Greatness Among Us!
 

Babe Ruth and Shohei Ohtani: eerily similar numbers!!

Babe Ruth: 159 home runs in his first 674 career games with a won/loss record of 35-18 in his first 455 IP's

Shohei Ohtani: 160 home runs in his first 674 games with a win/loss record of 35-19 in his first 455 IP's

Baseball is different than it was in the 80's and lightyears different than in Ruth's era. Amazing we're able to see a modern-day Ruth in the game... stunning, really!

its kind of wild that ohtani is already 29, feels like he just arrived in the league a year or two ago. him missing so much time his first few seasons is going to hurt his ultimate counting stats.

still, the best overall player of this generation

I will always tell people to be careful when making modern player comparisons to Ruth. He was routinely batting against 450' centerfield fences. Even so, in 1921 Babe Ruth managed to hit a 500" homer in every American League ballpark he faced.

https://www.wackyexplorer.com/babe-ruth-longest-homer/

He has been in a bit of a power outage and has dropped to 3rd in hitting on Fangraphs. He is 27th currently in pitching.

I love his hunger to win, I can only hope he wears a Giants uniform next year.

That's amazing - the power that man could generate and with baseballs that weren't wound so tight, it's incredible.

On the flip side, Ruth wasn't facing 3-4 pitchers each night who were fresh and throwing pills at 95 - 102 mph. Think of how many starting pitchers in his era went 9 innings/game, and threw 300+ innings/yr... humans haven't devolved since that era so in pre-war and beyond, the time a lineup got to their 3rd AB in a game, in mid-season, a lot of arms were worn. Never taking away anything from the stars and greats of that era, but it was completely different.

Think of the prep between starts that pitchers go through in the modern era - and Ohtani is doing that and playing full time.... scout the pitching staff w/ film work on non-pitching days, hitting routine, then pitching recovery on start +1 days, start +2, start+ 3, etc.

Just impressive all around! Both players are absolute greats!

And I'm hoping he becomes a Phillie!! Regardless, it wouldn't surprise me to see him as the first $50 million/year player. Amazing!

Ruth made a peak of $80k/yr in 1930. That's equal to just over $1.4 million... TV, internet, international marking and advertising rights have changed EVERYTHING in entertainment - it's crazy!

It's still an "if" but if Ohtani stays healthy, he could play another 15 years and retire in his mid-forties. Ruth retired at age 40 I believe. Ohtani has a definite advantage in that players these days have access to better trainers and health care, and tend to take care of their bodies at least a bit better than those from Ruth's era. Even if he switches to DH full-time in a few years, I think he'll be able to make up for starting so late through by extending the back end of his career---this will take care of the stats even if he performs at just a "good" level his last few years.

Ruth had hot dogs, beer and women. What more could a man ask for??

Good points here.

A few more observations (not to take away from the Bambino, but just some real differences in the game from 100 years ago ):

Ruth only faced AL pitching. There was no interleague play (other than the WS). 8 teams in the AL? And he didn’t face his own team’s pitchers. So the number of pitchers he faced during the season was limited. I suspect he got to know most of them really well.

The league wasn’t integrated, so he was only competing against maybe half of the available talent.

Spray charts and spin rates and all the modern analytics didn’t exist, which seems to benefit pitchers today.

Of course, there are any number of factors that cut the other way as well, some of which have been outlined already.

I could go on, but obviously while we attempt to compare players from vastly different eras, it can be difficult to really feel confident in those comparisons, even when the counting stats are this similar.

Ohtani is a great player and I'm rooting for him, but 674 and 455 is such a meaningless cherrypick of a standard. People have been comparing current-hot-player to Babe Ruth for a century. It's never really been true. Just let Ohtani stand on his own pedestal of accomplishment instead of trying to place him as new Ruth.

I also think it's a non-starter to compare anyone to Ruth.

Since we're talking about what was left out of the stats, it was also left out that while Ruth was hitting his home runs, he was out hitting entire teams on his own. Ohtani is not doing that and another player never will.

Ruth was the single most dominant player there will ever be. No one will ever come close.

I suppose that's true.

Ruth's HRs versus plate appearance order
 

This would be super interesting to research to find out how many of Ruth's HRs occurred during which plate appearance in a game, on average, and compare that to some modern sluggers. I can see a graph of it in my head. Not sure how to extract the data though. Anyone have some extra time on their hands?

