Surprisingly low WAR

[Seven]

I always believed Alfonso Soriano was much better than his WAR indicated. WAR by itself, is a flawed statistic however.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Seven

I always believed Alfonso Soriano was much better than his WAR indicated. WAR by itself, is a flawed statistic however.

Like many of the other players with similar comments, he had a low OBP because he didn't walk much and he was not rated well on defense with a -10.1 dWAR for his career.

[JollyElm]

oldphotoKidswithCardsWAR.jpg

[packs]

Hard to understand Rick Reuschel's place in the WAR pantheon too. He finished with 69.5, good for the 106th best WAR of all time. Baseball-Reference ranks him as the 32nd best starting pitcher of all time.

Does anyone really believe that?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

Hard to understand Rick Reuschel's place in the WAR pantheon too. He finished with 69.5, good for the 106th best WAR of all time. Baseball-Reference ranks him as the 32nd best starting pitcher of all time.

Does anyone really believe that?

Here's what makes no sense to me. On the four individual metrics that BR uses, he is pretty terrible, but when it comes to JAWS he vaults up to 32nd. What is the explanation here?

Hall of Fame Statistics
Black Ink
Pitching - 7 (440th), Average HOFer ≈ 40
Gray Ink
Pitching - 111 (232nd), Average HOFer ≈ 185
Hall of Fame Monitor
Pitching - 49 (290th), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards
Pitching - 31 (156th), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS
Starting Pitcher (32nd)

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Here's what makes no sense to me. On the four individual metrics that BR uses, he is pretty terrible, but when it comes to JAWS he vaults up to 32nd. What is the explanation here?

Hall of Fame Statistics
Black Ink
Pitching - 7 (440th), Average HOFer ≈ 40
Gray Ink
Pitching - 111 (232nd), Average HOFer ≈ 185
Hall of Fame Monitor
Pitching - 49 (290th), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards
Pitching - 31 (156th), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS
Starting Pitcher (32nd)

JAWS is the Average of career WAR and 7 year peak WAR for a player. The others have to do with things like leading the league in statistical categories or reaching different statistical milestones so Reuschel is definitely seen better by WAR than he is from his basic stats.

[Mike D.]

I think the guys like Reuschel are really interesting...WAR is just one measure, but it's generally a pretty good indicator of a player's overall impact, adjusted for era, park, etc. The players who don't make sense, either because their total seems too high or too low, are interesting to look at to understand why.

With Reuschel, I think it's a combination of throwing a lot of innings and being pretty good at limiting both walks and home runs that makes WAR "like" him more than you may think.

Also, WAR is a counting stat...BBR has him worth 18.3 WAR AFTER his age 35 season....hanging around a long time help.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jayshum

JAWS is the Average of career WAR and 7 year peak WAR for a player. The others have to do with things like leading the league in statistical categories or reaching different statistical milestones so Reuschel is definitely seen better by WAR than he is from his basic stats.

I would bet we can't find another example with THAT huge a disparity.

[brianp-beme]

Do your life a favor...listen and take notes when Freckle Faced Boy Prophet Who Wears Glove as Hat speaks. But it is imperative that while within his presence the rubber bands must, under no circumstances, ever be mentioned.

Brian

Originally Posted by JollyElm

Attachment 628506

gloveashatboyprophet.jpg

[etsmith]

WAR is a good stat but only in combination with other stats. Taken by itself it's not reliable, as shown by many of the examples above.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Bumping this to add another -- Juan Gonzalez, only 38.7. Leaving aside whether he juiced, a dominant slugger for quite a stretch.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Bumping this to add another -- Juan Gonzalez, only 38.7. Leaving aside whether he juiced, a dominant slugger for quite a stretch.

yeah but a dominant slugger in an era where EVERYONE was a slugger to some degree. If he had put up those numbers in the 1970's and early 80's when 35 HR often led the league his WAR would be WAY higher.