Ohtani signs elsewhere.

Frankly Judge was a terrible signing as he has been injury prone and big guys don't tend to age well either, but the Yankees almost had to do it. The teams interested in Ohtani will learn from that mistake. I'd be surprised if he gets more than 5 years and $200m. The difference between a great DH and a very good DH doesn't justify $30m/year more of a team's payroll.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

No as Judge has a lot of value in the field as well, and was coming off of a season with 62 home runs. Then add the premium Judge realized due to the fact that if the Yankees hadn't signed him the fan base would've showed up with torches and pitchforks.

The Anaheim fans (both of them) will let out a collective yawn when Ohtani signs elsewhere.

Frankly Judge was a terrible signing as he has been injury prone and big guys don't tend to age well either, but the Yankees almost had to do it. The teams interested in Ohtani will learn from that mistake. I'd be surprised if he gets more than 5 years and $200m. The difference between a great DH and a very good DH doesn't justify $30m/year more of a team's payroll.

5 years and $200m is the same amount per year that Judge got. He just got a 9 year deal which I agree was a mistake given his injury history and the way he is likely to age, but as you said, the Yankees had to do it.

While teams may try to learn from that mistake once teams start bidding against each other, you never know how it will end up if someone decides they really want to sign him.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by jayshum

While teams may try to learn from that mistake once teams start bidding against each other, you never know how it will end up if someone decides they really want to sign him.

Sounds like me on auction night...

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by jayshum

5 years and $200m is the same amount per year that Judge got. He just got a 9 year deal which I agree was a mistake given his injury history and the way he is likely to age, but as you said, the Yankees had to do it.

While teams may try to learn from that mistake once teams start bidding against each other, you never know how it will end up if someone decides they really want to sign him.

It's the same amount per year but leaves off 4 unproductive years at the end. At least at 5 years you have a decent chance of meeting expectations.

[jethrod3]

Guess who is leading the league in both triples and home runs...

If this holds at the end of the season this will have only been the 3rd time it has been accomplished, and never by the Bambino. You need power and speed to pull of this incredible feat!

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by jethrod3

Guess who is leading the league in both triples and home runs...

If this holds at the end of the season this will have only been the 3rd time it has been accomplished, and never by the Bambino. You need power and speed to pull of this incredible feat!

Interesting trivia question. Since 1900, it looks like there are actually 6 different players that have done it (based on what I found via Google searching). 3 of them I'm not that familiar with considering when they played so not sure about their speed. For the other 3, there is one that is surprising because speed is not something you would say about him.

Let's see some guesses.

[Casey2296]

-
Here's a guess Jay.
-

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

-
Here's a guess Jay.
-

All time leader in triples but never led in both triples and homers the same season.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by jayshum

Interesting trivia question. Since 1900, it looks like there are actually 6 different players that have done it (based on what I found via Google searching). 3 of them I'm not that familiar with considering when they played so not sure about their speed. For the other 3, there is one that is surprising because speed is not something you would say about him.

Let's see some guesses.

Willie Mays

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Willie Mays

That's one - 1955

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

I have to assume Cobb did it

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

I have to assume Cobb did it

No, Cobb is not one of the answers.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Dang, he did both, but not in the same year. How 'bout the Mick?

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by jayshum

Interesting trivia question. Since 1900, it looks like there are actually 6 different players that have done it (based on what I found via Google searching). 3 of them I'm not that familiar with considering when they played so not sure about their speed. For the other 3, there is one that is surprising because speed is not something you would say about him.

Let's see some guesses.

Jim Rice?

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Dang, he did both, but not in the same year. How 'bout the Mick?

Yes, Mantle in 1955 which was the same year as Mays in the NL.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Jim Rice?

Yes, Jim Rice in 1978. He's the one that I would not think speed would be a word to describe him, but he had 15 triples that year.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by jayshum

Yes, Jim Rice in 1978. He's the one that I would not think speed would be a word to describe him, but he had 15 triples that year.

Yeah, thought so.


I've gone down the Jim Rice rabbit hole before. He came one triple away from doing it two seasons in a row. He had 30 triples in a two year span, and 38 in a 3 year span.

Don't know how common it is, but he had far more career triples, then he had stolen bases.

Jim Rice has more career triples then Mickey Mantle.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Yeah, thought so.


I've gone down the Jim Rice rabbit hole before. He came one triple away from doing it two seasons in a row. He had 30 triples in a two year span, and 38 in a 3 year span.

Don't know how common it is, but he had far more career triples, then he had stolen bases.

Jim Rice has more career triples then Mickey Mantle.

Which leads me down another rabbit hole.

Stan Musial led the league in triples 5 times. 177 triples against only 78 stolen bases (and a rotten stolen base percentage of barely over 50% at that).

As a matter of fact, Stan has more triples then anybody whose career was entirely in the post-deadball era, except for Paul Waner (who also didn't steal many bases).


.....and the more I look, the more I see that hitting prowess may actually have more to do with triples production, then simply blazing speed.

[Yoda]

Having lived in Japan for many years and becoming a Tokyo Giants fan, I saw Oh and Nagashima play in their prime and always thought they would do as well in MLB as in Japan. Ichiro proved that point, and now we have the incredibly talented Ohtani to marvel at.

Japan has always been baseball mad and fans are terrifically loyal to their teams. The integration of their best players into our game is, I believe, a big positive. Ohtani has become divine over there, probably ranking just below the Emperor.

[jethrod3]

I had Mays and Rice from the live ball era. And of these two I'd have least suspected Rice!

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

interesting thing I found while trying to figure out the last one. Name a player with four HR crowns who had more career triples than Home Runs.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

interesting thing I found while trying to figure out the last one. Name a player with four HR crowns who had more career triples than Home Runs.

Hmmm, it's exactly who I thought it was, so I'll leave it to somebody else to figure out.