Yes, but don't forget, major league pitchers were just throwing wiffle-ball or slow pitch softball speed back in Ruth's day compared to the sheer multitude of Fellers, Koufaxes, and Ryan's today. Remember how I got torched with a flamethrower in an old thread attempting to contradict that idiotic BS?

I agree - over the long haul let Ohtani stand on his own. That said, these can understandably be seen as cherrypicked, but comparing the first 674 and 455 and seeing the similarities is interesting, no? When I saw it, I thought so. And Ruth stopped being a pitcher around his mid-20's I believe (save a few starts here and there later in his career).

I started watching MLB baseball in the late 70's so from then to now is my frame of reference. I'm not aware of anyone comparing the two-way playing abilities of Ruth with anyone. Have there been really good hitting pitchers, sure... the most impressive in my life was Ankiel and what he was able to do but that was more him becoming a position player after the yips on the mound - so not really a comparison there.

As a hitter, I can only imagine Barry Bonds as even coming close to Ruth in his ability to change a game from the offensive side (in the mid-latter part of his career while 'enhanced').... that's another conversation altogether and not worth getting into here.

btw - I love Ruth, was lucky enough to play on the same ballfields in Trenton, NJ that he did while barnstorming. So awesome those days had to be for the common baseball fan!

https://www.trentondaily.com/babe-ru...ambers-street/

Great stuff and well said.

Lefty O'Doul was a pitcher turned hitter and so was Joe Wood, but no one ever says things like "Ohtani is today's Joe Wood". Why not?

Because O'Doul was a mediocre pitcher, and Wood was, at best, an adequate hitter. Neither was outstanding at both skills.

Alan Kleinberger

I am with Greg on this one: let's enjoy Ohtani's great play and leave the comparisons to the HOF debate after he retires. I do have a few takes on what I'd read here.

Ruth might've kept pitching if there had been a DH at the time. From what I've read, he really enjoyed it. Playing a field position and pitching was too much. I doubt Ohtani would last more than a few seasons if he had to play two ways without the DH, unless his intensity was ratcheted way down, but that is definitely not his style (and we love his play for it). Even as a DH and pitcher, he is wearing down this year.

The old-time ballplayers had to cope with horrible conditions that today's players cannot dream of. No HVAC on the trains or the hotels, no planes, no handlers or team staff to handle luggage (Tom Seaver once reminded a young pitcher not to lug his suitcase with his pitching arm), no sports medicine to speak of, crazy training methods (no water in heat, no weights), etc. And don't forget double-headers, terrible pay, rudimentary facilities, and rotten coaching.

As far as the impact of apartheid in MLB, that is a difficult question, but it did not represent a 50% dilution of talent as has been suggested. America's Black population in 1920 was about 10% of the total population, so I doubt that populace would make MLBers at 5x the rate of other populations. The other apples to oranges issue with race is that MLB was 16 teams located in the Northeast and Midwest versus thirty teams now. The number of player slots has gone up by 87.5%. Nor do I think that Ruth or Cobb would have been relegated to the minors with an integrated game. What we would have seen most likely is what we see now: a multi-racial, multi-ethnic panorama of great players.

Pitching is the other great debate. Yes, there are a lot more pitching changes and relievers, and we see lots of heat, but I do not believe that we have evolved as a species in the last 100 years to account for the arm speed. We don't have good measures of earlier pitchers due to the tech. I watched that Nolan Ryan documentary and his 100.9 was more like 108 based on models correcting the tech. Again, I don't think the standouts of the past would have had any problems adapting to the conditions of the present, but I am not sure the 100 pitches max starters and relievers today would adapt to a more robust regime.

True, but Ohtani has won 38 games and may not pitch again after he signs his next contract.

I was only throwing Wood and O'Doul out there because people often forget about their own unique careers. Both players had to completely reinvent themselves and despite being an adequate hitter, Wood still battled his way back into the league and won a World Series in the field while he was at it.

More teams now means more pitchers who wouldn't be in the majors when there are half as many teams like when Ruth played so while Ruth generally didn't face as many different pitchers in a game, the pitchers he did face were probably generally better than the average pitcher today even if they weren't all throwing 100 back then.

It really is tough to compare raw numbers from different eras with so many variables. That's what the advanced stats try to adjust for. One example.

OPS+
Ruth 206
Ohtani 148

I could not be a bigger Ohtani fan, but one more point in defense of Ruth. Think of what pitchers were able to get away with back then when they might only use a few balls per game. The dirt, grime, scuffs, etc. that got onto those balls must have given those pitchers so many extra tricks that Ruth had to deal with. For so many reasons like that it's borderline impossible to compare players across different eras. Sure is fun to try though!

Trying to debate pitching between the eras is total nonsense, no matter what "facts" or "data" or "metrics" you try to justify your arguments with. The pitching was good back then. We know it just was. The pitching is good now. It just is. What is different, and why there aren't and won't be any more .400 hitters, is starters, short relief, middle relief, long relief, situational relief, and closers. That makes it virtually impossible. Very, very unlikely at best. The OP nails it. It is stunning. In this day and age, Ohtani is an enigma. He'll never be Babe Ruth, but it doesn't matter. He's Ohtani in an era of incredibly wealthy, robotic ballplayers. Very popular and yes, a household name.

I'd love to see Ohtani win the Triple Crown and a Cy Young in the same year. Would have to be considered the greatest season of all-time. And it's not as far fetched as it might seem. Ohtani is currently top 3 in each Triple Crown category and the fifth lowest odds to win the Cy Young.

Not trying to pick a fight, but what % would you use? My "half" was intended to be a very, very generic representation.

What would a well trained (physically) Ruth look like and play like today?
Ruth outmanned everyone of his peers in his prime, sometimes out homering entire clubs.
Ruth .690 CAREE slugging %. (By far the greatest)
Ruth won 7 World Series Titles. (3 with the Red Sox, 4 with the Yankees). This has to play somehow in the discussion.

I don't see why anyone would suggest Ruth wouldn't be Ruth in any era. He hit home runs, yeah, but he was also a career 342 hitter. That doesn't happen by accident. He would probably hit over 1,000 home runs if he were playing today in modern stadiums. There's nothing to suggest Ruth couldn't hit a fastball so I don't think an occasional 100 MPH is going to stymie a guy who hit 342 on average.

Surface level:

Ruth hit .365 from the 7th-9th innings with 202 homers. He hit .355 facing a starter the 3rd time and .357 the 4th time. He hit .350 overall against relievers.

Ohtani is a career .274 hitter. He's hitting .279 in the 7th-9th. .290 facing starters for the 3rd time. .267 against relievers.

I could see a team wanting to protect a long term investment in him by not pitching him and maximizing his lifespan. He's not THAT great a pitcher -- right now 27th per Fangraphs -- and the benefit of having him likely to last longer as a day to day hitter may outweigh his value as a pitcher.

There are 87.5% more teams now than in 1920. And rosters are bigger. However, the US population is roughly 220% greater, the game is integrated, and players come from places other than the US.

I thought this thread was going to be about a net54 member.

I thought Geddy Lee was back on here posting again or something. Like a regular poster was going to be on the Tonight Show or something.


Ohtani is fun to watch when he's pitching a 2-0 game with 2 homers of his own. It is kind of a novelty act though. It's not like he's a better player than Yordan Alvarez or Kyle Tucker. Like I would not trade away Mookie Betts for him.

I might trade Betts, but if you offered me Ohtani for Acuna in a situation where I would expect to have either one for many years, I would psss without hesitation.

No offense meant by my response - your statement above is why you wouldn't be an MLB GM.

A #1-3 starting pitcher in the MLB who can throw 190-235 IP/yr are absolute GOLD!! On top of that, the player is a .275+ power bat! If the Braves could lock up Ohtani for 5 years, you bet your last $$$ that they would do a straight-up Ohtani/Acuna deal.

No offense taken, it's just opinions, but I think where we differ is you're assuming it's a safe bet Ohtani will keep producing at his current pace in both positions and I think that's a significant risk. I am not trading away arguably the best position player in baseball, who btw is years younger than Ohtani, for that risk. No thank you.

Agreed - I love the differing opinions and analytics, for sure. Acuna is awesome and (w/ a GM's hat on), I would assume a healthy Ohtani over the next 5 years in this scenario. Acuna is awesome!! But the two-way elite player that Ohtani is would be the difference to me.

Back to the OP, it's cool to see that Ruth and Ohtani are so close at the beginning of their careers.... divergence can happen at any time and probably will. Just a cool snapshot in time!

These are the kinds of posts I love here on Net54. Lot's of opinions, with no real way to confirm who is "right". Just good baseball discussion.

Ruth and Ohtani also are a great example why it's fun to collect both Vintage and Modern baseball cards.

My Ruth cards are some of my FAVORITE CARDS EVER. Because baseball cards of Babe Ruth will always be cool.

However, it's also fun to chase cards of players you can literally see in person, real time. And if one of the players you collect plays at a HOF level, it's satisfying that the "value" of his cards may go up (both intrinsic enjoyment and actual dollar value if you choose to sell).

As for Ohtani, I only have a couple of his cards, but I'm lucky enough to live in KC where he comes to play every year.

I went to a Royals vs Angels game earlier this year and was super entertained to watch Greinke pitch. Greinke was throwing a good game....until Ohtani and Trout hit back to back homers off him.

I was literally watching the Angel's future HOF players beat my Royal future HOF player. Following and collecting the modern game gives us moments like that which you can't get if you only care about vintage baseball players and cards.

100% this!!

Ohtani is closer to Ruth the Joe Wood. Now don't get me wrong he's no Babe Ruth and never will be, but what he's doing is pretty awesome.

Hey Carl, maybe I could be a GM after all? :)

I hope Ohtani can recover and pitch again, but as I said with him or any pitcher there is much more risk than with a day to day player.

Good thing for the DH or no telling how many times he would be hurt.
How's his World Series stats stack up to the Big Bam?

How about it? So sad for him... There is a limit to what the human body can do physically. Throwing 5 oz. objects at 95-103 mph is an incredibly violent action on the body. Every pitcher in today's game is at risk of blowing out a UCL! If the tendons/muscles don't organize just right, or are fatigued, pop!

My guy, Bryce Harper did it last year from the OF... watched that play and he casually rub his elbow but stayed in the game. I said to my son, he just blew out his arm! He can throw 98+ mph from the OF (as can your guy Acuna at over 100 mph)... even OF's will fall victim.

Tip of the cap to GM Spaeth - you did caution about this, for sure!

His injury is a terrible thing for baseball. Yes, the game will go on just fine without him, but he's a unique piece of in-career baseball history. What he is doing isn't generational, it's something we haven't seen on this level of mastery. He's got a Cy Young arm with a MVP bat and that can be easily said without exaggeration.

What he's doing is up there with Barry Bonds 2001-2004. When are we going to see a player on this level again?

Makes you marvel all the more at Ryan. His mechanics with that big leg drive must have been close to perfect. Carlton had remarkable longevity with few injuries as well. I recall he used to swear by long sessions working his arm and elbow in a vat filled with rice. You wonder if these guys today maybe for all the high tech approach aren't doing the best training? So many injuries and a lot of them significant.

Not just the pitchers but the everyday players seem to be more fragile today than they were when there were no million dollar contracts. When you are that young and presumably strong, playing in a no contact sport where you spend more time sitting on your butt or standing on the grass scratching your butt, than running towards a base or a ball, the injuries seem staggering. I have friends who are former professional MMA fighters who sustained fewer injuries getting their teeth kicked in.

I don't agree with this, and don't know how anyone can prove it. Satchell Paige was good enough at about age 58 to throw three shutout innings in an MLB game while opposing Bill Monbouquette. Think of how dominant he must have been in his prime, which was maybe right around 1932. During that same year, 'ol Satch faced the Babe during an exhibition game. In one of those at-bats, he almost got whiplash by spinning his head around with disbelief at seeing one of his fastballs turn into a moonshot monster home run to dead centerfield. This was Ruth at the end of his career. I am fully convinced that Babe Ruth could catch up to any fastball pitched today, as well as any bender that caught too much of the plate. Ruth was the original "Natural" well before Robert Redford.

Sorry; I reread your post just now, and failed to pick up on your sarcasm during my first read.

here's another aspect nobody seems to be talking about. How much does this cost Ohtani in Free Agency? Does it increases his odds of staying with the Angels? Will other teams try and talk him out of pitching?

Some people think a future contract will be two-tiered--$350M for being a hitter, and then an incentive bases contract for his pitching. So if he does little pitching, it would be a far cry from the $500M he was expected last week.

As for whether or not this changes the odds that he will be with Angels is hard to tell. I think that more teams will feel they have a shot because he has become slightly more affordable, but others think the injury pushes him back to the Angels, because of the uncertainty other teams will have.

I think the recovery time before being able to pitch again after a second Tommy John surgery is longer than after the first one so the earliest he would be ready to pitch would be 2025. I would think he could hit before then but would probably miss at least the start of 2024 and then just be a DH for whatever part of the season he did play. It will definitely be interesting to see how much teams are willing to guarantee with so much uncertainty about when and what he will be able to contribute. If he doesn't pitch, it would seem like he could still end up with contract offers around what Aaron Judge got from the Yankees or given the uncertainty, does he have to take a short term deal then become a free agent again once he shows what he can still do?